Johan Wågberg

Johan Wågberg, Dave Zachariah, Thomas B. Schön

Parametric prediction error methods constitute a classical approach to the identification of linear dynamic systems with excellent large-sample properties. A more recent regularized approach, inspired by machine learning and Bayesian methods, has also gained attention. Methods based on this approach estimate the system impulse response with excellent small-sample properties. In several applications, however, it is desirable to obtain a compact representation of the system in the form of a parametric model. By viewing the identification of such models as a decision, we develop a decision-theoretic formulation of the parametric system identification problem that bridges the gap between the classical and regularized approaches above. Using the output-error model class as an illustration, we show that this decision-theoretic approach leads to a regularized method that is robust to small sample-sizes as well as overparameterization.

Jack Umenberger, Johan Wågberg, Ian R. Manchester et al.

In the application of the Expectation Maximization algorithm to identification of dynamical systems, internal states are typically chosen as latent variables, for simplicity. In this work, we propose a different choice of latent variables, namely, system disturbances. Such a formulation elegantly handles the problematic case of singular state space models, and is shown, under certain circumstances, to improve the fidelity of bounds on the likelihood, leading to convergence in fewer iterations. To access these benefits we develop a Lagrangian relaxation of the nonconvex optimization problems that arise in the latent disturbances formulation, and proceed via semidefinite programming.

Xiuming Liu, Dave Zachariah, Johan Wågberg et al.

Semi-supervised learning methods are motivated by the availability of large datasets with unlabeled features in addition to labeled data. Unlabeled data is, however, not guaranteed to improve classification performance and has in fact been reported to impair the performance in certain cases. A fundamental source of error arises from restrictive assumptions about the unlabeled features, which result in unreliable classifiers that underestimate their prediction error probabilities. In this paper, we develop a semi-supervised learning approach that relaxes such assumptions and is capable of providing classifiers that reliably quantify the label uncertainty. The approach is applicable using any generative model with a supervised learning algorithm. We illustrate the approach using both handwritten digit and cloth classification data where the labels are missing at random.

Johan Wågberg, Dave Zachariah, Thomas B. Schön et al.

This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean square-error (MSE). This approach, however, does not take into account that the statistical model is learned from the data. We show that this omission leads to a systematic underestimation of the prediction errors. Starting from a generalization of the Cramér-Rao bound, we derive a more accurate MSE bound which provides a measure of uncertainty for prediction of Gaussian processes. The improved bound is easily computed and we illustrate it using synthetic and real data examples. of uncertainty for prediction of Gaussian processes and illustrate it using synthetic and real data examples.

Thomas B. Schön, Fredrik Lindsten, Johan Dahlin et al.

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estimation problems arising in SSMs. When combined with additional identification techniques, these algorithms provide solid solutions to the nonlinear system identification problem. We describe two general strategies for creating such combinations and discuss why SMC is a natural tool for implementing these strategies.