Felix Divo

Felix Divo, Maurice Kraus, Anh Q. Nguyen et al.

Text offers intuitive access to information. This can, in particular, complement the density of numerical time series, thereby allowing improved interactions with time series models to enhance accessibility and decision-making. While the creation of question-answering datasets and models has recently seen remarkable growth, most research focuses on question answering (QA) on vision and text, with time series receiving minute attention. To bridge this gap, we propose a challenging novel time series QA (TSQA) dataset, QuAnTS, for Question Answering on Time Series data. Specifically, we pose a wide variety of questions and answers about human motion in the form of tracked skeleton trajectories. We verify that the large-scale QuAnTS dataset is well-formed and comprehensive through extensive experiments. Thoroughly evaluating existing and newly proposed baselines then lays the groundwork for a deeper exploration of TSQA using QuAnTS. Additionally, we provide human performances as a key reference for gauging the practical usability of such models. We hope to encourage future research on interacting with time series models through text, enabling better decision-making and more transparent systems.

Maurice Kraus, Felix Divo, Devendra Singh Dhami et al.

Time series data is prevalent across numerous fields, necessitating the development of robust and accurate forecasting models. Capturing patterns both within and between temporal and multivariate components is crucial for reliable predictions. We introduce xLSTM-Mixer, a model designed to effectively integrate temporal sequences, joint time-variate information, and multiple perspectives for robust forecasting. Our approach begins with a linear forecast shared across variates, which is then refined by xLSTM blocks. They serve as key elements for modeling the complex dynamics of challenging time series data. xLSTM-Mixer ultimately reconciles two distinct views to produce the final forecast. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate its superior long-term forecasting performance compared to recent state-of-the-art methods while requiring very little memory. A thorough model analysis provides further insights into its key components and confirms its robustness and effectiveness. This work contributes to the resurgence of recurrent models in forecasting by combining them, for the first time, with mixing architectures.

David Steinmann, Felix Divo, Maurice Kraus et al.

Shortcuts, also described as Clever Hans behavior, spurious correlations, or confounders, present a significant challenge in machine learning and AI, critically affecting model generalization and robustness. Research in this area, however, remains fragmented across various terminologies, hindering the progress of the field as a whole. Consequently, we introduce a unifying taxonomy of shortcut learning by providing a formal definition of shortcuts and bridging the diverse terms used in the literature. In doing so, we further establish important connections between shortcuts and related fields, including bias, causality, and security, where parallels exist but are rarely discussed. Our taxonomy organizes existing approaches for shortcut detection and mitigation, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the field and revealing underexplored areas and open challenges. Moreover, we compile and classify datasets tailored to study shortcut learning. Altogether, this work provides a holistic perspective to deepen understanding and drive the development of more effective strategies for addressing shortcuts in machine learning.

Felix Divo, Eric Endress, Kevin Endler et al.

Company fundamentals are key to assessing companies' financial and overall success and stability. Forecasting them is important in multiple fields, including investing and econometrics. While statistical and contemporary machine learning methods have been applied to many time series tasks, there is a lack of comparison of these approaches on this particularly challenging data regime. To this end, we try to bridge this gap and thoroughly evaluate the theoretical properties and practical performance of 24 deterministic and probabilistic company fundamentals forecasting models on real company data. We observe that deep learning models provide superior forecasting performance to classical models, in particular when considering uncertainty estimation. To validate the findings, we compare them to human analyst expectations and find that their accuracy is comparable to the automatic forecasts. We further show how these high-quality forecasts can benefit automated stock allocation. We close by presenting possible ways of integrating domain experts to further improve performance and increase reliability.

Harsh Poonia, Felix Divo, Kristian Kersting et al.

Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one time series can predict-Granger cause-future values of another. Although successful, Granger causal methods still struggle with capturing long-range relations between variables. To this end, we leverage the recently successful Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) architecture and propose Granger causal xLSTMs (GC-xLSTM). It first enforces sparsity between the time series components by using a novel dynamic loss penalty on the initial projection. Specifically, we adaptively improve the model and identify sparsity candidates. Our joint optimization procedure then ensures that the Granger causal relations are recovered robustly. Our experimental evaluation on six diverse datasets demonstrates the overall efficacy of GC-xLSTM.

Arseny Skryagin, Felix Divo, Mohammad Amin Ali et al.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are non-Euclidean deep learning models for graph-structured data. Despite their successful and diverse applications, oversmoothing prohibits deep architectures due to node features converging to a single fixed point. This severely limits their potential to solve complex tasks. To counteract this tendency, we propose a plug-and-play module consisting of three steps: Cluster-Normalize-Activate (CNA). By applying CNA modules, GNNs search and form super nodes in each layer, which are normalized and activated individually. We demonstrate in node classification and property prediction tasks that CNA significantly improves the accuracy over the state-of-the-art. Particularly, CNA reaches 94.18% and 95.75% accuracy on Cora and CiteSeer, respectively. It further benefits GNNs in regression tasks as well, reducing the mean squared error compared to all baselines. At the same time, GNNs with CNA require substantially fewer learnable parameters than competing architectures.

Maurice Kraus, Felix Divo, David Steinmann et al.

In natural language processing and vision, pretraining is utilized to learn effective representations. Unfortunately, the success of pretraining does not easily carry over to time series due to potential mismatch between sources and target. Actually, common belief is that multi-dataset pretraining does not work for time series! Au contraire, we introduce a new self-supervised contrastive pretraining approach to learn one encoding from many unlabeled and diverse time series datasets, so that the single learned representation can then be reused in several target domains for, say, classification. Specifically, we propose the XD-MixUp interpolation method and the Soft Interpolation Contextual Contrasting (SICC) loss. Empirically, this outperforms both supervised training and other self-supervised pretraining methods when finetuning on low-data regimes. This disproves the common belief: We can actually learn from multiple time series datasets, even from 75 at once.

Simon Kohaut, Felix Divo, Navid Hamid et al.

Ensuring reliable and rule-compliant behavior of autonomous agents in uncertain environments remains a fundamental challenge in modern robotics. Our work shows how neuro-symbolic systems, which integrate probabilistic, symbolic white-box reasoning models with deep learning methods, offer a powerful solution to this challenge. This enables the simultaneous consideration of explicit rules and neural models trained on noisy data, combining the strength of structured reasoning with flexible representations. To this end, we introduce the Constitutional Controller (CoCo), a novel framework designed to enhance the safety and reliability of agents by reasoning over deep probabilistic logic programs representing constraints such as those found in shared traffic spaces. Furthermore, we propose the concept of self-doubt, implemented as a probability density conditioned on doubt features such as travel velocity, employed sensors, or health factors. In a real-world aerial mobility study, we demonstrate CoCo's advantages for intelligent autonomous systems to learn appropriate doubts and navigate complex and uncertain environments safely and compliantly.