Francesco Pinto

LG
h-index116
23papers
687citations
Novelty52%
AI Score59

23 Papers

CVJul 13, 2022Code
Sample-dependent Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Improved Calibration

Tom Joy, Francesco Pinto, Ser-Nam Lim et al.

It is now well known that neural networks can be wrong with high confidence in their predictions, leading to poor calibration. The most common post-hoc approach to compensate for this is to perform temperature scaling, which adjusts the confidences of the predictions on any input by scaling the logits by a fixed value. Whilst this approach typically improves the average calibration across the whole test dataset, this improvement typically reduces the individual confidences of the predictions irrespective of whether the classification of a given input is correct or incorrect. With this insight, we base our method on the observation that different samples contribute to the calibration error by varying amounts, with some needing to increase their confidence and others needing to decrease it. Therefore, for each input, we propose to predict a different temperature value, allowing us to adjust the mismatch between confidence and accuracy at a finer granularity. Furthermore, we observe improved results on OOD detection and can also extract a notion of hardness for the data-points. Our method is applied post-hoc, consequently using very little computation time and with a negligible memory footprint and is applied to off-the-shelf pre-trained classifiers. We test our method on the ResNet50 and WideResNet28-10 architectures using the CIFAR10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet datasets, showing that producing per-data-point temperatures is beneficial also for the expected calibration error across the whole test set. Code is available at: https://github.com/thwjoy/adats.

CVJul 22, 2022
An Impartial Take to the CNN vs Transformer Robustness Contest

Francesco Pinto, Philip H. S. Torr, Puneet K. Dokania

Following the surge of popularity of Transformers in Computer Vision, several studies have attempted to determine whether they could be more robust to distribution shifts and provide better uncertainty estimates than Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The almost unanimous conclusion is that they are, and it is often conjectured more or less explicitly that the reason of this supposed superiority is to be attributed to the self-attention mechanism. In this paper we perform extensive empirical analyses showing that recent state-of-the-art CNNs (particularly, ConvNeXt) can be as robust and reliable or even sometimes more than the current state-of-the-art Transformers. However, there is no clear winner. Therefore, although it is tempting to state the definitive superiority of one family of architectures over another, they seem to enjoy similar extraordinary performances on a variety of tasks while also suffering from similar vulnerabilities such as texture, background, and simplicity biases.

LGJun 29, 2022
RegMixup: Mixup as a Regularizer Can Surprisingly Improve Accuracy and Out Distribution Robustness

Francesco Pinto, Harry Yang, Ser-Nam Lim et al.

We show that the effectiveness of the well celebrated Mixup [Zhang et al., 2018] can be further improved if instead of using it as the sole learning objective, it is utilized as an additional regularizer to the standard cross-entropy loss. This simple change not only provides much improved accuracy but also significantly improves the quality of the predictive uncertainty estimation of Mixup in most cases under various forms of covariate shifts and out-of-distribution detection experiments. In fact, we observe that Mixup yields much degraded performance on detecting out-of-distribution samples possibly, as we show empirically, because of its tendency to learn models that exhibit high-entropy throughout; making it difficult to differentiate in-distribution samples from out-distribution ones. To show the efficacy of our approach (RegMixup), we provide thorough analyses and experiments on vision datasets (ImageNet & CIFAR-10/100) and compare it with a suite of recent approaches for reliable uncertainty estimation.

LGJun 6, 2023
PILLAR: How to make semi-private learning more effective

Francesco Pinto, Yaxi Hu, Fanny Yang et al. · oxford

In Semi-Supervised Semi-Private (SP) learning, the learner has access to both public unlabelled and private labelled data. We propose a computationally efficient algorithm that, under mild assumptions on the data, provably achieves significantly lower private labelled sample complexity and can be efficiently run on real-world datasets. For this purpose, we leverage the features extracted by networks pre-trained on public (labelled or unlabelled) data, whose distribution can significantly differ from the one on which SP learning is performed. To validate its empirical effectiveness, we propose a wide variety of experiments under tight privacy constraints ($ε= 0.1$) and with a focus on low-data regimes. In all of these settings, our algorithm exhibits significantly improved performance over available baselines that use similar amounts of public data.

CVJul 11, 2024
Extracting Training Data from Document-Based VQA Models

Francesco Pinto, Nathalie Rauschmayr, Florian Tramèr et al.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have made remarkable progress in document-based Visual Question Answering (i.e., responding to queries about the contents of an input document provided as an image). In this work, we show these models can memorize responses for training samples and regurgitate them even when the relevant visual information has been removed. This includes Personal Identifiable Information (PII) repeated once in the training set, indicating these models could divulge memorised sensitive information and therefore pose a privacy risk. We quantitatively measure the extractability of information in controlled experiments and differentiate between cases where it arises from generalization capabilities or from memorization. We further investigate the factors that influence memorization across multiple state-of-the-art models and propose an effective heuristic countermeasure that empirically prevents the extractability of PII.

CVNov 7, 2025Code
VMDT: Decoding the Trustworthiness of Video Foundation Models

Yujin Potter, Zhun Wang, Nicholas Crispino et al.

As foundation models become more sophisticated, ensuring their trustworthiness becomes increasingly critical; yet, unlike text and image, the video modality still lacks comprehensive trustworthiness benchmarks. We introduce VMDT (Video-Modal DecodingTrust), the first unified platform for evaluating text-to-video (T2V) and video-to-text (V2T) models across five key trustworthiness dimensions: safety, hallucination, fairness, privacy, and adversarial robustness. Through our extensive evaluation of 7 T2V models and 19 V2T models using VMDT, we uncover several significant insights. For instance, all open-source T2V models evaluated fail to recognize harmful queries and often generate harmful videos, while exhibiting higher levels of unfairness compared to image modality models. In V2T models, unfairness and privacy risks rise with scale, whereas hallucination and adversarial robustness improve -- though overall performance remains low. Uniquely, safety shows no correlation with model size, implying that factors other than scale govern current safety levels. Our findings highlight the urgent need for developing more robust and trustworthy video foundation models, and VMDT provides a systematic framework for measuring and tracking progress toward this goal. The code is available at https://sunblaze-ucb.github.io/VMDT-page/.

56.3LGApr 2
Where You Place the Norm Matters: From Prejudiced to Neutral Initializations

Emanuele Francazi, Francesco Pinto, Aurelien Lucchi et al.

Normalization layers were introduced to stabilize and accelerate training, yet their influence is critical already at initialization, where they shape signal propagation and output statistics before parameters adapt to data. In practice, both which normalization to use and where to place it are often chosen heuristically, despite the fact that these decisions can qualitatively alter a model's behavior. We provide a theoretical characterization of how normalization choice and placement (Pre-Norm vs. Post-Norm) determine the distribution of class predictions at initialization, ranging from unbiased (Neutral) to highly concentrated (Prejudiced) regimes. We show that these architectural decisions induce systematic shifts in the initial prediction regime, thereby modulating subsequent learning dynamics. By linking normalization design directly to prediction statistics at initialization, our results offer principled guidance for more controlled and interpretable network design, including clarifying how widely used choices such as BatchNorm vs. LayerNorm and Pre-Norm vs. Post-Norm shape behavior from the outset of training.

CVDec 21, 2022
Not Just Pretty Pictures: Toward Interventional Data Augmentation Using Text-to-Image Generators

Jianhao Yuan, Francesco Pinto, Adam Davies et al.

Neural image classifiers are known to undergo severe performance degradation when exposed to inputs that are sampled from environmental conditions that differ from their training data. Given the recent progress in Text-to-Image (T2I) generation, a natural question is how modern T2I generators can be used to simulate arbitrary interventions over such environmental factors in order to augment training data and improve the robustness of downstream classifiers. We experiment across a diverse collection of benchmarks in single domain generalization (SDG) and reducing reliance on spurious features (RRSF), ablating across key dimensions of T2I generation, including interventional prompting strategies, conditioning mechanisms, and post-hoc filtering. Our extensive empirical findings demonstrate that modern T2I generators like Stable Diffusion can indeed be used as a powerful interventional data augmentation mechanism, outperforming previously state-of-the-art data augmentation techniques regardless of how each dimension is configured.

LGJul 29, 2024
Strong Copyright Protection for Language Models via Adaptive Model Fusion

Javier Abad, Konstantin Donhauser, Francesco Pinto et al.

The risk of language models unintentionally reproducing copyrighted material from their training data has led to the development of various protective measures. In this paper, we propose model fusion as an effective solution to safeguard against copyright infringement. In particular, we introduce Copyright-Protecting Fusion (CP-Fuse), an algorithm that adaptively combines language models to minimize the reproduction of protected materials. CP-Fuse is inspired by the recently proposed Near-Access Free (NAF) framework and additionally incorporates a desirable balancing property that we demonstrate prevents the reproduction of memorized training data. Our results show that CP-Fuse significantly reduces the memorization of copyrighted content while maintaining high-quality text and code generation. Furthermore, we demonstrate how CP-Fuse can be integrated with other techniques for enhanced protection.

LGJan 24, 2025
Humanity's Last Exam

Long Phan, Alice Gatti, Ziwen Han et al. · amazon-science, apple-ml

Benchmarks are important tools for tracking the rapid advancements in large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, benchmarks are not keeping pace in difficulty: LLMs now achieve over 90\% accuracy on popular benchmarks like MMLU, limiting informed measurement of state-of-the-art LLM capabilities. In response, we introduce Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, designed to be the final closed-ended academic benchmark of its kind with broad subject coverage. HLE consists of 2,500 questions across dozens of subjects, including mathematics, humanities, and the natural sciences. HLE is developed globally by subject-matter experts and consists of multiple-choice and short-answer questions suitable for automated grading. Each question has a known solution that is unambiguous and easily verifiable, but cannot be quickly answered via internet retrieval. State-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate low accuracy and calibration on HLE, highlighting a significant gap between current LLM capabilities and the expert human frontier on closed-ended academic questions. To inform research and policymaking upon a clear understanding of model capabilities, we publicly release HLE at https://lastexam.ai.

63.4AIMar 16
MAC: Multi-Agent Constitution Learning

Rushil Thareja, Gautam Gupta, Francesco Pinto et al.

Constitutional AI is a method to oversee and control LLMs based on a set of rules written in natural language. These rules are typically written by human experts, but could in principle be learned automatically given sufficient training data for the desired behavior. Existing LLM-based prompt optimizers attempt this but are ineffective at learning constitutions since (i) they require many labeled examples and (ii) lack structure in the optimized prompts, leading to diminishing improvements as prompt size grows. To address these limitations, we propose Multi-Agent Constitutional Learning (MAC), which optimizes over structured prompts represented as sets of rules using a network of agents with specialized tasks to accept, edit, or reject rule updates. We also present MAC+, which improves performance by training agents on successful trajectories to reinforce updates leading to higher reward. We evaluate MAC on tagging Personally Identifiable Information (PII), a classification task with limited labels where interpretability is critical, and demonstrate that it generalizes to other agentic tasks such as tool calling. MAC outperforms recent prompt optimization methods by over 50%, produces human-readable and auditable rule sets, and achieves performance comparable to supervised fine-tuning and GRPO without requiring parameter updates.

CVMar 19, 2024Code
As Firm As Their Foundations: Can open-sourced foundation models be used to create adversarial examples for downstream tasks?

Anjun Hu, Jindong Gu, Francesco Pinto et al.

Foundation models pre-trained on web-scale vision-language data, such as CLIP, are widely used as cornerstones of powerful machine learning systems. While pre-training offers clear advantages for downstream learning, it also endows downstream models with shared adversarial vulnerabilities that can be easily identified through the open-sourced foundation model. In this work, we expose such vulnerabilities in CLIP's downstream models and show that foundation models can serve as a basis for attacking their downstream systems. In particular, we propose a simple yet effective adversarial attack strategy termed Patch Representation Misalignment (PRM). Solely based on open-sourced CLIP vision encoders, this method produces adversaries that simultaneously fool more than 20 downstream models spanning 4 common vision-language tasks (semantic segmentation, object detection, image captioning and visual question-answering). Our findings highlight the concerning safety risks introduced by the extensive usage of public foundational models in the development of downstream systems, calling for extra caution in these scenarios.

CVDec 9, 2024
SafeWatch: An Efficient Safety-Policy Following Video Guardrail Model with Transparent Explanations

Zhaorun Chen, Francesco Pinto, Minzhou Pan et al.

With the rise of generative AI and rapid growth of high-quality video generation, video guardrails have become more crucial than ever to ensure safety and security across platforms. Current video guardrails, however, are either overly simplistic, relying on pure classification models trained on simple policies with limited unsafe categories, which lack detailed explanations, or prompting multimodal large language models (MLLMs) with long safety guidelines, which are inefficient and impractical for guardrailing real-world content. To bridge this gap, we propose SafeWatch, an efficient MLLM-based video guardrail model designed to follow customized safety policies and provide multi-label video guardrail outputs with content-specific explanations in a zero-shot manner. In particular, unlike traditional MLLM-based guardrails that encode all safety policies autoregressively, causing inefficiency and bias, SafeWatch uniquely encodes each policy chunk in parallel and eliminates their position bias such that all policies are attended simultaneously with equal importance. In addition, to improve efficiency and accuracy, SafeWatch incorporates a policy-aware visual token pruning algorithm that adaptively selects the most relevant video tokens for each policy, discarding noisy or irrelevant information. This allows for more focused, policy-compliant guardrail with significantly reduced computational overhead. Considering the limitations of existing video guardrail benchmarks, we propose SafeWatch-Bench, a large-scale video guardrail benchmark comprising over 2M videos spanning six safety categories which covers over 30 tasks to ensure a comprehensive coverage of all potential safety scenarios. SafeWatch outperforms SOTA by 28.2% on SafeWatch-Bench, 13.6% on benchmarks, cuts costs by 10%, and delivers top-tier explanations validated by LLM and human reviews.

CRMar 20, 2025
AutoRedTeamer: Autonomous Red Teaming with Lifelong Attack Integration

Andy Zhou, Kevin Wu, Francesco Pinto et al.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable, security and safety evaluation are crucial. While current red teaming approaches have made strides in assessing LLM vulnerabilities, they often rely heavily on human input and lack comprehensive coverage of emerging attack vectors. This paper introduces AutoRedTeamer, a novel framework for fully automated, end-to-end red teaming against LLMs. AutoRedTeamer combines a multi-agent architecture with a memory-guided attack selection mechanism to enable continuous discovery and integration of new attack vectors. The dual-agent framework consists of a red teaming agent that can operate from high-level risk categories alone to generate and execute test cases and a strategy proposer agent that autonomously discovers and implements new attacks by analyzing recent research. This modular design allows AutoRedTeamer to adapt to emerging threats while maintaining strong performance on existing attack vectors. We demonstrate AutoRedTeamer's effectiveness across diverse evaluation settings, achieving 20% higher attack success rates on HarmBench against Llama-3.1-70B while reducing computational costs by 46% compared to existing approaches. AutoRedTeamer also matches the diversity of human-curated benchmarks in generating test cases, providing a comprehensive, scalable, and continuously evolving framework for evaluating the security of AI systems.

CLMar 19, 2025
MMDT: Decoding the Trustworthiness and Safety of Multimodal Foundation Models

Chejian Xu, Jiawei Zhang, Zhaorun Chen et al. · berkeley

Multimodal foundation models (MMFMs) play a crucial role in various applications, including autonomous driving, healthcare, and virtual assistants. However, several studies have revealed vulnerabilities in these models, such as generating unsafe content by text-to-image models. Existing benchmarks on multimodal models either predominantly assess the helpfulness of these models, or only focus on limited perspectives such as fairness and privacy. In this paper, we present the first unified platform, MMDT (Multimodal DecodingTrust), designed to provide a comprehensive safety and trustworthiness evaluation for MMFMs. Our platform assesses models from multiple perspectives, including safety, hallucination, fairness/bias, privacy, adversarial robustness, and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. We have designed various evaluation scenarios and red teaming algorithms under different tasks for each perspective to generate challenging data, forming a high-quality benchmark. We evaluate a range of multimodal models using MMDT, and our findings reveal a series of vulnerabilities and areas for improvement across these perspectives. This work introduces the first comprehensive and unique safety and trustworthiness evaluation platform for MMFMs, paving the way for developing safer and more reliable MMFMs and systems. Our platform and benchmark are available at https://mmdecodingtrust.github.io/.

LGOct 30, 2024
Focus On This, Not That! Steering LLMs with Adaptive Feature Specification

Tom A. Lamb, Adam Davies, Alasdair Paren et al.

Despite the success of Instruction Tuning (IT) in training large language models (LLMs), such models often leverage spurious or biased features learnt from their training data and can become misaligned, leading to undesired behaviours. While existing techniques can steer model behaviour at inference-time, they are often post-hoc and do not embed steering as an intrinsic model feature. In this work, we introduce Focus Instruction Tuning (FIT), which trains LLMs to condition their responses by focusing on specific features whilst ignoring others, leading to different behaviours based on what features are specified. Across diverse benchmarks, we demonstrate that FIT: (i) successfully steers behaviour at inference time; (ii) increases robustness by amplifying core task signals and down-weighting spurious cues; (iii) mitigates social bias by suppressing demographic attributes; and (iv) generalises under distribution shifts and to previously unseen focus features. FIT therefore offers a lightweight, intrinsic mechanism for building more robust, fair, and easily controllable LLMs.

LGDec 9, 2024
Copyright-Protected Language Generation via Adaptive Model Fusion

Javier Abad, Konstantin Donhauser, Francesco Pinto et al.

The risk of language models reproducing copyrighted material from their training data has led to the development of various protective measures. Among these, inference-time strategies that impose constraints via post-processing have shown promise in addressing the complexities of copyright regulation. However, they often incur prohibitive computational costs or suffer from performance trade-offs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Copyright-Protecting Model Fusion (CP-Fuse), a novel approach that combines models trained on disjoint sets of copyrighted material during inference. In particular, CP-Fuse adaptively aggregates the model outputs to minimize the reproduction of copyrighted content, adhering to a crucial balancing property that prevents the regurgitation of memorized data. Through extensive experiments, we show that CP-Fuse significantly reduces the reproduction of protected material without compromising the quality of text and code generation. Moreover, its post-hoc nature allows seamless integration with other protective measures, further enhancing copyright safeguards. Lastly, we show that CP-Fuse is robust against common techniques for extracting training data.

LGMay 22, 2024
Towards Certification of Uncertainty Calibration under Adversarial Attacks

Cornelius Emde, Francesco Pinto, Thomas Lukasiewicz et al.

Since neural classifiers are known to be sensitive to adversarial perturbations that alter their accuracy, \textit{certification methods} have been developed to provide provable guarantees on the insensitivity of their predictions to such perturbations. Furthermore, in safety-critical applications, the frequentist interpretation of the confidence of a classifier (also known as model calibration) can be of utmost importance. This property can be measured via the Brier score or the expected calibration error. We show that attacks can significantly harm calibration, and thus propose certified calibration as worst-case bounds on calibration under adversarial perturbations. Specifically, we produce analytic bounds for the Brier score and approximate bounds via the solution of a mixed-integer program on the expected calibration error. Finally, we propose novel calibration attacks and demonstrate how they can improve model calibration through \textit{adversarial calibration training}.

CVOct 13, 2025
LikePhys: Evaluating Intuitive Physics Understanding in Video Diffusion Models via Likelihood Preference

Jianhao Yuan, Fabio Pizzati, Francesco Pinto et al.

Intuitive physics understanding in video diffusion models plays an essential role in building general-purpose physically plausible world simulators, yet accurately evaluating such capacity remains a challenging task due to the difficulty in disentangling physics correctness from visual appearance in generation. To the end, we introduce LikePhys, a training-free method that evaluates intuitive physics in video diffusion models by distinguishing physically valid and impossible videos using the denoising objective as an ELBO-based likelihood surrogate on a curated dataset of valid-invalid pairs. By testing on our constructed benchmark of twelve scenarios spanning over four physics domains, we show that our evaluation metric, Plausibility Preference Error (PPE), demonstrates strong alignment with human preference, outperforming state-of-the-art evaluator baselines. We then systematically benchmark intuitive physics understanding in current video diffusion models. Our study further analyses how model design and inference settings affect intuitive physics understanding and highlights domain-specific capacity variations across physical laws. Empirical results show that, despite current models struggling with complex and chaotic dynamics, there is a clear trend of improvement in physics understanding as model capacity and inference settings scale.

AIJul 2, 2025
Do Role-Playing Agents Practice What They Preach? Belief-Behavior Consistency in LLM-Based Simulations of Human Trust

Amogh Mannekote, Adam Davies, Guohao Li et al.

As LLMs are increasingly studied as role-playing agents to generate synthetic data for human behavioral research, ensuring that their outputs remain coherent with their assigned roles has become a critical concern. In this paper, we investigate how consistently LLM-based role-playing agents' stated beliefs about the behavior of the people they are asked to role-play ("what they say") correspond to their actual behavior during role-play ("how they act"). Specifically, we establish an evaluation framework to rigorously measure how well beliefs obtained by prompting the model can predict simulation outcomes in advance. Using an augmented version of the GenAgents persona bank and the Trust Game (a standard economic game used to quantify players' trust and reciprocity), we introduce a belief-behavior consistency metric to systematically investigate how it is affected by factors such as: (1) the types of beliefs we elicit from LLMs, like expected outcomes of simulations versus task-relevant attributes of individual characters LLMs are asked to simulate; (2) when and how we present LLMs with relevant information about Trust Game; and (3) how far into the future we ask the model to forecast its actions. We also explore how feasible it is to impose a researcher's own theoretical priors in the event that the originally elicited beliefs are misaligned with research objectives. Our results reveal systematic inconsistencies between LLMs' stated (or imposed) beliefs and the outcomes of their role-playing simulation, at both an individual- and population-level. Specifically, we find that, even when models appear to encode plausible beliefs, they may fail to apply them in a consistent way. These findings highlight the need to identify how and when LLMs' stated beliefs align with their simulated behavior, allowing researchers to use LLM-based agents appropriately in behavioral studies.

CVNov 9, 2024
Hidden in Plain Sight: Evaluating Abstract Shape Recognition in Vision-Language Models

Arshia Hemmat, Adam Davies, Tom A. Lamb et al.

Despite the importance of shape perception in human vision, early neural image classifiers relied less on shape information for object recognition than other (often spurious) features. While recent research suggests that current large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit more reliance on shape, we find them to still be seriously limited in this regard. To quantify such limitations, we introduce IllusionBench, a dataset that challenges current cutting-edge VLMs to decipher shape information when the shape is represented by an arrangement of visual elements in a scene. Our extensive evaluations reveal that, while these shapes are easily detectable by human annotators, current VLMs struggle to recognize them, indicating important avenues for future work in developing more robust visual perception systems. The full dataset and codebase are available at: \url{https://arshiahemmat.github.io/illusionbench/}

LGDec 23, 2020
Towards Automated Satellite Conjunction Management with Bayesian Deep Learning

Francesco Pinto, Giacomo Acciarini, Sascha Metz et al.

After decades of space travel, low Earth orbit is a junkyard of discarded rocket bodies, dead satellites, and millions of pieces of debris from collisions and explosions. Objects in high enough altitudes do not re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere, but stay in orbit around Earth for a long time. With a speed of 28,000 km/h, collisions in these orbits can generate fragments and potentially trigger a cascade of more collisions known as the Kessler syndrome. This could pose a planetary challenge, because the phenomenon could escalate to the point of hindering future space operations and damaging satellite infrastructure critical for space and Earth science applications. As commercial entities place mega-constellations of satellites in orbit, the burden on operators conducting collision avoidance manoeuvres will increase. For this reason, development of automated tools that predict potential collision events (conjunctions) is critical. We introduce a Bayesian deep learning approach to this problem, and develop recurrent neural network architectures (LSTMs) that work with time series of conjunction data messages (CDMs), a standard data format used by the space community. We show that our method can be used to model all CDM features simultaneously, including the time of arrival of future CDMs, providing predictions of conjunction event evolution with associated uncertainties.

LGDec 18, 2020
Spacecraft Collision Risk Assessment with Probabilistic Programming

Giacomo Acciarini, Francesco Pinto, Sascha Metz et al.

Over 34,000 objects bigger than 10 cm in length are known to orbit Earth. Among them, only a small percentage are active satellites, while the rest of the population is made of dead satellites, rocket bodies, and debris that pose a collision threat to operational spacecraft. Furthermore, the predicted growth of the space sector and the planned launch of megaconstellations will add even more complexity, therefore causing the collision risk and the burden on space operators to increase. Managing this complex framework with internationally agreed methods is pivotal and urgent. In this context, we build a novel physics-based probabilistic generative model for synthetically generating conjunction data messages, calibrated using real data. By conditioning on observations, we use the model to obtain posterior distributions via Bayesian inference. We show that the probabilistic programming approach to conjunction assessment can help in making predictions and in finding the parameters that explain the observed data in conjunction data messages, thus shedding more light on key variables and orbital characteristics that more likely lead to conjunction events. Moreover, our technique enables the generation of physically accurate synthetic datasets of collisions, answering a fundamental need of the space and machine learning communities working in this area.