Adam Wedgbury

Éireann Leverett, Matilda Rhode, Adam Wedgbury

Why wait for zero-days when you could predict them in advance? It is possible to predict the volume of CVEs released in the NVD as much as a year in advance. This can be done within 3 percent of the actual value, and different predictive algorithms perform well at different lookahead values. It is also possible to estimate the proportions of that total volumn belonging to specific vendors, software, CVSS scores, or vulnerability types. Strategic patch management should become much easier, with this uncertainty reduction.

Eirini Anthi, Lowri Williams, Matilda Rhode et al.

The proliferation and application of machine learning based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) have allowed for more flexibility and efficiency in the automated detection of cyber attacks in Industrial Control Systems (ICS). However, the introduction of such IDSs has also created an additional attack vector; the learning models may also be subject to cyber attacks, otherwise referred to as Adversarial Machine Learning (AML). Such attacks may have severe consequences in ICS systems, as adversaries could potentially bypass the IDS. This could lead to delayed attack detection which may result in infrastructure damages, financial loss, and even loss of life. This paper explores how adversarial learning can be used to target supervised models by generating adversarial samples using the Jacobian-based Saliency Map attack and exploring classification behaviours. The analysis also includes the exploration of how such samples can support the robustness of supervised models using adversarial training. An authentic power system dataset was used to support the experiments presented herein. Overall, the classification performance of two widely used classifiers, Random Forest and J48, decreased by 16 and 20 percentage points when adversarial samples were present. Their performances improved following adversarial training, demonstrating their robustness towards such attacks.

Matilda Rhode, Pete Burnap, Adam Wedgbury

Perimeter-based detection is no longer sufficient for mitigating the threat posed by malicious software. This is evident as antivirus (AV) products are replaced by endpoint detection and response (EDR) products, the latter allowing visibility into live machine activity rather than relying on the AV to filter out malicious artefacts. This paper argues that detecting malware in real-time on an endpoint necessitates an automated response due to the rapid and destructive nature of some malware. The proposed model uses statistical filtering on top of a machine learning dynamic behavioural malware detection model in order to detect individual malicious processes on the fly and kill those which are deemed malicious. In an experiment to measure the tangible impact of this system, we find that fast-acting ransomware is prevented from corrupting 92% of files with a false positive rate of 14%. Whilst the false-positive rate currently remains too high to adopt this approach as-is, these initial results demonstrate the need for a detection model which is able to act within seconds of the malware execution beginning; a timescale that has not been addressed by previous work.