Marta Ziosi

Alexander K. Saeri, Jess Graham, Michael Noetel et al.

Artificial intelligence poses many risks, ranging from familiar present-day harms to unprecedented and potentially catastrophic ones. Effective risk management requires prioritization: we must understand which risks are most severe, who is most vulnerable, and who is most responsible for addressing them. We report results from a three-round Delphi study conducted late 2025 with 272 international AI experts. Experts rated 24 AI risks on harm probability and severity, sector and actor vulnerability, actor responsibility, and overall concern. Experts estimated the five most severe harms in the next 5 years were likely to come from dangerous capabilities, competitive dynamics, weapons & cyberattacks (including CBRNE), power centralization, and false information. In a business-as-usual scenario, experts judged 18 of 24 risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes (e.g., more than 1 million deaths or more than USD 100B in financial loss) in the next 5 years (2025-2030). In a scenario where pragmatic mitigations are implemented, experts still judged five risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes: dangerous capabilities, weapons & cyberattacks, environmental harm, inequality & unemployment, and power centralization. All 24 risks were judged as being more than 5% likely to cause catastrophic outcomes. AI users and the general public were judged the most vulnerable to these risks, but experts assigned the highest responsibility for addressing them to general-purpose AI developers and governance actors (including governments, regulators, and standards bodies). Across most risks, experts identified information, finance, and national security as the most vulnerable sectors. These findings can guide AI risk prioritization and clarify expert expectations about who should bear responsibility for mitigation.

Marta Ziosi, Miro Plueckebaum, Stephen Casper et al.

Frontier AI both amplifies existing risks and introduces qualitatively novel challenges. Not only is there a notable lack of stable scientific consensus resulting from the rapid pace of technological change, but emerging frontier AI safety practices are often misaligned with, or may undermine, established risk management frameworks. To address these challenges, we systematically surface open problems in frontier AI risk management. Adopting a problem-oriented approach, we examine each stage of the risk management process - risk planning, identification, analysis, evaluation, and mitigation - through a structured review of the literature, identifying unresolved challenges and the actors best positioned to address them. Recognising that different types of open problems call for different responses, we classify open problems according to whether they reflect (a) a lack of scientific or technical consensus, (b) misalignment with, or challenges to, established risk management frameworks, or (c) shortcomings in implementation despite apparent consensus and alignment. By mapping these open problems and identifying the actors best positioned to address them - including developers, deployers, regulators, standards bodies, researchers, and third-party evaluators - this work aims to clarify where progress is needed to enable robust and meaningful consensus on frontier AI risk management.The paper does not propose specific solutions; instead, it provides a problem-oriented, agenda-setting reference document, complemented by a living online repository, intended to support coordination, reduce duplication, and guide future research and governance efforts.

Andrea Cossu, Marta Ziosi, Vincenzo Lomonaco

The increasing attention on Artificial Intelligence (AI) regulation has led to the definition of a set of ethical principles grouped into the Sustainable AI framework. In this article, we identify Continual Learning, an active area of AI research, as a promising approach towards the design of systems compliant with the Sustainable AI principles. While Sustainable AI outlines general desiderata for ethical applications, Continual Learning provides means to put such desiderata into practice.

Vincenzo Lomonaco, Angelo Trotta, Marta Ziosi et al.

In recent years, a rising numbers of people arrived in the European Union, traveling across the Mediterranean Sea or overland through Southeast Europe in what has been later named as the European migrant crisis. In the last 5 years, more than 16 thousands people have lost their lives in the Mediterranean sea during the crossing. The United Nations Secretary General Strategy on New Technologies is supporting the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Robotics to accelerate the achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, which includes safe and regular migration processes among the others. In the same spirit, the central idea of this project aims at using AI technology for Search And Rescue (SAR) operations at sea. In particular, we propose an autonomous fleet of self-organizing intelligent drones that would enable the coverage of a broader area, speeding-up the search processes and finally increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of migrants rescue operations.