Johan Schubert

Johan Schubert, Patrik Hansen, Pontus Hörling et al.

In this paper, we propose a methodology designed to support decision-making during the execution phase of military ground combat operations, with a focus on one's actions. This methodology generates and evaluates recommendations for various courses of action for a mechanized battalion, commencing with an initial set assessed by their anticipated outcomes. It systematically produces thousands of individual action alternatives, followed by evaluations aimed at identifying alternative courses of action with superior outcomes. These alternatives are appraised in light of the opponent's status and actions, considering unit composition, force ratios, types of offense and defense, and anticipated advance rates. Field manuals evaluate battle outcomes and advancement rates. The processes of generation and evaluation work concurrently, yielding a variety of alternative courses of action. This approach facilitates the management of new course generation based on previously evaluated actions. As the combat unfolds and conditions evolve, revised courses of action are formulated for the decision-maker within a sequential decision-making framework.

Johan Schubert, Farzad Kamrani, Tove Gustavi

We develop an active inference route-planning method for the autonomous control of intelligent agents. The aim is to reconnoiter a geographical area to maintain a common operational picture. To achieve this, we construct an evidence map that reflects our current understanding of the situation, incorporating both positive and "negative" sensor observations of possible target objects collected over time, and diffusing the evidence across the map as time progresses. The generative model of active inference uses Dempster-Shafer theory and a Gaussian sensor model, which provides input to the agent. The generative process employs a Bayesian approach to update a posterior probability distribution. We calculate the variational free energy for all positions within the area by assessing the divergence between a pignistic probability distribution of the evidence map and a posterior probability distribution of a target object based on the observations, including the level of surprise associated with receiving new observations. Using the free energy, we direct the agents' movements in a simulation by taking an incremental step toward a position that minimizes the free energy. This approach addresses the challenge of exploration and exploitation, allowing agents to balance searching extensive areas of the geographical map while tracking identified target objects.