Ting-Chuen Pong

Dong Sun, Zezheng Feng, Yuanzhe Chen et al.

Selecting an appropriate model to forecast product demand is critical to the manufacturing industry. However, due to the data complexity, market uncertainty and users' demanding requirements for the model, it is challenging for demand analysts to select a proper model. Although existing model selection methods can reduce the manual burden to some extent, they often fail to present model performance details on individual products and reveal the potential risk of the selected model. This paper presents DFSeer, an interactive visualization system to conduct reliable model selection for demand forecasting based on the products with similar historical demand. It supports model comparison and selection with different levels of details. Besides, it shows the difference in model performance on similar products to reveal the risk of model selection and increase users' confidence in choosing a forecasting model. Two case studies and interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of DFSeer.

Dong Sun, Renfei Huang, Yuanzhe Chen et al.

Production planning in the manufacturing industry is crucial for fully utilizing factory resources (e.g., machines, raw materials and workers) and reducing costs. With the advent of industry 4.0, plenty of data recording the status of factory resources have been collected and further involved in production planning, which brings an unprecedented opportunity to understand, evaluate and adjust complex production plans through a data-driven approach. However, developing a systematic analytics approach for production planning is challenging due to the large volume of production data, the complex dependency between products, and unexpected changes in the market and the plant. Previous studies only provide summarized results and fail to show details for comparative analysis of production plans. Besides, the rapid adjustment to the plan in the case of an unanticipated incident is also not supported. In this paper, we propose PlanningVis, a visual analytics system to support the exploration and comparison of production plans with three levels of details: a plan overview presenting the overall difference between plans, a product view visualizing various properties of individual products, and a production detail view displaying the product dependency and the daily production details in related factories. By integrating an automatic planning algorithm with interactive visual explorations, PlanningVis can facilitate the efficient optimization of daily production planning as well as support a quick response to unanticipated incidents in manufacturing. Two case studies with real-world data and carefully designed interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of PlanningVis.

Mucong Ding, Kai Yang, Dit-Yan Yeung et al.

The effectiveness of learning in massive open online courses (MOOCs) can be significantly enhanced by introducing personalized intervention schemes which rely on building predictive models of student learning behaviors such as some engagement or performance indicators. A major challenge that has to be addressed when building such models is to design handcrafted features that are effective for the prediction task at hand. In this paper, we make the first attempt to solve the feature learning problem by taking the unsupervised learning approach to learn a compact representation of the raw features with a large degree of redundancy. Specifically, in order to capture the underlying learning patterns in the content domain and the temporal nature of the clickstream data, we train a modified auto-encoder (AE) combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) network to obtain a fixed-length embedding for each input sequence. When compared with the original features, the new features that correspond to the embedding obtained by the modified LSTM-AE are not only more parsimonious but also more discriminative for our prediction task. Using simple supervised learning models, the learned features can improve the prediction accuracy by up to 17% compared with the supervised neural networks and reduce overfitting to the dominant low-performing group of students, specifically in the task of predicting students' performance. Our approach is generic in the sense that it is not restricted to a specific supervised learning model nor a specific prediction task for MOOC learning analytics.