Martin Harrigan

Thomas Lloyd, Daire Ó Broin, Martin Harrigan

Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAO) can fragment when partisan communities emerge within their governance structures, leading to organisational splits known as "forks". We present a method to detect these emerging communities by analysing on-chain voting behaviour before fragmentation occurs. Our approach extracts voting events from governance smart contracts, constructs voter matrices encoding participation patterns, and applies pairwise dissimilarity analysis to quantify ideological divergence between addresses. We visualise these relationships using multidimensional scaling and identify partisan communities through k-means clustering with silhouette score optimisation. Using Nouns DAO as a case study, a protocol that has experienced multiple documented forks, we demonstrate that addresses destined to fork cluster together months before actual fragmentation events. Our analysis of 330 proposals spanning from contract deployment to the first major fork shows that 90% of fork addresses cluster together in the final 44 proposals, compared to only 47% in randomised data. These results indicate that partisan communities can be detected and visualised through on-chain governance analysis, offering early warnings of emerging divisions before they cause organisational fragmentation.

Liam Hickey, Martin Harrigan

The Bisq DAO is a core component of Bisq, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange. The purpose of the Bisq DAO is to decentralize the governance and finance functions of the exchange. However, by interacting with the Bisq DAO, participants necessarily publish data to the Bitcoin blockchain and broadcast additional data to the Bisq peer-to-peer network. We examine the privacy cost to participants in sharing this data. Specifically, we use a novel address clustering heuristic to construct the one-to-many mappings from participants to addresses on the Bitcoin blockchain and augment the address clusters with data stored within the Bisq peer-to-peer network. We show that this technique aggregates activity performed by each participant: trading, voting, transfers, etc. We identify instances where participants are operating under multiple aliases, some of which are real-world names. We identify the dominant transactors and their role in a two-sided market. We conclude with suggestions to better protect the privacy of participants in the future.

Martin Harrigan, Lei Shi, Jacob Illum

Airdrops are a popular method of distributing cryptocurrencies and tokens. While often considered risk-free from the point of view of recipients, their impact on privacy is easily overlooked. We examine the Clam airdrop of 2014, a forerunner to many of today's airdrops, that distributed a new cryptocurrency to every address with a non-dust balance on the Bitcoin, Litecoin and Dogecoin blockchains. Specifically, we use address clustering to try to construct the one-to-many mappings from entities to addresses on the blockchains, individually and in combination. We show that the sharing of addresses between the blockchains is a privacy risk. We identify instances where an entity has disclosed information about their address ownership on the Bitcoin, Litecoin and Dogecoin blockchains, exclusively via their activity on the Clam blockchain.

Martin Harrigan, Christoph Fretter

Address clustering tries to construct the one-to-many mapping from entities to addresses in the Bitcoin system. Simple heuristics based on the micro-structure of transactions have proved very effective in practice. In this paper we describe the primary reasons behind this effectiveness: address reuse, avoidable merging, super-clusters with high centrality, and the incremental growth of address clusters. We quantify their impact during Bitcoin's first seven years of existence.