Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Lampros Gavalakis, Marcel K. Goh, Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Various lower bounds are established for the entropy of sums, products and their combinations. First, we derive a prime-field analogue of a version of the entropy power inequality established by Tao over torsion-free groups. Next, we prove an entropy sum-product statement: For independent and identically distributed random variables $X,X'$, the maximum of ${\bf H}(X+X')$ and ${\bf H}(XX')$ is bounded below by a linear combination of the entropy and the min-entropy (Rényi entropy of order~$\infty$) of $X$. This result, obtained by bounding entropies of the form ${\bf H}\bigl( X(Y+Z)\bigr)$ from above and below, is valid over arbitrary fields $F$. Over $F={\bf R}$, a slightly stronger inequality is derived. Finally, a weak version of a purely Shannon-entropic sum-product result is developed: If the entropic additive doubling of a random variable $X$ over an arbitrary field is $O(1)$, then its multiplicative doubling is at least proportional to ${\bf H}(X)$.

Sonia Horchidan, Fabian Zeiher, Xiangyu Shi et al.

Querying incomplete knowledge graphs with neural predictors is powerful but dangerous. Errors compound across multi-hop pipelines with no formal bound on the completeness of results. We introduce ConRAD, the first framework to enforce declarative recall guarantees natively within a neural graph database query engine. Given a user-specified risk budget, ConRAD automatically derives per-operator prediction thresholds that satisfy the recall target with finite-sample, distribution-free statistical validity via Conformal Risk Control, while maximizing end-to-end precision. To scale calibration across multi-operator query topologies, we introduce a quantile-space scalarization that reduces intractable high-dimensional threshold searches to a single parameter. We further design the conformal gate, a novel physical operator that dynamically bypasses neural inference when local graph evidence suffices, eliminating unnecessary model inferences in dense graph regions. Evaluated across three benchmarks and three query topologies, ConRAD strictly satisfies all risk budgets, with empirical recall falling below the target by at most 0.046 across all settings. It reduces neural invocations to zero in near-complete graph regions, and achieves precision that matches or exceeds best-case static baselines that offer no guarantees and require manual threshold search.

Terence Viaud, Ioannis Kontoyiannis

A new framework is introduced for examining and evaluating the fundamental limits of lossless data compression, that emphasizes genuinely non-asymptotic results. The {\em sample complexity} of compressing a given source is defined as the smallest blocklength at which it is possible to compress that source at a specifically constrained rate and to within a specified excess-rate probability. This formulation parallels corresponding developments in statistics and computer science, and it facilitates the use of existing results on the sample complexity of various hypothesis testing problems. For arbitrary sources, the sample complexity of general variable-length compressors is shown to be tightly coupled with the sample complexity of prefix-free codes and fixed-length codes. For memoryless sources, it is shown that the sample complexity is characterized not by the source entropy, but by its Rényi entropy of order~$1/2$. Nonasymptotic bounds on the sample complexity are obtained, with explicit constants. Generalizations to Markov sources are established, showing that the sample complexity is determined by the source's Rényi entropy rate of order~$1/2$. Finally, bounds on the sample complexity of universal data compression are developed for families of memoryless sources. There, the sample complexity is characterized by the minimum Rényi divergence of order~$1/2$ between elements of the family and the uniform distribution. The connection of this problem with identity testing and with the associated separation rates is explored and discussed.

Vivek Borkar, Shuhang Chen, Adithya Devraj et al.

The paper concerns the $d$-dimensional stochastic approximation recursion, $$ θ_{n+1}= θ_n + α_{n + 1} f(θ_n, Φ_{n+1}) $$ where $ \{ Φ_n \}$ is a stochastic process on a general state space, satisfying a conditional Markov property that allows for parameter-dependent noise. The main results are established under additional conditions on the mean flow and a version of the Donsker-Varadhan Lyapunov drift condition known as (DV3): (i) An appropriate Lyapunov function is constructed that implies convergence of the estimates in $L_4$. (ii) A functional central limit theorem (CLT) is established, as well as the usual one-dimensional CLT for the normalized error. Moment bounds combined with the CLT imply convergence of the normalized covariance $\textsf{E}[ z_n z_n^T ]$ to the asymptotic covariance in the CLT, where $z_n =: (θ_n-θ^*)/\sqrt{α_n}$. (iii) The CLT holds for the normalized version $z^{\text{PR}}_n =: \sqrt{n} [θ^{\text{PR}}_n -θ^*]$, of the averaged parameters $θ^{\text{PR}}_n =:n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^nθ_k$, subject to standard assumptions on the step-size. Moreover, the covariance in the CLT coincides with the minimal covariance of Polyak and Ruppert. (iv) An example is given where $f$ and $\bar{f}$ are linear in $θ$, and $Φ$ is a geometrically ergodic Markov chain but does not satisfy (DV3). While the algorithm is convergent, the second moment of $θ_n$ is unbounded and in fact diverges. This arXiv version represents a major extension of the results in prior versions.The main results now allow for parameter-dependent noise, as is often the case in applications to reinforcement learning.

Ioannis Papageorgiou, Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Real-valued time series are ubiquitous in the sciences and engineering. In this work, a general, hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework is developed for building mixture models for times series. This development is based, in part, on the use of context trees, and it includes a collection of effective algorithmic tools for learning and inference. A discrete context (or 'state') is extracted for each sample, consisting of a discretised version of some of the most recent observations preceding it. The set of all relevant contexts are represented as a discrete context-tree. At the bottom level, a different real-valued time series model is associated with each context-state, i.e., with each leaf of the tree. This defines a very general framework that can be used in conjunction with any existing model class to build flexible and interpretable mixture models. Extending the idea of context-tree weighting leads to algorithms that allow for efficient, exact Bayesian inference in this setting. The utility of the general framework is illustrated in detail when autoregressive (AR) models are used at the bottom level, resulting in a nonlinear AR mixture model. The associated methods are found to outperform several state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world experiments.

Lawrence Tray, Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Labelled networks are an important class of data, naturally appearing in numerous applications in science and engineering. A typical inference goal is to determine how the vertex labels (or features) affect the network's structure. In this work, we introduce a new generative model, the feature-first block model (FFBM), that facilitates the use of rich queries on labelled networks. We develop a Bayesian framework and devise a two-level Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to efficiently sample from the relevant posterior distribution of the FFBM parameters. This allows us to infer if and how the observed vertex-features affect macro-structure. We apply the proposed methods to a variety of network data to extract the most important features along which the vertices are partitioned. The main advantages of the proposed approach are that the whole feature-space is used automatically and that features can be rank-ordered implicitly according to impact.

Thomas B. Berrett, Ioannis Kontoyiannis, Richard J. Samworth

We study the problem of independence testing given independent and identically distributed pairs taking values in a $σ$-finite, separable measure space. Defining a natural measure of dependence $D(f)$ as the squared $L^2$-distance between a joint density $f$ and the product of its marginals, we first show that there is no valid test of independence that is uniformly consistent against alternatives of the form $\{f: D(f) \geq ρ^2 \}$. We therefore restrict attention to alternatives that impose additional Sobolev-type smoothness constraints, and define a permutation test based on a basis expansion and a $U$-statistic estimator of $D(f)$ that we prove is minimax optimal in terms of its separation rates in many instances. Finally, for the case of a Fourier basis on $[0,1]^2$, we provide an approximation to the power function that offers several additional insights. Our methodology is implemented in the R package USP.

Adithya M. Devraj, Ioannis Kontoyiannis, Sean P. Meyn

Value functions derived from Markov decision processes arise as a central component of algorithms as well as performance metrics in many statistics and engineering applications of machine learning techniques. Computation of the solution to the associated Bellman equations is challenging in most practical cases of interest. A popular class of approximation techniques, known as Temporal Difference (TD) learning algorithms, are an important sub-class of general reinforcement learning methods. The algorithms introduced in this paper are intended to resolve two well-known difficulties of TD-learning approaches: Their slow convergence due to very high variance, and the fact that, for the problem of computing the relative value function, consistent algorithms exist only in special cases. First we show that the gradients of these value functions admit a representation that lends itself to algorithm design. Based on this result, a new class of differential TD-learning algorithms is introduced. For Markovian models on Euclidean space with smooth dynamics, the algorithms are shown to be consistent under general conditions. Numerical results show dramatic variance reduction when compared to standard methods.