Kevin Murphy

Huiwen Chang, Han Zhang, Jarred Barber et al. · deepmind

We present Muse, a text-to-image Transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art image generation performance while being significantly more efficient than diffusion or autoregressive models. Muse is trained on a masked modeling task in discrete token space: given the text embedding extracted from a pre-trained large language model (LLM), Muse is trained to predict randomly masked image tokens. Compared to pixel-space diffusion models, such as Imagen and DALL-E 2, Muse is significantly more efficient due to the use of discrete tokens and requiring fewer sampling iterations; compared to autoregressive models, such as Parti, Muse is more efficient due to the use of parallel decoding. The use of a pre-trained LLM enables fine-grained language understanding, translating to high-fidelity image generation and the understanding of visual concepts such as objects, their spatial relationships, pose, cardinality etc. Our 900M parameter model achieves a new SOTA on CC3M, with an FID score of 6.06. The Muse 3B parameter model achieves an FID of 7.88 on zero-shot COCO evaluation, along with a CLIP score of 0.32. Muse also directly enables a number of image editing applications without the need to fine-tune or invert the model: inpainting, outpainting, and mask-free editing. More results are available at https://muse-model.github.io

David Dohan, Winnie Xu, Aitor Lewkowycz et al. · anthropic, deepmind

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Joseph Ortiz, Antoine Dedieu, Wolfgang Lehrach et al. · deepmind

Learning from previously collected data via behavioral cloning or offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful recipe for scaling generalist agents by avoiding the need for expensive online learning. Despite strong generalization in some respects, agents are often remarkably brittle to minor visual variations in control-irrelevant factors such as the background or camera viewpoint. In this paper, we present theDeepMind Control Visual Benchmark (DMC-VB), a dataset collected in the DeepMind Control Suite to evaluate the robustness of offline RL agents for solving continuous control tasks from visual input in the presence of visual distractors. In contrast to prior works, our dataset (a) combines locomotion and navigation tasks of varying difficulties, (b) includes static and dynamic visual variations, (c) considers data generated by policies with different skill levels, (d) systematically returns pairs of state and pixel observation, (e) is an order of magnitude larger, and (f) includes tasks with hidden goals. Accompanying our dataset, we propose three benchmarks to evaluate representation learning methods for pretraining, and carry out experiments on several recently proposed methods. First, we find that pretrained representations do not help policy learning on DMC-VB, and we highlight a large representation gap between policies learned on pixel observations and on states. Second, we demonstrate when expert data is limited, policy learning can benefit from representations pretrained on (a) suboptimal data, and (b) tasks with stochastic hidden goals. Our dataset and benchmark code to train and evaluate agents are available at: https://github.com/google-deepmind/dmc_vision_benchmark.

Dustin Tran, Jeremiah Liu, Michael W. Dusenberry et al. · oxford

A recent trend in artificial intelligence is the use of pretrained models for language and vision tasks, which have achieved extraordinary performance but also puzzling failures. Probing these models' abilities in diverse ways is therefore critical to the field. In this paper, we explore the reliability of models, where we define a reliable model as one that not only achieves strong predictive performance but also performs well consistently over many decision-making tasks involving uncertainty (e.g., selective prediction, open set recognition), robust generalization (e.g., accuracy and proper scoring rules such as log-likelihood on in- and out-of-distribution datasets), and adaptation (e.g., active learning, few-shot uncertainty). We devise 10 types of tasks over 40 datasets in order to evaluate different aspects of reliability on both vision and language domains. To improve reliability, we developed ViT-Plex and T5-Plex, pretrained large model extensions for vision and language modalities, respectively. Plex greatly improves the state-of-the-art across reliability tasks, and simplifies the traditional protocol as it improves the out-of-the-box performance and does not require designing scores or tuning the model for each task. We demonstrate scaling effects over model sizes up to 1B parameters and pretraining dataset sizes up to 4B examples. We also demonstrate Plex's capabilities on challenging tasks including zero-shot open set recognition, active learning, and uncertainty in conversational language understanding.

Qingyao Sun, Kevin Murphy, Sayna Ebrahimi et al.

Changes in the data distribution at test time can have deleterious effects on the performance of predictive models $p(y|x)$. We consider situations where there are additional meta-data labels (such as group labels), denoted by $z$, that can account for such changes in the distribution. In particular, we assume that the prior distribution $p(y, z)$, which models the dependence between the class label $y$ and the "nuisance" factors $z$, may change across domains, either due to a change in the correlation between these terms, or a change in one of their marginals. However, we assume that the generative model for features $p(x|y,z)$ is invariant across domains. We note that this corresponds to an expanded version of the widely used "label shift" assumption, where the labels now also include the nuisance factors $z$. Based on this observation, we propose a test-time label shift correction that adapts to changes in the joint distribution $p(y, z)$ using EM applied to unlabeled samples from the target domain distribution, $p_t(x)$. Importantly, we are able to avoid fitting a generative model $p(x|y, z)$, and merely need to reweight the outputs of a discriminative model $p_s(y, z|x)$ trained on the source distribution. We evaluate our method, which we call "Test-Time Label-Shift Adaptation" (TTLSA), on several standard image and text datasets, as well as the CheXpert chest X-ray dataset, and show that it improves performance over methods that target invariance to changes in the distribution, as well as baseline empirical risk minimization methods. Code for reproducing experiments is available at https://github.com/nalzok/test-time-label-shift .

Zeel B Patel, Nipun Batra, Kevin Murphy

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the interpretability of the proposed model by separating the overall uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. We illustrate the usability of derived epistemic uncertainty on active learning problems. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model with various ablations on multiple datasets.

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt, Alexander Y. Shestopaloff et al.

We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform probabilistic online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for generalised (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how the modularity of our framework allows for many existing methods to be reinterpreted as instances of BONE, and it allows us to propose new methods. We compare experimentally existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets, providing insights into the situations that make each method more suitable for a specific task. We provide a Jax open source library to facilitate the adoption of this framework.

Zachary Nado, Neil Band, Mark Collier et al.

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is therefore very important for research and practice alike. Yet, competitive comparisons of methods are often lacking due to a range of reasons, including: compute availability for extensive tuning, incorporation of sufficiently many baselines, and concrete documentation for reproducibility. In this paper we introduce Uncertainty Baselines: high-quality implementations of standard and state-of-the-art deep learning methods on a variety of tasks. As of this writing, the collection spans 19 methods across 9 tasks, each with at least 5 metrics. Each baseline is a self-contained experiment pipeline with easily reusable and extendable components. Our goal is to provide immediate starting points for experimentation with new methods or applications. Additionally we provide model checkpoints, experiment outputs as Python notebooks, and leaderboards for comparing results. Code available at https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines.

Joao Ramos, Yanran Ding, Young-woo Sim et al.

This paper introduces HOPPY, an open-source, low-cost, robust, and modular kit for robotics education. The robot dynamically hops around a rotating gantry with a fixed base. The kit is intended to lower the entry barrier for studying dynamic robots and legged locomotion with real systems. It bridges the theoretical content of fundamental robotic courses with real dynamic robots by facilitating and guiding the software and hardware integration. This paper describes the topics which can be studied using the kit, lists its components, discusses preferred practices for implementation, presents results from experiments with the simulator and the real system, and suggests further improvements. A simple heuristic-based controller is described to achieve velocities up to 1.7m/s, navigate small objects, and mitigate external disturbances when the robot is aided by a counterweight. HOPPY was utilized as the subject of a semester-long project for the Robot Dynamics and Control course at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The positive feedback from the students and instructors about the hands-on activities during the course motivates us to share this kit and continue improving in the future.

Gerardo Duran-Martin, Matias Altamirano, Alexander Y. Shestopaloff et al.

We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with filtering methods such as the extended and ensemble Kalman filter. We use the former to show robustness and the latter to ensure computational efficiency in the case of nonlinear models. Our method matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods (such as those based on variational Bayes) at a much lower computational cost. We show this empirically on a range of filtering problems with outlier measurements, such as object tracking, state estimation in high-dimensional chaotic systems, and online learning of neural networks.

Peter G. Chang, Gerardo Durán-Martín, Alexander Y Shestopaloff et al.

We propose an efficient online approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the parameters of a nonlinear function from a potentially non-stationary data stream. The method is based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF), but uses a novel low-rank plus diagonal decomposition of the posterior precision matrix, which gives a cost per step which is linear in the number of model parameters. In contrast to methods based on stochastic variational inference, our method is fully deterministic, and does not require step-size tuning. We show experimentally that this results in much faster (more sample efficient) learning, which results in more rapid adaptation to changing distributions, and faster accumulation of reward when used as part of a contextual bandit algorithm.

Steven Hickson, Karthik Raveendran, Alireza Fathi et al.

We propose 4 insights that help to significantly improve the performance of deep learning models that predict surface normals and semantic labels from a single RGB image. These insights are: (1) denoise the "ground truth" surface normals in the training set to ensure consistency with the semantic labels; (2) concurrently train on a mix of real and synthetic data, instead of pretraining on synthetic and finetuning on real; (3) jointly predict normals and semantics using a shared model, but only backpropagate errors on pixels that have valid training labels; (4) slim down the model and use grayscale instead of color inputs. Despite the simplicity of these steps, we demonstrate consistently improved results on several datasets, using a model that runs at 12 fps on a standard mobile phone.

David H. Brookes, Akosua Busia, Clara Fannjiang et al.

We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite samples. Because EM sits on a rigorous statistical foundation and has been thoroughly analyzed, this connection provides a new coherent framework with which to reason about EDAs.

Chen Sun, Per Karlsson, Jiajun Wu et al.

We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is trained end-to-end to infer the current state of the (partially observed) world, as well as to forecast future states. We show that our method outperforms various baselines on two sports datasets, one based on real basketball trajectories, and one generated by a soccer game engine.

George Papandreou, Tyler Zhu, Liang-Chieh Chen et al.

We present a box-free bottom-up approach for the tasks of pose estimation and instance segmentation of people in multi-person images using an efficient single-shot model. The proposed PersonLab model tackles both semantic-level reasoning and object-part associations using part-based modeling. Our model employs a convolutional network which learns to detect individual keypoints and predict their relative displacements, allowing us to group keypoints into person pose instances. Further, we propose a part-induced geometric embedding descriptor which allows us to associate semantic person pixels with their corresponding person instance, delivering instance-level person segmentations. Our system is based on a fully-convolutional architecture and allows for efficient inference, with runtime essentially independent of the number of people present in the scene. Trained on COCO data alone, our system achieves COCO test-dev keypoint average precision of 0.665 using single-scale inference and 0.687 using multi-scale inference, significantly outperforming all previous bottom-up pose estimation systems. We are also the first bottom-up method to report competitive results for the person class in the COCO instance segmentation task, achieving a person category average precision of 0.417.

Zbigniew Wojna, Alex Gorban, Dar-Shyang Lee et al.

We present a neural network model - based on CNNs, RNNs and a novel attention mechanism - which achieves 84.2% accuracy on the challenging French Street Name Signs (FSNS) dataset, significantly outperforming the previous state of the art (Smith'16), which achieved 72.46%. Furthermore, our new method is much simpler and more general than the previous approach. To demonstrate the generality of our model, we show that it also performs well on an even more challenging dataset derived from Google Street View, in which the goal is to extract business names from store fronts. Finally, we study the speed/accuracy tradeoff that results from using CNN feature extractors of different depths. Surprisingly, we find that deeper is not always better (in terms of accuracy, as well as speed). Our resulting model is simple, accurate and fast, allowing it to be used at scale on a variety of challenging real-world text extraction problems.

Dustin Tran, Matthew D. Hoffman, Rif A. Saurous et al.

We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as traditional deep learning. For flexibility, Edward makes it easy to fit the same model using a variety of composable inference methods, ranging from point estimation to variational inference to MCMC. In addition, Edward can reuse the modeling representation as part of inference, facilitating the design of rich variational models and generative adversarial networks. For efficiency, Edward is integrated into TensorFlow, providing significant speedups over existing probabilistic systems. For example, we show on a benchmark logistic regression task that Edward is at least 35x faster than Stan and 6x faster than PyMC3. Further, Edward incurs no runtime overhead: it is as fast as handwritten TensorFlow.

Siqi Liu, Zhenhai Zhu, Ning Ye et al.

Current image captioning methods are usually trained via (penalized) maximum likelihood estimation. However, the log-likelihood score of a caption does not correlate well with human assessments of quality. Standard syntactic evaluation metrics, such as BLEU, METEOR and ROUGE, are also not well correlated. The newer SPICE and CIDEr metrics are better correlated, but have traditionally been hard to optimize for. In this paper, we show how to use a policy gradient (PG) method to directly optimize a linear combination of SPICE and CIDEr (a combination we call SPIDEr): the SPICE score ensures our captions are semantically faithful to the image, while CIDEr score ensures our captions are syntactically fluent. The PG method we propose improves on the prior MIXER approach, by using Monte Carlo rollouts instead of mixing MLE training with PG. We show empirically that our algorithm leads to easier optimization and improved results compared to MIXER. Finally, we show that using our PG method we can optimize any of the metrics, including the proposed SPIDEr metric which results in image captions that are strongly preferred by human raters compared to captions generated by the same model but trained to optimize MLE or the COCO metrics.

Jonathan Malmaud, Jonathan Huang, Vivek Rathod et al.

We present a novel method for aligning a sequence of instructions to a video of someone carrying out a task. In particular, we focus on the cooking domain, where the instructions correspond to the recipe. Our technique relies on an HMM to align the recipe steps to the (automatically generated) speech transcript. We then refine this alignment using a state-of-the-art visual food detector, based on a deep convolutional neural network. We show that our technique outperforms simpler techniques based on keyword spotting. It also enables interesting applications, such as automatically illustrating recipes with keyframes, and searching within a video for events of interest.

Nando de Freitas, Kevin Murphy

This is the Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, which was held on Catalina Island, CA August 14-18 2012.