Tian Zheng

Yang Wu, Shilong Wang, Hao Yang et al.

In this paper, we evaluate different abilities of GPT-4V including visual understanding, language understanding, visual puzzle solving, and understanding of other modalities such as depth, thermal, video, and audio. To estimate GPT-4V's performance, we manually construct 656 test instances and carefully evaluate the results of GPT-4V. The highlights of our findings are as follows: (1) GPT-4V exhibits impressive performance on English visual-centric benchmarks but fails to recognize simple Chinese texts in the images; (2) GPT-4V shows inconsistent refusal behavior when answering questions related to sensitive traits such as gender, race, and age; (3) GPT-4V obtains worse results than GPT-4 (API) on language understanding tasks including general language understanding benchmarks and visual commonsense knowledge evaluation benchmarks; (4) Few-shot prompting can improve GPT-4V's performance on both visual understanding and language understanding; (5) GPT-4V struggles to find the nuances between two similar images and solve the easy math picture puzzles; (6) GPT-4V shows non-trivial performance on the tasks of similar modalities to image, such as video and thermal. Our experimental results reveal the ability and limitations of GPT-4V and we hope our paper can provide some insights into the application and research of GPT-4V.

Julien Collard, Pierre Gentine, Tian Zheng

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether surface air temperature will exceed its q-th local quantile within a specified timeframe. Our key finding is that aggregating ensemble predictions using a power mean significantly enhances the classifier's performance. By making a machine-learning based weather forecasting model generative and applying this non-linear aggregation method, we achieve better accuracy in predicting extreme heat events than with the typical mean prediction from the same model. Our power aggregation method shows promise and adaptability, as its optimal performance varies with the quantile threshold chosen, demonstrating increased effectiveness for higher extremes prediction.

Zhewen Hou, Jiajin Sun, Subashree Venkatasubramanian et al.

Machine learning (ML) has shown significant promise in studying complex geophysical dynamical systems, including turbulence and climate processes. Such systems often display sensitive dependence on initial conditions, reflected in positive Lyapunov exponents, where even small perturbations in short-term forecasts can lead to large deviations in long-term outcomes. Thus, meaningful inference requires not only accurate short-term predictions, but also consistency with the system's long-term attractor that is captured by the marginal distribution of state variables. Existing approaches attempt to address this challenge by incorporating spatial and temporal dependence, but these strategies become impractical when data are extremely sparse. In this work, we show that prior knowledge of marginal distributions offers valuable complementary information to short-term observations, motivating a distribution-informed learning framework. We introduce a calibration algorithm based on normalization and the Kernelized Stein Discrepancy (KSD) to enhance ML predictions. The method here employs KSD within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space to calibrate model outputs, improving their fidelity to known physical distributions. This not only sharpens pointwise predictions but also enforces consistency with non-local statistical structures rooted in physical principles. Through synthetic experiments-spanning offline climatological CO2 fluxes and online quasi-geostrophic flow simulations-we demonstrate the robustness and broad utility of the proposed framework.

Jerry Lin, Zeyuan Hu, Tom Beucler et al.

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Hao Yang, Yanyan Zhao, Yang Wu et al.

Compared to traditional sentiment analysis, which only considers text, multimodal sentiment analysis needs to consider emotional signals from multimodal sources simultaneously and is therefore more consistent with the way how humans process sentiment in real-world scenarios. It involves processing emotional information from various sources such as natural language, images, videos, audio, physiological signals, etc. However, although other modalities also contain diverse emotional cues, natural language usually contains richer contextual information and therefore always occupies a crucial position in multimodal sentiment analysis. The emergence of ChatGPT has opened up immense potential for applying large language models (LLMs) to text-centric multimodal tasks. However, it is still unclear how existing LLMs can adapt better to text-centric multimodal sentiment analysis tasks. This survey aims to (1) present a comprehensive review of recent research in text-centric multimodal sentiment analysis tasks, (2) examine the potential of LLMs for text-centric multimodal sentiment analysis, outlining their approaches, advantages, and limitations, (3) summarize the application scenarios of LLM-based multimodal sentiment analysis technology, and (4) explore the challenges and potential research directions for multimodal sentiment analysis in the future.

Tamara Broderick, Andrew Gelman, Rachael Meager et al.

Probabilistic machine learning increasingly informs critical decisions in medicine, economics, politics, and beyond. We need evidence to support that the resulting decisions are well-founded. To aid development of trust in these decisions, we develop a taxonomy delineating where trust in an analysis can break down: (1) in the translation of real-world goals to goals on a particular set of available training data, (2) in the translation of abstract goals on the training data to a concrete mathematical problem, (3) in the use of an algorithm to solve the stated mathematical problem, and (4) in the use of a particular code implementation of the chosen algorithm. We detail how trust can fail at each step and illustrate our taxonomy with two case studies: an analysis of the efficacy of microcredit and The Economist's predictions of the 2020 US presidential election. Finally, we describe a wide variety of methods that can be used to increase trust at each step of our taxonomy. The use of our taxonomy highlights steps where existing research work on trust tends to concentrate and also steps where establishing trust is particularly challenging.

Chengliang Tang, Gan Yuan, Tian Zheng

The past two decades have witnessed the great success of the algorithmic modeling framework advocated by Breiman et al. (2001). Nevertheless, the excellent prediction performance of these black-box models rely heavily on the availability of strong supervision, i.e. a large set of accurate and exact ground-truth labels. In practice, strong supervision can be unavailable or expensive, which calls for modeling techniques under weak supervision. In this comment, we summarize the key concepts in weakly supervised learning and discuss some recent developments in the field. Using algorithmic modeling alone under a weak supervision might lead to unstable and misleading results. A promising direction would be integrating the data modeling culture into such a framework.

Guanhua Fang, Owen G. Ward, Tian Zheng

A common goal in network modeling is to uncover the latent community structure present among nodes. For many real-world networks, the true connections consist of events arriving as streams, which are then aggregated to form edges, ignoring the dynamic temporal component. A natural way to take account of these temporal dynamics of interactions is to use point processes as the foundation of network models for community detection. Computational complexity hampers the scalability of such approaches to large sparse networks. To circumvent this challenge, we propose a fast online variational inference algorithm for estimating the latent structure underlying dynamic event arrivals on a network, using continuous-time point process latent network models. We describe this procedure for networks models capturing community structure. This structure can be learned as new events are observed on the network, updating the inferred community assignments. We investigate the theoretical properties of such an inference scheme, and provide regret bounds on the loss function of this procedure. The proposed inference procedure is then thoroughly compared, using both simulation studies and real data, to non-online variants. We demonstrate that online inference can obtain comparable performance, in terms of community recovery, to non-online variants, while realising computational gains. Our proposed inference framework can also be readily modified to incorporate other popular network structures.

Owen G. Ward, Zhen Huang, Andrew Davison et al.

Embedding nodes of a large network into a metric (e.g., Euclidean) space has become an area of active research in statistical machine learning, which has found applications in natural and social sciences. Generally, a representation of a network object is learned in a Euclidean geometry and is then used for subsequent tasks regarding the nodes and/or edges of the network, such as community detection, node classification and link prediction. Network embedding algorithms have been proposed in multiple disciplines, often with domain-specific notations and details. In addition, different measures and tools have been adopted to evaluate and compare the methods proposed under different settings, often dependent of the downstream tasks. As a result, it is challenging to study these algorithms in the literature systematically. Motivated by the recently proposed Veridical Data Science (VDS) framework, we propose a framework for network embedding algorithms and discuss how the principles of predictability, computability and stability apply in this context. The utilization of this framework in network embedding holds the potential to motivate and point to new directions for future research.

Lei Han, Tian Zheng, Lan Xu et al.

3D instance segmentation, with a variety of applications in robotics and augmented reality, is in large demands these days. Unlike 2D images that are projective observations of the environment, 3D models provide metric reconstruction of the scenes without occlusion or scale ambiguity. In this paper, we define "3D occupancy size", as the number of voxels occupied by each instance. It owns advantages of robustness in prediction, on which basis, OccuSeg, an occupancy-aware 3D instance segmentation scheme is proposed. Our multi-task learning produces both occupancy signal and embedding representations, where the training of spatial and feature embeddings varies with their difference in scale-aware. Our clustering scheme benefits from the reliable comparison between the predicted occupancy size and the clustered occupancy size, which encourages hard samples being correctly clustered and avoids over segmentation. The proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on 3 real-world datasets, i.e. ScanNetV2, S3DIS and SceneNN, while maintaining high efficiency.

Yuting Ma, Tian Zheng

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is commonly used for optimization in large-scale machine learning problems. Langford et al. (2009) introduce a sparse online learning method to induce sparsity via truncated gradient. With high-dimensional sparse data, however, the method suffers from slow convergence and high variance due to the heterogeneity in feature sparsity. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a stabilized truncated stochastic gradient descent algorithm. We employ a soft-thresholding scheme on the weight vector where the imposed shrinkage is adaptive to the amount of information available in each feature. The variability in the resulted sparse weight vector is further controlled by stability selection integrated with the informative truncation. To facilitate better convergence, we adopt an annealing strategy on the truncation rate, which leads to a balanced trade-off between exploration and exploitation in learning a sparse weight vector. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm compares favorably with the original algorithm in terms of prediction accuracy, achieved sparsity and stability.

Yuting Ma, Tian Zheng

This paper proposes a boosting-based solution addressing metric learning problems for high-dimensional data. Distance measures have been used as natural measures of (dis)similarity and served as the foundation of various learning methods. The efficiency of distance-based learning methods heavily depends on the chosen distance metric. With increasing dimensionality and complexity of data, however, traditional metric learning methods suffer from poor scalability and the limitation due to linearity as the true signals are usually embedded within a low-dimensional nonlinear subspace. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear sparse metric learning algorithm via boosting. We restructure a global optimization problem into a forward stage-wise learning of weak learners based on a rank-one decomposition of the weight matrix in the Mahalanobis distance metric. A gradient boosting algorithm is devised to obtain a sparse rank-one update of the weight matrix at each step. Nonlinear features are learned by a hierarchical expansion of interactions incorporated within the boosting algorithm. Meanwhile, an early stopping rule is imposed to control the overall complexity of the learned metric. As a result, our approach guarantees three desirable properties of the final metric: positive semi-definiteness, low rank and element-wise sparsity. Numerical experiments show that our learning model compares favorably with the state-of-the-art methods in the current literature of metric learning.