Eloi Campagne

Eloi Campagne, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude et al.

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is essential for several reasons, especially as the integration of renewable energy sources and the transition to a decentralized network paradigm introduce greater complexity and uncertainty. The proposed methodology leverages graph-based representations to effectively capture the spatial distribution and relational intricacies inherent in this decentralized network structure. This research work offers a novel approach that extends beyond the conventional Generalized Additive Model framework by considering models like Graph Convolutional Networks or Graph SAGE. These graph-based models enable the incorporation of various levels of interconnectedness and information sharing among nodes, where each node corresponds to the combined load (i.e. consumption) of a subset of consumers (e.g. the regions of a country). More specifically, we introduce a range of methods for inferring graphs tailored to consumption forecasting, along with a framework for evaluating the developed models in terms of both performance and explainability. We conduct experiments on electricity forecasting, in both a synthetic and a real framework considering the French mainland regions, and the performance and merits of our approach are discussed.

Eloi Campagne, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude et al.

Many-Task Learning refers to the setting where a large number of related tasks need to be learned, the exact relationships between tasks are not known. We introduce the Cascaded Transfer Learning, a novel many-task transfer learning paradigm where information (e.g. model parameters) cascades hierarchically through tasks that are learned by individual models of the same class, while respecting given budget constraints. The cascade is organized as a rooted tree that specifies the order in which tasks are learned and refined. We design a cascaded transfer mechanism deployed over a minimum spanning tree structure that connects the tasks according to a suitable distance measure, and allocates the available training budget along its branches. Experiments on synthetic and real many-task settings show that the resulting method enables more accurate and cost effective adaptation across large task collections compared to alternative approaches.

Gaspard Abel, Eloi Campagne, Mohamed Benloughmari et al.

Curriculum Learning (CL) is a meta-learning paradigm that trains a model by feeding the data instances incrementally according to a schedule, which is based on difficulty progression. Defining meaningful difficulty assessment measures is crucial and most usually the main bottleneck for effective learning, while also in many cases the employed heuristics are only application-specific. In this work, we propose the Dual-Criterion Curriculum Learning (DCCL) framework that combines two views of assessing instance-wise difficulty: a loss-based criterion is complemented by a density-based criterion learned in the data representation space. Essentially, DCCL calibrates training-based evidence (loss) under the consideration that data sparseness amplifies the learning difficulty. As a testbed, we choose the time-series forecasting task. We evaluate our framework on multivariate time-series benchmarks under standard One-Pass and Baby-Steps training schedules. Empirical results show the interest of density-based and hybrid dual-criterion curricula over loss-only baselines and standard non-CL training in this setting.

Eloi Campagne, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude et al.

Forecasting electricity demand is increasingly challenging as energy systems become more decentralized and intertwined with renewable sources. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm to model spatial dependencies in load data while accommodating complex non-stationarities. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with attention mechanisms and ensemble aggregation strategies to enhance both predictive accuracy and interpretability. Several GNN architectures -- including Graph Convolutional Networks, GraphSAGE, APPNP, and Graph Attention Networks -- are systematically evaluated on synthetic, regional (France), and fine-grained (UK) datasets. Empirical results demonstrate that graph-aware models consistently outperform conventional baselines such as Feed Forward Neural Networks and foundation models like TiREX. Furthermore, attention layers provide valuable insights into evolving spatial interactions driven by meteorological and seasonal dynamics. Ensemble aggregation, particularly through bottom-up expert combination, further improves robustness under heterogeneous data conditions. Overall, the study highlights the complementarity between structural modeling, interpretability, and robustness, and discusses the trade-offs between accuracy, model complexity, and transparency in graph-based electricity load forecasting.