Shotaro Kataoka

Kensei Nakai, Hirofumi Nonaka, Asahi Hentona et al.

Scoring patent documents is very useful for technology management. However, conventional methods are based on static models and, thus, do not reflect the growth potential of the technology cluster of the patent. Because even if the cluster of a patent has no hope of growing, we recognize the patent is important if PageRank or other ranking score is high. Therefore, there arises a necessity of developing citation network clustering and prediction of future citations. In our research, clustering of patent citation networks by Stochastic Block Model was done with the aim of enabling corporate managers and investors to evaluate the scale and life cycle of technology. As a result, we confirmed nested SBM is appropriate for graph clustering of patent citation networks. Also, a high MAPE value was obtained and the direction accuracy achieved a value greater than 50% when predicting growth potential for each cluster by using LSTM.

Asahi Hentona, Takeshi Sakumoto, Hugo Alberto Mendoza España et al.

The scoring of patents is useful for technology management analysis. Therefore, a necessity of developing citation network clustering and prediction of future citations for practical patent scoring arises. In this paper, we propose a community detection method using the Node2vec. And in order to analyze growth potential we compare three ''time series analysis methods'', the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), ARIMA model, and Hawkes Process. The results of our experiments, we could find common technical points from those clusters by Node2vec. Furthermore, we found that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model was higher than that of other models.