James Koch

James Koch, Zhao Chen, Aaron Tuor et al.

Networked dynamical systems are common throughout science in engineering; e.g., biological networks, reaction networks, power systems, and the like. For many such systems, nonlinearity drives populations of identical (or near-identical) units to exhibit a wide range of nontrivial behaviors, such as the emergence of coherent structures (e.g., waves and patterns) or otherwise notable dynamics (e.g., synchrony and chaos). In this work, we seek to infer (i) the intrinsic physics of a base unit of a population, (ii) the underlying graphical structure shared between units, and (iii) the coupling physics of a given networked dynamical system given observations of nodal states. These tasks are formulated around the notion of the Universal Differential Equation, whereby unknown dynamical systems can be approximated with neural networks, mathematical terms known a priori (albeit with unknown parameterizations), or combinations of the two. We demonstrate the value of these inference tasks by investigating not only future state predictions but also the inference of system behavior on varied network topologies. The effectiveness and utility of these methods is shown with their application to canonical networked nonlinear coupled oscillators.

Farbod Ekbatani, Rad Niazadeh, Mehdi Golari et al.

Ride-hailing platforms increasingly rely on non-exclusive notifications-broadcasting a single request to multiple drivers simultaneously-to mitigate inefficiencies caused by uncertain driver acceptance. In this paper, the first in a two-part collaboration with Lyft, we formally model the 'Notification Set Selection Problem' for a single decision cycle, where the platform determines the optimal subset of drivers to notify for each incoming ride request. We analyze this combinatorial optimization problem under two contention-resolution protocols: 'First Acceptance (FA)', which prioritizes speed by assigning the ride to the first responder, and 'Best Acceptance (BA)', which prioritizes match quality by selecting the highest-valued accepting driver. We show that welfare maximization under both mechanisms is strongly NP-hard, ruling out a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme (FPTAS). Despite this, we derive several positive algorithmic results. For FA, we present a Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme (PTAS) for the single-rider case and a constant-factor approximation (factor 4) for the general matching setting. We highlight that the FA valuation function can be viewed as a novel discrete choice model with theoretical properties of independent interest. For BA, we prove that the objective is monotone and submodular, admitting a standard $(1 - 1/e)$-approximation. Moreover, using a polynomial-time demand oracle that we design for this problem, we show it is possible to surpass the $(1 - 1/e)$ barrier. Finally, in the special case of homogeneous acceptance probabilities, we show that the BA problem can be solved exactly in polynomial time via a linear programming formulation. We validate the empirical performance our algorithms through numerical experiments on synthetic data and on instances calibrated using real ride-sharing data from Lyft.

Farbod Ekbatani, Rad Niazadeh, Mehdi Golari et al.

Ride-hailing platforms increasingly face uncertain driver acceptance, which makes traditional one-to-one 'exclusive dispatch (ED)' less efficient: rejections and timeouts force sequential retries and lengthen rider wait times, which in turn creates friction in the marketplace. 'Non-exclusive dispatch (NED)' mitigates this friction by broadcasting a request to multiple drivers in parallel. While NED can reduce latency, it introduces new design challenges -- most notably, how to choose notification sets and how to resolve driver contention (when multiple drivers accept the same ride). In this paper -- the second in a two-part collaboration with Lyft -- we develop a theoretically grounded framework to evaluate the long-run performance and marketplace effects of transitioning from ED to NED. We bridge theory and practice by combining (i) an optimization model that formulates NED as a constrained welfare maximization problem with (ii) large-scale discrete-event simulations on proprietary Lyft traces and (iii) a stylized macroscopic equilibrium model. Across simulation and equilibrium analysis, we find that NED improves key fulfillment metrics relative to ED: it reduces match time (and hence rider reneging) while increasing both the number and the average quality of completed matches. We also quantify the speed--quality trade-off between two common contention resolution rules, 'First-Accept' and 'Best-Accept': First-Accept maximizes speed and throughput, whereas Best-Accept is required to maximize per-match quality. Finally, we show that slightly conservative notification heuristics can improve long-run efficiency by avoiding excessive locking of high-value drivers and preserving future availability.

James Koch, WoongJo Choi, Ethan King et al.

Lumped parameter methods aim to simplify the evolution of spatially-extended or continuous physical systems to that of a "lumped" element representative of the physical scales of the modeled system. For systems where the definition of a lumped element or its associated physics may be unknown, modeling tasks may be restricted to full-fidelity simulations of the physics of a system. In this work, we consider data-driven modeling tasks with limited point-wise measurements of otherwise continuous systems. We build upon the notion of the Universal Differential Equation (UDE) to construct data-driven models for reducing dynamics to that of a lumped parameter and inferring its properties. The flexibility of UDEs allow for composing various known physical priors suitable for application-specific modeling tasks, including lumped parameter methods. The motivating example for this work is the plunge and dwell stages for friction-stir welding; specifically, (i) mapping power input into the tool to a point-measurement of temperature and (ii) using this learned mapping for process control.

James Koch, Thomas Maxner, Vinay Amatya et al.

Fundamental diagrams describe the relationship between speed, flow, and density for some roadway (or set of roadway) configuration(s). These diagrams typically do not reflect, however, information on how speed-flow relationships change as a function of exogenous variables such as curb configuration, weather or other exogenous, contextual information. In this paper we present a machine learning methodology that respects known engineering constraints and physical laws of roadway flux - those that are captured in fundamental diagrams - and show how this can be used to introduce contextual information into the generation of these diagrams. The modeling task is formulated as a probe vehicle trajectory reconstruction problem with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs). With the presented methodology, we extend the fundamental diagram to non-idealized roadway segments with potentially obstructed traffic data. For simulated data, we generalize this relationship by introducing contextual information at the learning stage, i.e. vehicle composition, driver behavior, curb zoning configuration, etc, and show how the speed-flow relationship changes as a function of these exogenous factors independent of roadway design.

James Koch, Pranab Roy Chowdhury, Heng Wan et al.

We present a data-driven machine-learning approach for modeling space-time socioeconomic dynamics. Through coarse-graining fine-scale observations, our modeling framework simplifies these complex systems to a set of tractable mechanistic relationships -- in the form of ordinary differential equations -- while preserving critical system behaviors. This approach allows for expedited 'what if' studies and sensitivity analyses, essential for informed policy-making. Our findings, from a case study of Baltimore, MD, indicate that this machine learning-augmented coarse-grained model serves as a powerful instrument for deciphering the complex interactions between social factors, geography, and exogenous stressors, offering a valuable asset for system forecasting and resilience planning.

Ethan King, Jaime Rodriguez, Diego Llanes et al.

We present a sensor-agnostic spectral transformer as the basis for spectral foundation models. To that end, we introduce a Universal Spectral Representation (USR) that leverages sensor meta-data, such as sensing kernel specifications and sensing wavelengths, to encode spectra obtained from any spectral instrument into a common representation, such that a single model can ingest data from any sensor. Furthermore, we develop a methodology for pre-training such models in a self-supervised manner using a novel random sensor-augmentation and reconstruction pipeline to learn spectral features independent of the sensing paradigm. We demonstrate that our architecture can learn sensor independent spectral features that generalize effectively to sensors not seen during training. This work sets the stage for training foundation models that can both leverage and be effective for the growing diversity of spectral data.

James Koch, Ethan King, WoongJo Choi et al.

This study validates the use of Neural Lumped Parameter Differential Equations for open-loop setpoint control of the plunge sequence in Friction Stir Processing (FSP). The approach integrates a data-driven framework with classical heat transfer techniques to predict tool temperatures, informing control strategies. By utilizing a trained Neural Lumped Parameter Differential Equation model, we translate theoretical predictions into practical set-point control, facilitating rapid attainment of desired tool temperatures and ensuring consistent thermomechanical states during FSP. This study covers the design, implementation, and experimental validation of our control approach, establishing a foundation for efficient, adaptive FSP operations.

James Koch, Brenda Forland, Bruce Bernacki et al.

We present a framework for inferring an atmospheric transmission profile from a spectral scene. This framework leverages a lightweight, physics-based simulator that is automatically tuned - by virtue of autodifferentiation and differentiable programming - to construct a surrogate atmospheric profile to model the observed data. We demonstrate utility of the methodology by (i) performing atmospheric correction, (ii) recasting spectral data between various modalities (e.g. radiance and reflectance at the surface and at the sensor), and (iii) inferring atmospheric transmission profiles, such as absorbing bands and their relative magnitudes.

James Koch, Madelyn Shapiro, Himanshu Sharma et al.

Differential algebraic equations (DAEs) describe the temporal evolution of systems that obey both differential and algebraic constraints. Of particular interest are systems that contain implicit relationships between their components, such as conservation laws. Here, we present an Operator Splitting (OS) numerical integration scheme for learning unknown components of DAEs from time-series data. In this work, we show that the proposed OS-based time-stepping scheme is suitable for relevant system-theoretic data-driven modeling tasks. Presented examples include (i) the inverse problem of tank-manifold dynamics and (ii) discrepancy modeling of a network of pumps, tanks, and pipes. Our experiments demonstrate the proposed method's robustness to noise and extrapolation ability to (i) learn the behaviors of the system components and their interaction physics and (ii) disambiguate between data trends and mechanistic relationships contained in the system.