Liliang Ye

Liliang Ye, Yunyao Zhang, Yafeng Wu et al.

Social media platforms serve as central hubs for content dissemination, opinion expression, and public engagement across diverse modalities. Accurately predicting the popularity of social media videos enables valuable applications in content recommendation, trend detection, and audience engagement. In this paper, we present Multimodal Video Predictor (MVP), our winning solution to the Video Track of the SMP Challenge 2025. MVP constructs expressive post representations by integrating deep video features extracted from pretrained models with user metadata and contextual information. The framework applies systematic preprocessing techniques, including log-transformations and outlier removal, to improve model robustness. A gradient-boosted regression model is trained to capture complex patterns across modalities. Our approach ranked first in the official evaluation of the Video Track, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability for multimodal video popularity prediction on social platforms. The source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SMPDVideo.

Liliang Ye, Yunyao Zhang, Yafeng Wu et al.

Social media popularity prediction plays a crucial role in content optimization, marketing strategies, and user engagement enhancement across digital platforms. However, predicting post popularity remains challenging due to the complex interplay between visual, textual, temporal, and user behavioral factors. This paper presents HyperFusion, a hierarchical multimodal ensemble learning framework for social media popularity prediction. Our approach employs a three-tier fusion architecture that progressively integrates features across abstraction levels: visual representations from CLIP encoders, textual embeddings from transformer models, and temporal-spatial metadata with user characteristics. The framework implements a hierarchical ensemble strategy combining CatBoost, TabNet, and custom multi-layer perceptrons. To address limited labeled data, we propose a two-stage training methodology with pseudo-labeling and iterative refinement. We introduce novel cross-modal similarity measures and hierarchical clustering features that capture inter-modal dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate that HyperFusion achieves competitive performance on the SMP challenge dataset. Our team achieved third place in the SMP Challenge 2025 (Image Track). The source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SMPDImage.

Liliang Ye, Guiyi Zeng, Yunyao Zhang et al.

Predicting social media popularity requires understanding both the intrinsic appeal of content and the external context that determines how it is exposed to users. Existing methods focus on content signals but do not separate them from exposure-related patterns, which causes the learned representations to absorb platform-specific visibility effects and weakens both interpretability and cross-platform transfer. This paper introduces OmniTrend, a unified framework that models popularity as the joint outcome of content attractiveness and contextual exposure. The content module learns cross-modal representations from visual, audio, and textual cues to quantify intrinsic appeal, while the context module estimates exposure from exogenous signals such as posting time, author activity, topical trends, and retrieval-based neighborhood statistics. OmniTrend learns separate predictors for content attractiveness and contextual exposure and integrates them in the final popularity estimate, which makes the role of each factor explicit and supports robust transfer across image and video platforms.

Yafeng Wu, Yunyao Zhang, Liliang Ye et al.

Online comments play a crucial role in shaping public sentiment and opinion dynamics on social media. However, evaluating their popularity remains challenging, not only because it depends on linguistic quality, originality, and emotional resonance, but also because stylistic preferences vary widely across platforms and user groups, causing the same comment to resonate differently in different communities. In this work, we present HotComment, a multimodal benchmark integrating video and text modalities that comprehensively quantifies popularity from three enhanced aspects: (1) Content Quality, which evaluates semantic similarity with ground-truth human comments and extends quality assessment through four interpretable dimensions; (2) Popularity Prediction, based on trends from models trained on real-world interaction data; and (3) User Behavior Simulation, which models the distribution of platform users and approximates \textbf{engagement scores} through an agent-based framework. Furthermore, we propose StyleCmt, inspired by social ripple effects, where multiple stylistic dimensions align to amplify socially resonant expressions and suppress incongruent ones.