Aike Potze

Aike Potze, Fred van Eeuwijk, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis

Plant breeding underpins global food security through incremental, accumulating improvements in crop yield, quality and sustainability, achieved via repeated cycles of crop ranking, selection and crossing. Climate change disrupts this process by altering local growing conditions, thereby shifting the relative performance of crop genotypes. Predicting these relative changes in yield is critical for food security. Yet, this problem remains an open challenge in plant breeding, and relatively unexplored within the AI community. We propose MixINN, an approach that first isolates high-quality genotype-environment interaction labels using mixed models, and then predicts these interactions for new crop varieties in future environmental conditions with a deep neural network. We evaluate our method on a corn multi-environment trial across the continental United States and show improved prediction of genotype ranking over current plant breeding methods. MixINN demonstrated superior performance in identifying the 20% most productive corn genotypes, leading to a 5.8% higher average yield, which further improved to 7.2% when targeting specific growing environments. These are competitive results for real-world breeding programs, demonstrating the potential of AI research in accelerating the development of climate-adapted crops, and improving future food security under climate change.

Vishal Nedungadi, Xingguo Xiong, Aike Potze et al.

Food security remains a global concern as population grows and climate change intensifies, demanding innovative solutions for sustainable agricultural productivity. Recent advances in foundation models have demonstrated remarkable performance in remote sensing and climate sciences, and therefore offer new opportunities for agricultural monitoring. However, their application in challenges related to agriculture-such as crop type mapping, crop phenology estimation, and crop yield estimation-remains under-explored. In this work, we quantitatively evaluate existing foundational models to assess their effectivity for a representative set of agricultural tasks. From an agricultural domain perspective, we describe a requirements framework for an ideal agricultural foundation model (CropFM). We then survey and compare existing general-purpose foundational models in this framework and empirically evaluate two exemplary of them in three representative agriculture specific tasks. Finally, we highlight the need for a dedicated foundational model tailored specifically to agriculture.