Sami Hamdan

Sami Hamdan, Bradley C. Love, Georg G. von Polier et al.

Machine learning (ML) approaches to data analysis are now widely adopted in many fields including epidemiology and medicine. To apply these approaches, confounds must first be removed as is commonly done by featurewise removal of their variance by linear regression before applying ML. Here, we show this common approach to confound removal biases ML models, leading to misleading results. Specifically, this common deconfounding approach can leak information such that what are null or moderate effects become amplified to near-perfect prediction when nonlinear ML approaches are subsequently applied. We identify and evaluate possible mechanisms for such confound-leakage and provide practical guidance to mitigate its negative impact. We demonstrate the real-world importance of confound-leakage by analyzing a clinical dataset where accuracy is overestimated for predicting attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with depression as a confound. Our results have wide-reaching implications for implementation and deployment of ML workflows and beg caution against naïve use of standard confound removal approaches.

Leonard Sasse, Eliana Nicolaisen-Sobesky, Juergen Dukart et al.

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful tools for predictive modeling. ML's popularity stems from the promise of sample-level prediction with applications across a variety of fields from physics and marketing to healthcare. However, if not properly implemented and evaluated, ML pipelines may contain leakage typically resulting in overoptimistic performance estimates and failure to generalize to new data. This can have severe negative financial and societal implications. Our aim is to expand understanding associated with causes leading to leakage when designing, implementing, and evaluating ML pipelines. Illustrated by concrete examples, we provide a comprehensive overview and discussion of various types of leakage that may arise in ML pipelines.