Andrew C. Miller

Salar Abbaspourazad, Anshuman Mishra, Joseph Futoma et al.

Modern wearable devices can conveniently record various biosignals in the many different environments of daily living, enabling a rich view of individual health. However, not all biosignals are the same: high-fidelity biosignals, such as photoplethysmogram (PPG), contain more physiological information, but require optical sensors with a high power footprint. Alternatively, a lower-fidelity biosignal such as accelerometry has a significantly smaller power footprint and is available in almost any wearable device. While accelerometry is widely used for activity recognition and fitness, it is less explored for health biomarkers and diagnosis. Here, we show that an accelerometry foundation model can predict a wide variety of health targets. To achieve improved performance, we distill representational knowledge from PPG encoders to accelerometery encoders using 20 million minutes of unlabeled data, collected from ~172K participants in the Apple Heart and Movement Study under informed consent. We observe strong cross-modal alignment on unseen data, e.g., 99.2% top-1 accuracy for retrieving PPG embeddings from accelerometry embeddings. We show that distilled accelerometry encoders have significantly more informative representations compared to self-supervised or supervised encoders trained directly on accelerometry data, observed by at least 23%-49% improved performance for predicting heart rate and heart rate variability. We also show that distilled accelerometry encoders are readily predictive of a wide array of downstream health targets, i.e., they are generalist foundation models. We believe accelerometry foundation models for health may unlock new opportunities for developing digital biomarkers from any wearable device.

Mark Goldstein, Jörn-Henrik Jacobsen, Olina Chau et al.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing \textit{nuisance} variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive \acrshort{mmd} estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Andrew C. Miller, Nicholas J. Foti, Emily B. Fox

Breiman's classic paper casts data analysis as a choice between two cultures: data modelers and algorithmic modelers. Stated broadly, data modelers use simple, interpretable models with well-understood theoretical properties to analyze data. Algorithmic modelers prioritize predictive accuracy and use more flexible function approximations to analyze data. This dichotomy overlooks a third set of models $-$ mechanistic models derived from scientific theories (e.g., ODE/SDE simulators). Mechanistic models encode application-specific scientific knowledge about the data. And while these categories represent extreme points in model space, modern computational and algorithmic tools enable us to interpolate between these points, producing flexible, interpretable, and scientifically-informed hybrids that can enjoy accurate and robust predictions, and resolve issues with data analysis that Breiman describes, such as the Rashomon effect and Occam's dilemma. Challenges still remain in finding an appropriate point in model space, with many choices on how to compose model components and the degree to which each component informs inferences.