Shi Zhou

Antoine Vendeville, Benjamin Guedj, Shi Zhou

In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours. We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election. We obtain a mean absolute error of 4.74\%. As a side product, our parameters estimates provide meaningful insight on the political landscape, informing us on the proportion of voters that are strong supporters of each of the considered parties.

Antoine Vendeville, Benjamin Guedj, Shi Zhou

We explore a method to influence or even control the diversity of opinions within a polarised social group. We leverage the voter model in which users hold binary opinions and repeatedly update their beliefs based on others they connect with. Stubborn agents who never change their minds ("zealots") are also disseminated through the network, which is modelled by a connected graph. Building on earlier results, we provide a closed-form expression for the average opinion of the group at equilibrium. This leads us to a strategy to inject zealots into a polarised network in order to shift the average opinion towards any target value. We account for the possible presence of a backfire effect, which may lead the group to react negatively and reinforce its level of polarisation in response. Our results are supported by numerical experiments on synthetic data.

Juan Echeverría, Emiliano De Cristofaro, Nicolas Kourtellis et al.

Botnets in online social networks are increasingly often affecting the regular flow of discussion, attacking regular users and their posts, spamming them with irrelevant or offensive content, and even manipulating the popularity of messages and accounts. Researchers and cybercriminals are involved in an arms race, and new and updated botnets designed to defeat current detection systems are constantly developed, rendering such detection systems obsolete. In this paper, we motivate the need for a generalized evaluation in Twitter bot detection and propose a methodology to evaluate bot classifiers by testing them on unseen bot classes. We show that this methodology is empirically robust, using bot classes of varying sizes and characteristics and reaching similar results, and argue that methods trained and tested on single bot classes or datasets might not able to generalize to new bot classes. We train one such classifier on over 200,000 data points and show that it achieves over 97% accuracy. The data used to train and test this classifier includes some of the largest and most varied collections of bots used in literature. We then test this theoretically sound classifier using our methodology, highlighting that it does not generalize well to unseen bot classes. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results, and reasons why some bot classes are easier and faster to detect than others.

Changwang Zhang, Shi Zhou, Elisabetta Groppelli et al.

HIV-1 can disseminate between susceptible cells by two mechanisms: cell-free infection following fluid-phase diffusion of virions and by highly-efficient direct cell-to-cell transmission at immune cell contacts. The contribution of this hybrid spreading mechanism, which is also a characteristic of some important computer worm outbreaks, to HIV-1 progression in vivo remains unknown. Here we present a new mathematical model that explicitly incorporates the ability of HIV-1 to use hybrid spreading mechanisms and evaluate the consequences for HIV-1 pathogenenesis. The model captures the major phases of the HIV-1 infection course of a cohort of treatment naive patients and also accurately predicts the results of the Short Pulse Anti-Retroviral Therapy at Seroconversion (SPARTAC) trial. Using this model we find that hybrid spreading is critical to seed and establish infection, and that cell-to-cell spread and increased CD4+ T cell activation are important for HIV-1 progression. Notably, the model predicts that cell-to-cell spread becomes increasingly effective as infection progresses and thus may present a considerable treatment barrier. Deriving predictions of various treatments' influence on HIV-1 progression highlights the importance of earlier intervention and suggests that treatments effectively targeting cell-to-cell HIV-1 spread can delay progression to AIDS. This study suggests that hybrid spreading is a fundamental feature of HIV infection, and provides the mathematical framework incorporating this feature with which to evaluate future therapeutic strategies.

Changwang Zhang, Shi Zhou, Benjamin M. Chain

LeoTask is a Java library for computation-intensive and time-consuming research tasks. It automatically executes tasks in parallel on multiple CPU cores on a computing facility. It uses a configuration file to enable automatic exploration of parameter space and flexible aggregation of results, and therefore allows researchers to focus on programming the key logic of a computing task. It also supports reliable recovery from interruptions, dynamic and cloneable networks, and integration with the plotting software Gnuplot.

Changwang Zhang, Shi Zhou, Joel C. Miller et al.

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

Changwang Zhang, Shi Zhou, Benjamin M. Chain

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading, local, neighbourhood and global to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conifcker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the trade-off between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.