James Evans

Hongbo Fang, James Evans

Scientific progress has long been understood as recombinant, with breakthroughs arising when existing ideas are joined in new ways. Empirical work in this tradition has focused on the inputs to discovery, asking whether a paper draws together atypical or distant prior knowledge. Far less is known about how knowledge is supplied for downstream recombination, or how individual contributions are forged to play distinct and distant roles in the broader system of science. Using citation networks from tens of millions of publications in OpenAlex and the Web of Science, here we show that scientific contributions stably decompose into three functional types, foundations, extensions, and generalizations, distinguishable by the local structure of their forward citations. This decomposition of the 'functional role' of scientific work presents an unseen pattern of scientific production: foundational and extensional work, which respectively build and elaborate within disciplines, dominated the post-war decades but has declined steadily since the early 1990s, while generalizations, meaning compressed and modular contributions reused in distant fields, have risen sharply. Stacked difference-in-differences analyses that exploit venues' transitions to online access and authors' adoption of large language models provide causal evidence that digital knowledge infrastructure is driving this shift. The locus of innovation has thus migrated from within what Simon might characterize as nearly decomposable disciplinary modules to the interfaces between them, recasting the much-discussed decline of disruption as a structural reorganization of science rather than a slowdown, and revealing a growing misalignment between how science now advances and how it is recognized and rewarded.

Yujin Potter, Shiyang Lai, Junsol Kim et al.

How could LLMs influence our democracy? We investigate LLMs' political leanings and the potential influence of LLMs on voters by conducting multiple experiments in a U.S. presidential election context. Through a voting simulation, we first demonstrate 18 open- and closed-weight LLMs' political preference for a Democratic nominee over a Republican nominee. We show how this leaning towards the Democratic nominee becomes more pronounced in instruction-tuned models compared to their base versions by analyzing their responses to candidate-policy related questions. We further explore the potential impact of LLMs on voter choice by conducting an experiment with 935 U.S. registered voters. During the experiments, participants interacted with LLMs (Claude-3, Llama-3, and GPT-4) over five exchanges. The experiment results show a shift in voter choices towards the Democratic nominee following LLM interaction, widening the voting margin from 0.7% to 4.6%, even though LLMs were not asked to persuade users to support the Democratic nominee during the discourse. This effect is larger than many previous studies on the persuasiveness of political campaigns, which have shown minimal effects in presidential elections. Many users also expressed a desire for further political interaction with LLMs. Which aspects of LLM interactions drove these shifts in voter choice requires further study. Lastly, we explore how a safety method can make LLMs more politically neutral, while raising the question of whether such neutrality is truly the path forward.

Iason Gabriel, Geoff Keeling, Arianna Manzini et al.

The deployment of capable AI agents raises fresh questions about safety, human-machine relationships and social coordination. We argue for greater engagement by scientists, scholars, engineers and policymakers with the implications of a world increasingly populated by AI agents. We explore key challenges that must be addressed to ensure that interactions between humans and agents, and among agents themselves, remain broadly beneficial.

Ningzi Li, Shiyang Lai, James Evans

As large-scale social data explode and machine-learning methods evolve, scholars of entrepreneurship and innovation face new research opportunities but also unique challenges. This chapter discusses the difficulties of leveraging large-scale data to identify technological and commercial novelty, document new venture origins, and forecast competition between new technologies and commercial forms. It suggests how scholars can take advantage of new text, network, image, audio, and video data in two distinct ways that advance innovation and entrepreneurship research. First, machine-learning models, combined with large-scale data, enable the construction of precision measurements that function as system-level observatories of innovation and entrepreneurship across human societies. Second, new artificial intelligence models fueled by big data generate 'digital doubles' of technology and business, forming laboratories for virtual experimentation about innovation and entrepreneurship processes and policies. The chapter argues for the advancement of theory development and testing in entrepreneurship and innovation by coupling big data with big models.

Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Jyrki Alakuijala, James Evans et al.

The fields of Origin of Life and Artificial Life both question what life is and how it emerges from a distinct set of "pre-life" dynamics. One common feature of most substrates where life emerges is a marked shift in dynamics when self-replication appears. While there are some hypotheses regarding how self-replicators arose in nature, we know very little about the general dynamics, computational principles, and necessary conditions for self-replicators to emerge. This is especially true on "computational substrates" where interactions involve logical, mathematical, or programming rules. In this paper we take a step towards understanding how self-replicators arise by studying several computational substrates based on various simple programming languages and machine instruction sets. We show that when random, non self-replicating programs are placed in an environment lacking any explicit fitness landscape, self-replicators tend to arise. We demonstrate how this occurs due to random interactions and self-modification, and can happen with and without background random mutations. We also show how increasingly complex dynamics continue to emerge following the rise of self-replicators. Finally, we show a counterexample of a minimalistic programming language where self-replicators are possible, but so far have not been observed to arise.