Jedrzej Kozal

Radek Svoboda, Sebastian Basterrech, Jedrzej Kozal et al.

Forecasting natural gas consumption, considering seasonality and trends, is crucial in planning its supply and consumption and optimizing the cost of obtaining it, mainly by industrial entities. However, in times of threats to its supply, it is also a critical element that guarantees the supply of this raw material to meet individual consumers' needs, ensuring society's energy security. This article introduces a novel multistep ahead forecasting of natural gas consumption with change point detection integration for model collection selection with continual learning capabilities using data stream processing. The performance of the forecasting models based on the proposed approach is evaluated in a complex real-world use case of natural gas consumption forecasting. We employed Hoeffding tree predictors as forecasting models and the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm for the change point detection procedure. The change point detection integration enables selecting a different model collection for successive time frames. Thus, three model collection selection procedures (with and without an error feedback loop) are defined and evaluated for forecasting scenarios with various densities of detected change points. These models were compared with change point agnostic baseline approaches. Our experiments show that fewer change points result in a lower forecasting error regardless of the model collection selection procedure employed. Also, simpler model collection selection procedures omitting forecasting error feedback leads to more robust forecasting models suitable for continual learning tasks.

Alif Ashrafee, Jedrzej Kozal, Michal Wozniak et al.

Traditional continual learning methods prioritize knowledge retention and focus primarily on mitigating catastrophic forgetting, implicitly assuming that the data distribution of previously learned tasks remains static. This overlooks the dynamic nature of real-world data streams, where concept drift permanently alters previously seen data and demands both stability and rapid adaptation. We introduce a holistic framework for continual learning under concept drift that simulates realistic scenarios by evolving task distributions. As a baseline, we consider Full Relearning (FR), in which the model is retrained from scratch on newly labeled samples from the drifted distribution. While effective, this approach incurs substantial annotation and computational overhead. To address these limitations, we propose Adaptive Memory Realignment (AMR), a lightweight alternative that equips rehearsal-based learners with a drift-aware adaptation mechanism. AMR selectively removes outdated samples of drifted classes from the replay buffer and repopulates it with a small number of up-to-date instances, effectively realigning memory with the new distribution. This targeted resampling matches the performance of FR while reducing the need for labeled data and computation by orders of magnitude. To enable reproducible evaluation, we introduce four concept-drift variants of standard vision benchmarks: Fashion-MNIST-CD, CIFAR10-CD, CIFAR100-CD, and Tiny-ImageNet-CD, where previously seen classes reappear with shifted representations. Comprehensive experiments on these datasets using several rehearsal-based baselines show that AMR consistently counters concept drift, maintaining high accuracy with minimal overhead. These results position AMR as a scalable solution that reconciles stability and plasticity in non-stationary continual learning environments.