Anthony G. Chesebro, David Hofmann, Vaibhav Dixit et al.
Discovering governing equations that describe complex chaotic systems remains a fundamental challenge in physics and neuroscience. Here, we introduce the PEM-UDE method, which combines the prediction-error method with universal differential equations to extract interpretable mathematical expressions from chaotic dynamical systems, even with limited or noisy observations. This approach succeeds where traditional techniques fail by smoothing optimization landscapes and removing the chaotic properties during the fitting process without distorting optimal parameters. We demonstrate its efficacy by recovering hidden states in the Rossler system and reconstructing dynamics from noise-corrupted electrical circuit data, where the correct functional form of the dynamics is recovered even when one of the observed time series is corrupted by noise 5x the magnitude of the true signal. We demonstrate that this method is capable of recovering the correct dynamics, whereas direct symbolic regression methods, such as SINDy, fail to do so with the given amount of data and noise. Importantly, when applied to neural populations, our method derives novel governing equations that respect biological constraints such as network sparsity - a constraint necessary for cortical information processing yet not captured in next-generation neural mass models - while preserving microscale neuronal parameters. These equations predict an emergent relationship between connection density and both oscillation frequency and synchrony in neural circuits. We validate these predictions using three intracranial electrode recording datasets from the medial entorhinal cortex, prefrontal cortex, and orbitofrontal cortex. Our work provides a pathway to develop mechanistic, multi-scale brain models that generalize across diverse neural architectures, bridging the gap between single-neuron dynamics and macroscale brain activity.