Renu Singh

Renu Singh, Robert Brunstein, Antonia Jost et al.

We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time. ArchesWeather is a deterministic model, while ArchesWeatherGen is a probabilistic flow-matching model leveraging ArchesWeather's forecasts, enabling ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. In this work, we adapt these models to act as forced atmospheric models by using additional conditioning on the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) as boundary conditions. In particular, we follow the AI Model Intercomparison Project (AIMIP) Phase 1 protocol, which, analogous to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), proposes a standardized experimental setup to evaluate the climate skill of ML-based forced atmospheric models. We present a comprehensive evaluation of both models under these conditions, including comparison against numerical climate models, ablation studies that examine key design choices in the extension, and an analysis of forced versus unforced configurations. Despite being originally developed for weather forecasting, we demonstrate that forced configurations of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen produce stable long-term climate simulations, have a stable annual cycle, and capture the drift of many climate variables. The models faithfully reproduce ERA5's climatology, large-scale circulations and interannual variability, and they capture the tails of the distributions.

Guillaume Couairon, Renu Singh, Anastase Charantonis et al.

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in today's society, from agriculture and logistics to predicting the output of renewable energies, and preparing for extreme weather events. Deep learning weather forecasting models trained with the next state prediction objective on ERA5 have shown great success compared to numerical global circulation models. However, for a wide range of applications, being able to provide representative samples from the distribution of possible future weather states is critical. In this paper, we propose a methodology to leverage deterministic weather models in the design of probabilistic weather models, leading to improved performance and reduced computing costs. We first introduce \textbf{ArchesWeather}, a transformer-based deterministic model that improves upon Pangu-Weather by removing overrestrictive inductive priors. We then design a probabilistic weather model called \textbf{ArchesWeatherGen} based on flow matching, a modern variant of diffusion models, that is trained to project ArchesWeather's predictions to the distribution of ERA5 weather states. ArchesWeatherGen is a true stochastic emulator of ERA5 and surpasses IFS ENS and NeuralGCM on all WeatherBench headline variables (except for NeuralGCM's geopotential). Our work also aims to democratize the use of deterministic and generative machine learning models in weather forecasting research, with academic computing resources. All models are trained at 1.5° resolution, with a training budget of $\sim$9 V100 days for ArchesWeather and $\sim$45 V100 days for ArchesWeatherGen. For inference, ArchesWeatherGen generates 15-day weather trajectories at a rate of 1 minute per ensemble member on a A100 GPU card. To make our work fully reproducible, our code and models are open source, including the complete pipeline for data preparation, training, and evaluation, at https://github.com/INRIA/geoarches .

Ishan Deshpande, Amandeep Kaur Reehal, Chandan Nath et al.

Accurate, timely, and farm-level crop type information is paramount for national food security, agricultural policy formulation, and economic planning, particularly in agriculturally significant nations like India. While remote sensing and machine learning have become vital tools for crop monitoring, existing approaches often grapple with challenges such as limited geographical scalability, restricted crop type coverage, the complexities of mixed-pixel and heterogeneous landscapes, and crucially, the robust in-season identification essential for proactive decision-making. We present a framework designed to address the critical data gaps for targeted data driven decision making which generates farm-level, in-season, multi-crop identification at national scale (India) using deep learning. Our methodology leverages the strengths of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, integrated with national-scale farm boundary data. The model successfully identifies 12 major crops (which collectively account for nearly 90% of India's total cultivated area showing an agreement with national crop census 2023-24 of 94% in winter, and 75% in monsoon season). Our approach incorporates an automated season detection algorithm, which estimates crop sowing and harvest periods. This allows for reliable crop identification as early as two months into the growing season and facilitates rigorous in-season performance evaluation. Furthermore, we have engineered a highly scalable inference pipeline, culminating in what is, to our knowledge, the first pan-India, in-season, farm-level crop type data product. The system's effectiveness and scalability are demonstrated through robust validation against national agricultural statistics, showcasing its potential to deliver actionable, data-driven insights for transformative agricultural monitoring and management across India.