Rickard Karlsson

Rickard Karlsson, Bram van den Akker, Felipe Moraes et al.

Qini curves are a widely used tool for assessing treatment policies under allocation constraints as they visualize the incremental gain of a new treatment policy versus the cost of its implementation. Standard Qini curve estimation assumes no interference between units: that is, that treating one unit does not influence the outcome of any other unit. In many real-life applications such as public policy or marketing, however, the presence of interference is common. Ignoring interference in these scenarios can lead to systematically biased Qini curves that over- or under-estimate a treatment policy's cost-effectiveness. In this paper, we address the problem of Qini curve estimation under clustered network interference, where interfering units form independent clusters. We propose a formal description of the problem setting with an experimental study design under which we can account for clustered network interference. Within this framework, we describe three estimation strategies, each suited to different conditions, and provide guidance for selecting the most appropriate approach by highlighting the inherent bias-variance trade-offs. To complement our theoretical analysis, we introduce a marketplace simulator that replicates clustered network interference in a typical e-commerce environment, allowing us to evaluate and compare the proposed strategies in practice.

Rickard Karlsson, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis, Issa J. Dahabreh et al. · eth-zurich

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address this, we propose the QR-learner, a model-agnostic learner that estimates conditional average treatment effects (CATE) within the trial population by leveraging external data from other trials or observational studies. The proposed method is robust: it can reduce the mean squared error relative to a trial-only CATE learner, and is guaranteed to recover the true CATE even when the external data are not aligned with the trial. Moreover, we introduce a procedure that combines the QR-learner with a trial-only CATE learner and show that it asymptotically matches or exceeds both component learners in terms of mean squared error. We examine the performance of our approach in simulation studies and apply the methods to a real-world dataset, demonstrating improvements in both CATE estimation and statistical power for detecting heterogeneous effects.

Laurens Bliek, Arthur Guijt, Rickard Karlsson et al.

Surrogate algorithms such as Bayesian optimisation are especially designed for black-box optimisation problems with expensive objectives, such as hyperparameter tuning or simulation-based optimisation. In the literature, these algorithms are usually evaluated with synthetic benchmarks which are well established but have no expensive objective, and only on one or two real-life applications which vary wildly between papers. There is a clear lack of standardisation when it comes to benchmarking surrogate algorithms on real-life, expensive, black-box objective functions. This makes it very difficult to draw conclusions on the effect of algorithmic contributions and to give substantial advice on which method to use when. A new benchmark library, EXPObench, provides first steps towards such a standardisation. The library is used to provide an extensive comparison of six different surrogate algorithms on four expensive optimisation problems from different real-life applications. This has led to new insights regarding the relative importance of exploration, the evaluation time of the objective, and the used model. We also provide rules of thumb for which surrogate algorithm to use in which situation. A further contribution is that we make the algorithms and benchmark problem instances publicly available, contributing to more uniform analysis of surrogate algorithms. Most importantly, we include the performance of the six algorithms on all evaluated problem instances. This results in a unique new dataset that lowers the bar for researching new methods as the number of expensive evaluations required for comparison is significantly reduced.

Rickard Karlsson, Laurens Bliek, Sicco Verwer et al.

One method to solve expensive black-box optimization problems is to use a surrogate model that approximates the objective based on previous observed evaluations. The surrogate, which is cheaper to evaluate, is optimized instead to find an approximate solution to the original problem. In the case of discrete problems, recent research has revolved around surrogate models that are specifically constructed to deal with discrete structures. A main motivation is that literature considers continuous methods, such as Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes as the surrogate, to be sub-optimal (especially in higher dimensions) because they ignore the discrete structure by, e.g., rounding off real-valued solutions to integers. However, we claim that this is not true. In fact, we present empirical evidence showing that the use of continuous surrogate models displays competitive performance on a set of high-dimensional discrete benchmark problems, including a real-life application, against state-of-the-art discrete surrogate-based methods. Our experiments on different discrete structures and time constraints also give more insight into which algorithms work well on which type of problem.