Andrey Bernstein

Andrey Bernstein, Daniel Bienstock, David Hay et al.

We consider power line outages in the transmission system of the power grid, and specifically those caused by a natural disaster or a large scale physical attack. In the transmission system, an outage of a line may lead to overload on other lines, thereby eventually leading to their outage. While such cascading failures have been studied before, our focus is on cascading failures that follow an outage of several lines in the same geographical area. We provide an analytical model of such failures, investigate the model's properties, and show that it differs from other models used to analyze cascades in the power grid (e.g., epidemic/percolation-based models). We then show how to identify the most vulnerable locations in the grid and perform extensive numerical experiments with real grid data to investigate the various effects of geographically correlated outages and the resulting cascades. These results allow us to gain insights into the relationships between various parameters and performance metrics, such as the size of the original event, the final number of connected components, and the fraction of demand (load) satisfied after the cascade. In particular, we focus on the timing and nature of optimal control actions used to reduce the impact of a cascade, in real time. We also compare results obtained by our model to the results of a real cascade that occurred during a major blackout in the San Diego area on Sept. 2011. The analysis and results presented in this paper will have implications both on the design of new power grids and on identifying the locations for shielding, strengthening, and monitoring efforts in grid upgrades.

Andrey Bernstein, Cong Wang, Emiliano Dall'Anese et al.

This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for the non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.

Andrey Bernstein, Niek J. Bouman, Jean-Yves Le Boudec

We consider a two-level discrete-time control framework with real-time constraints where a central controller issues setpoints to be implemented by local controllers. The local controllers implement the setpoints with some approximation and advertize a prediction of their constraints to the central controller. The local controllers might not be able to implement the setpoint exactly, due to prediction errors or because the central controller convexifies the problem for tractability. In this paper, we propose to compensate for these mismatches at the level of the local controller by using a variant of the error diffusion algorithm. We give conditions under which the minimal (convex) invariant set for the accumulated-error dynamics is bounded, and give a computational method to construct this set. This can be used to compute a bound on the accumulated error and hence establish convergence of the average error to zero. We illustrate the approach in the context of real-time control of electrical grids.

Andrea Simonetto, Emiliano Dall'Anese, Julien Monteil et al.

This paper develops an online algorithm to solve a time-varying optimization problem with an objective that comprises a known time-varying cost and an unknown function. This problem structure arises in a number of engineering systems and cyber-physical systems where the known function captures time-varying engineering costs, and the unknown function models user's satisfaction; in this context, the objective is to strike a balance between given performance metrics and user's satisfaction. Key challenges related to the problem at hand are related to (1) the time variability of the problem, and (2) the fact that learning of the user's utility function is performed concurrently with the execution of the online algorithm. This paper leverages Gaussian processes (GP) to learn the unknown cost function from noisy functional evaluation and build pertinent upper confidence bounds. Using the GP formalism, the paper then advocates time-varying optimization tools to design an online algorithm that exhibits tracking of the oracle-based optimal trajectory within an error ball, while learning the user's satisfaction function with no-regret. The algorithmic steps are inexact, to account for possible limited computational budgets or real-time implementation considerations. Numerical examples are illustrated based on a problem related to vehicle platooning.

Andrey Bernstein, Lorenzo Reyes-Chamorro, Jean-Yves Le Boudec et al.

The conventional approach for the control of distribution networks, in the presence of active generation and/or controllable loads and storage, involves a combination of both frequency and voltage regulation at different time scales. With the increased penetration of stochastic resources, distributed generation and demand response, this approach shows severe limitations in both the optimal and feasible operation of these networks, as well as in the aggregation of the network resources for upper-layer power systems. An alternative approach is to directly control the targeted grid by defining explicit and real-time setpoints for active/reactive power absorptions/injections defined by a solution of a specific optimization problem; but this quickly becomes intractable when systems get large or diverse. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a method for the explicit control of the grid status, based on a common abstract model characterized by the main property of being composable. That is to say, subsystems can be aggregated into virtual devices that hide their internal complexity. Thus the proposed method can easily cope with systems of any size or complexity. The framework is presented in this Part I, whilst in Part II we illustrate its application to a CIGRÉ low voltage benchmark microgrid. In particular, we provide implementation examples with respect to typical devices connected to distribution networks and evaluate of the performance and benefits of the proposed control framework.

Guido Cavraro, Andrey Bernstein, Emiliano Dall'Anese

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. To address this challenge, the paper proposes to employ stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategies to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response. The paper then establishes theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach and validates its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

Boyu Yao, Andrey Bernstein, Yury Dvorkin

Rising electricity demand underscores the need for secure and reliable generation expansion planning that accounts for upstream supply chain constraints. Traditional models often overlook limitations in materials, manufacturing capacity, lead times for deployment, and field availability, which can delay availability of planned resources and thus to threaten system reliability. This paper introduces a multi-stage supply chain-constrained generation expansion planning (SC-GEP) model that optimizes long-term investments while capturing material availability, production limits, spatial and temporal constraints, and material reuse from retired assets. A decomposition algorithm efficiently solves the resulting MILP. A Maryland case study shows that supply chain constraints shift technology choices, amplify deployment delays caused by lead times, and prompt earlier investment in shorter lead-time, low-material-intensity options. In the low-demand scenario, supply chain constraints raise investment costs by $1.2 billion. Under high demand, persistent generation and reserve shortfalls emerge, underscoring the need to integrate upstream constraints into long-term planning.

Shuhang Chen, Adithya Devraj, Andrey Bernstein et al.

The ODE method has been a workhorse for algorithm design and analysis since the introduction of the stochastic approximation. It is now understood that convergence theory amounts to establishing robustness of Euler approximations for ODEs, while theory of rates of convergence requires finer analysis. This paper sets out to extend this theory to quasi-stochastic approximation, based on algorithms in which the "noise" is based on deterministic signals. The main results are obtained under minimal assumptions: the usual Lipschitz conditions for ODE vector fields, and it is assumed that there is a well defined linearization near the optimal parameter $θ^*$, with Hurwitz linearization matrix $A^*$. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (i) If the algorithm gain is $a_t=g/(1+t)^ρ$ with $g>0$ and $ρ\in(0,1)$, then the rate of convergence of the algorithm is $1/t^ρ$. There is also a well defined "finite-$t$" approximation: \[ a_t^{-1}\{Θ_t-θ^*\}=\bar{Y}+Ξ^{\mathrm{I}}_t+o(1) \] where $\bar{Y}\in\mathbb{R}^d$ is a vector identified in the paper, and $\{Ξ^{\mathrm{I}}_t\}$ is bounded with zero temporal mean. (ii) With gain $a_t = g/(1+t)$ the results are not as sharp: the rate of convergence $1/t$ holds only if $I + g A^*$ is Hurwitz. (iii) Based on the Ruppert-Polyak averaging of stochastic approximation, one would expect that a convergence rate of $1/t$ can be obtained by averaging: \[ Θ^{\text{RP}}_T=\frac{1}{T}\int_{0}^T Θ_t\,dt \] where the estimates $\{Θ_t\}$ are obtained using the gain in (i). The preceding sharp bounds imply that averaging results in $1/t$ convergence rate if and only if $\bar{Y}=\sf 0$. This condition holds if the noise is additive, but appears to fail in general. (iv) The theory is illustrated with applications to gradient-free optimization and policy gradient algorithms for reinforcement learning.

Ahmed S. Zamzam, Yajing Liu, Andrey Bernstein

As electric grids experience high penetration levels of renewable generation, fundamental changes are required to address real-time situational awareness. This paper uses unique traits of tensors to devise a model-free situational awareness and energy forecasting framework for distribution networks. This work formulates the state of the network at multiple time instants as a three-way tensor; hence, recovering full state information of the network is tantamount to estimating all the values of the tensor. Given measurements received from $μ$phasor measurement units and/or smart meters, the recovery of unobserved quantities is carried out using the low-rank canonical polyadic decomposition of the state tensor---that is, the state estimation task is posed as a tensor imputation problem utilizing observed patterns in measured quantities. Two structured sampling schemes are considered: slab sampling and fiber sampling. For both schemes, we present sufficient conditions on the number of sampled slabs and fibers that guarantee identifiability of the factors of the state tensor. Numerical results demonstrate the ability of the proposed framework to achieve high estimation accuracy in multiple sampling scenarios.

Jonatan Ostrometzky, Konstantin Berestizshevsky, Andrey Bernstein et al.

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

Bo Liu, Hongyu Wu, Yingchen Zhang et al.

Due to the insufficient measurements in the distribution system state estimation (DSSE), full observability and redundant measurements are difficult to achieve without using the pseudo measurements. The matrix completion state estimation (MCSE) combines the matrix completion and power system model to estimate voltage by exploring the low-rank characteristics of the matrix. This paper proposes a robust matrix completion state estimation (RMCSE) to estimate the voltage in a distribution system under a low-observability condition. Tradition state estimation weighted least squares (WLS) method requires full observability to calculate the states and needs redundant measurements to proceed a bad data detection. The proposed method improves the robustness of the MCSE to bad data by minimizing the rank of the matrix and measurements residual with different weights. It can estimate the system state in a low-observability system and has robust estimates without the bad data detection process in the face of multiple bad data. The method is numerically evaluated on the IEEE 33-node radial distribution system. The estimation performance and robustness of RMCSE are compared with the WLS with the largest normalized residual bad data identification (WLS-LNR), and the MCSE.

Andrey Bernstein

This paper considers a bi-level discrete-time control framework with real-time constraints, consisting of several local controllers and a central controller. The objective is to bridge the gap between the online convex optimization and real-time control literature by proposing an online control algorithm with small dynamic regret, which is a natural performance criterion in nonstationary environments related to real-time control problems. We illustrate how the proposed algorithm can be applied to real-time control of power setpoints in an electrical grid.

Andrey Bernstein, Nahum Shimkin

Approachability theory, introduced by Blackwell (1956), provides fundamental results on repeated games with vector-valued payoffs, and has been usefully applied since in the theory of learning in games and to learning algorithms in the online adversarial setup. Given a repeated game with vector payoffs, a target set $S$ is approachable by a certain player (the agent) if he can ensure that the average payoff vector converges to that set no matter what his adversary opponent does. Blackwell provided two equivalent sets of conditions for a convex set to be approachable. The first (primary) condition is a geometric separation condition, while the second (dual) condition requires that the set be {\em non-excludable}, namely that for every mixed action of the opponent there exists a mixed action of the agent (a {\em response}) such that the resulting payoff vector belongs to $S$. Existing approachability algorithms rely on the primal condition and essentially require to compute at each stage a projection direction from a given point to $S$. In this paper, we introduce an approachability algorithm that relies on Blackwell's {\em dual} condition. Thus, rather than projection, the algorithm relies on computation of the response to a certain action of the opponent at each stage. The utility of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by applying it to certain generalizations of the classical regret minimization problem, which include regret minimization with side constraints and regret minimization for global cost functions. In these problems, computation of the required projections is generally complex but a response is readily obtainable.