John Burden

John Burden, Konstantinos Voudouris, Ryan Burnell et al. · cambridge

As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement layouts that model how task-instance features interact with system capabilities to affect performance. These features must be triangulated in complex ways to be able to infer capabilities from non-populational data -- a challenge for traditional psychometric and inferential tools. Using the Bayesian probabilistic programming library PyMC, we infer different cognitive profiles for agents in two scenarios: 68 actual contestants in the AnimalAI Olympics and 30 synthetic agents for O-PIAAGETS, an object permanence battery. We showcase the potential for capability-oriented evaluation.

Lexin Zhou, Pablo A. Moreno-Casares, Fernando Martínez-Plumed et al. · cambridge

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. Predictable AI is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Ross Gruetzemacher, Alan Chan, Kevin Frazier et al.

Given rapid progress toward advanced AI and risks from frontier AI systems (advanced AI systems pushing the boundaries of the AI capabilities frontier), the creation and implementation of AI governance and regulatory schemes deserves prioritization and substantial investment. However, the status quo is untenable and, frankly, dangerous. A regulatory gap has permitted AI labs to conduct research, development, and deployment activities with minimal oversight. In response, frontier AI system evaluations have been proposed as a way of assessing risks from the development and deployment of frontier AI systems. Yet, the budding AI risk evaluation ecosystem faces significant coordination challenges, such as a limited diversity of evaluators, suboptimal allocation of effort, and perverse incentives. This paper proposes a solution in the form of an international consortium for AI risk evaluations, comprising both AI developers and third-party AI risk evaluators. Such a consortium could play a critical role in international efforts to mitigate societal-scale risks from advanced AI, including in managing responsible scaling policies and coordinated evaluation-based risk response. In this paper, we discuss the current evaluation ecosystem and its shortcomings, propose an international consortium for advanced AI risk evaluations, discuss issues regarding its implementation, discuss lessons that can be learnt from previous international institutions and existing proposals for international AI governance institutions, and, finally, we recommend concrete steps to advance the establishment of the proposed consortium: (i) solicit feedback from stakeholders, (ii) conduct additional research, (iii) conduct a workshop(s) for stakeholders, (iv) analyze feedback and create final proposal, (v) solicit funding, and (vi) create a consortium.

John Burden, Manuel Cebrian, Jose Hernandez-Orallo

Large Language Models (LLMs) present a dual-use dilemma: they enable beneficial applications while harboring potential for harm, particularly through conversational interactions. Despite various safeguards, advanced LLMs remain vulnerable. A watershed case in early 2023 involved journalist Kevin Roose's extended dialogue with Bing, an LLM-powered search engine, which revealed harmful outputs after probing questions, highlighting vulnerabilities in the model's safeguards. This contrasts with simpler early jailbreaks, like the "Grandma Jailbreak," where users framed requests as innocent help for a grandmother, easily eliciting similar content. This raises the question: How much conversational effort is needed to elicit harmful information from LLMs? We propose two measures to quantify this effort: Conversational Length (CL), which measures the number of conversational turns needed to obtain a specific harmful response, and Conversational Complexity (CC), defined as the Kolmogorov complexity of the user's instruction sequence leading to the harmful response. To address the incomputability of Kolmogorov complexity, we approximate CC using a reference LLM to estimate the compressibility of the user instructions. Applying this approach to a large red-teaming dataset, we perform a quantitative analysis examining the statistical distribution of harmful and harmless conversational lengths and complexities. Our empirical findings suggest that this distributional analysis and the minimization of CC serve as valuable tools for understanding AI safety, offering insights into the accessibility of harmful information. This work establishes a foundation for a new perspective on LLM safety, centered around the algorithmic complexity of pathways to harm.

Maurice Chiodo, Dennis Müller, Paul Siewert et al.

We use the notion of oracle machines and reductions from computability theory to formalise different Human-in-the-loop (HITL) setups for AI systems, distinguishing between trivial human monitoring (i.e., total functions), single endpoint human action (i.e., many-one reductions), and highly involved human-AI interaction (i.e., Turing reductions). We then proceed to show that the legal status and safety of different setups vary greatly. We present a taxonomy to categorise HITL failure modes, highlighting the practical limitations of HITL setups. We then identify omissions in UK and EU legal frameworks, which focus on HITL setups that may not always achieve the desired ethical, legal, and sociotechnical outcomes. We suggest areas where the law should recognise the effectiveness of different HITL setups and assign responsibility in these contexts, avoiding human "scapegoating". Our work shows an unavoidable trade-off between attribution of legal responsibility, and technical explainability. Overall, we show how HITL setups involve many technical design decisions, and can be prone to failures out of the humans' control. Our formalisation and taxonomy opens up a new analytic perspective on the challenges in creating HITL setups, helping inform AI developers and lawmakers on designing HITL setups to better achieve their desired outcomes.

Konstantinos Voudouris, Ibrahim Alhas, Wout Schellaert et al. · cambridge

The Animal-AI Environment is a unique game-based research platform designed to facilitate collaboration between the artificial intelligence and comparative cognition research communities. In this paper, we present the latest version of the Animal-AI Environment, outlining several major features that make the game more engaging for humans and more complex for AI systems. These features include interactive buttons, reward dispensers, and player notifications, as well as an overhaul of the environment's graphics and processing for significant improvements in agent training time and quality of the human player experience. We provide detailed guidance on how to build computational and behavioural experiments with the Animal-AI Environment. We present results from a series of agents, including the state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning agent Dreamer-v3, on newly designed tests and the Animal-AI Testbed of 900 tasks inspired by research in the field of comparative cognition. The Animal-AI Environment offers a new approach for modelling cognition in humans and non-human animals, and for building biologically inspired artificial intelligence.

John Burden, Jonathan Prunty, Ben Slater et al.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve strong performance on vision-language tasks, yet their visual processing is opaque. Most black-box evaluations measure task accuracy, but reveal little about underlying mechanisms. Drawing on cognitive psychology, we adapt classic visual search paradigms -- originally developed to study human perception -- to test whether MLLMs exhibit the ``pop-out'' effect, where salient visual features are detected independently of distractor set size. Using controlled experiments targeting colour, size and lighting features, we find that advanced MLLMs exhibit human-like pop-out effects in colour or size-based disjunctive (single feature) search, as well as capacity limits for conjunctive (multiple feature) search. We also find evidence to suggest that MLLMs, like humans, incorporate natural scene priors such as lighting direction into object representations. We reinforce our findings using targeted fine-tuning and mechanistic interpretability analyses. Our work shows how visual search can serve as a cognitively grounded diagnostic tool for evaluating perceptual capabilities in MLLMs.

John Burden, Daniel Kudenko

Potential Based Reward Shaping combined with a potential function based on appropriately defined abstract knowledge has been shown to significantly improve learning speed in Reinforcement Learning. MultiGrid Reinforcement Learning (MRL) has further shown that such abstract knowledge in the form of a potential function can be learned almost solely from agent interaction with the environment. However, we show that MRL faces the problem of not extending well to work with Deep Learning. In this paper we extend and improve MRL to take advantage of modern Deep Learning algorithms such as Deep Q-Networks (DQN). We show that DQN augmented with our approach perform significantly better on continuous control tasks than its Vanilla counterpart and DQN augmented with MRL.