Balázs Csanád Csáji

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Bálint Horváth

The paper introduces a method to construct confidence bands for bounded, band-limited functions based on a finite sample of input-output pairs. The approach is distribution-free w.r.t. the observation noises and only the knowledge of the input distribution is assumed. It is nonparametric, that is, it does not require a parametric model of the regression function and the regions have non-asymptotic guarantees. The algorithm is based on the theory of Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The paper first studies the fully observable variant, when there are no noises on the observations and only the inputs are random; then it generalizes the ideas to the noisy case using gradient-perturbation methods. Finally, numerical experiments demonstrating both cases are presented.

Ambrus Tamás, Balázs Csanád Csáji

Kernel mean embeddings, a widely used technique in machine learning, map probability distributions to elements of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). For supervised learning problems, where input-output pairs are observed, the conditional distribution of outputs given the inputs is a key object. The input dependent conditional distribution of an output can be encoded with an RKHS valued function, the conditional kernel mean map. In this paper we present a new recursive algorithm to estimate the conditional kernel mean map in a Hilbert space valued $L_2$ space, that is in a Bochner space. We prove the weak and strong $L_2$ consistency of our recursive estimator under mild conditions. The idea is to generalize Stone's theorem for Hilbert space valued regression in a locally compact Polish space. We present new insights about conditional kernel mean embeddings and give strong asymptotic bounds regarding the convergence of the proposed recursive method. Finally, the results are demonstrated on three application domains: for inputs coming from Euclidean spaces, Riemannian manifolds and locally compact subsets of function spaces.

Ambrus Tamás, Dániel Ágoston Bálint, Balázs Csanád Csáji

The paper introduces robust independence tests with non-asymptotically guaranteed significance levels for stochastic linear time-invariant systems, assuming that the observed outputs are synchronous, which means that the systems are driven by jointly i.i.d. noises. Our method provides bounds for the type I error probabilities that are distribution-free, i.e., the innovations can have arbitrary distributions. The algorithm combines confidence region estimates with permutation tests and general dependence measures, such as the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and the distance covariance, to detect any nonlinear dependence between the observed systems. We also prove the consistency of our hypothesis tests under mild assumptions and demonstrate the ideas through the example of autoregressive systems.

Ambrus Tamás, Balázs Csanád Csáji

The regression function is one of the key objects of binary classification, since it not only determines a Bayes optimal classifier, hence, defines an optimal decision boundary, but also encodes the conditional distribution of the output given the input. In this paper we build distribution-free confidence regions for the regression function for any user-chosen confidence level and any finite sample size based on a resampling test. These regions are abstract, as the model class can be almost arbitrary, e.g., it does not have to be finitely parameterized. We prove the strong uniform consistency of a new empirical risk minimization based approach for model classes with finite pseudo-dimensions and inverse Lipschitz parameterizations. We provide exponential probably approximately correct bounds on the $L_2$ sizes of these regions, and demonstrate the ideas on specific models. Additionally, we also consider a k-nearest neighbors based method, for which we prove strong pointwise bounds on the probability of exclusion. Finally, the constructions are illustrated on a logistic model class and compared to the asymptotic ellipsoids of the maximum likelihood estimator.

Szabolcs Szentpéteri, Balázs Csanád Csáji

We study the sample complexity of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) method, which constructs exact, non-asymptotic confidence regions for the true system parameters under mild statistical assumptions, such as independent and symmetric noise terms. The standard version of SPS deals with linear regression problems, however, it can be generalized to stochastic linear (dynamical) systems, even with closed-loop setups, and to nonlinear and nonparametric problems, as well. Although the strong consistency of the method was rigorously proven, the sample complexity of the algorithm was only analyzed so far for scalar linear regression problems. In this paper we study the sample complexity of SPS for general linear regression problems. We establish high probability upper bounds for the diameters of SPS confidence regions for finite sample sizes and show that the SPS regions shrink at the same, optimal rate as the classical asymptotic confidence ellipsoids. Finally, the difference between the theoretical bounds and the empirical sizes of SPS confidence regions is investigated experimentally.

Szabolcs Szentpéteri, Balázs Csanád Csáji

Sign-Perturbed Sum (SPS) is a powerful finite-sample system identification algorithm which can construct confidence regions for the true data generating system with exact coverage probabilities, for any finite sample size. SPS was developed in a series of papers and it has a wide range of applications, from general linear systems, even in a closed-loop setup, to nonlinear and nonparametric approaches. Although several theoretical properties of SPS were proven in the literature, the sample complexity of the method was not analysed so far. This paper aims to fill this gap and provides the first results on the sample complexity of SPS. Here, we focus on scalar linear regression problems, that is we study the behaviour of SPS confidence intervals. We provide high probability upper bounds, under three different sets of assumptions, showing that the sizes of SPS confidence intervals shrink at a geometric rate around the true parameter, if the observation noises are subgaussian. We also show that similar bounds hold for the previously proposed outer approximation of the confidence region. Finally, we present simulation experiments comparing the theoretical and the empirical convergence rates.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Bálint Horváth

The paper studies the problem of constructing nonparametric simultaneous confidence bands with nonasymptotic and distribition-free guarantees. The target function is assumed to be band-limited and the approach is based on the theory of Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The starting point of the paper is a recently developed algorithm to which we propose three types of improvements. First, we relax the assumptions on the noises by replacing the symmetricity assumption with a weaker distributional invariance principle. Then, we propose a more efficient way to estimate the norm of the target function, and finally we enhance the construction of the confidence bands by tightening the constraints of the underlying convex optimization problems. The refinements are also illustrated through numerical experiments.

Szabolcs Szentpéteri, Balázs Csanád Csáji

Linearly parametrized models are widely used in control and signal processing, with the least-squares (LS) estimate being the archetypical solution. When the input is insufficiently exciting, the LS problem may be unsolvable or numerically unstable. This issue can be resolved through regularization, typically with ridge regression. Although regularized estimators reduce the variance error, it remains important to quantify their estimation uncertainty. A possible approach for linear regression is to construct confidence ellipsoids with the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) ellipsoidal outer approximation (EOA) algorithm. The SPS EOA builds non-asymptotic confidence ellipsoids under the assumption that the noises are independent and symmetric about zero. This paper introduces an extension of the SPS EOA algorithm to ridge regression, and derives probably approximately correct (PAC) upper bounds for the resulting region sizes. Compared with previous analyses, our result explicitly show how the regularization parameter affects the region sizes, and provide tighter bounds under weaker excitation assumptions. Finally, the practical effect of regularization is also demonstrated via simulation experiments.

Bálint Horváth, Balázs Csanád Csáji

The paper proposes a statistical learning approach to the problem of estimating missing pixels of images, crucial for image inpainting and super-resolution problems. One of the main novelties of the method is that it also provides uncertainty quantifications together with the estimated values. Our core assumption is that the underlying data-generating function comes from a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). A special emphasis is put on band-limited functions, central to signal processing, which form Paley-Wiener type RKHSs. The proposed method, which we call Simultaneously Guaranteed Kernel Interpolation (SGKI), is an extension and refinement of a recently developed kernel method. An advantage of SGKI is that it not only estimates the missing pixels, but also builds non-asymptotic confidence bands for the unobserved values, which are simultaneously guaranteed for all missing pixels. We also show how to compute these bands efficiently using Schur complements, we discuss a generalization to vector-valued functions, and we present a series of numerical experiments on various datasets containing synthetically generated and benchmark images, as well.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Bálint Horváth

Band-limited functions are fundamental objects that are widely used in systems theory and signal processing. In this paper we refine a recent nonparametric, nonasymptotic method for constructing simultaneous confidence regions for band-limited functions from noisy input-output measurements, by working in a Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Kernel norm bounds are tightened using a uniformly-randomized Hoeffding's inequality for small samples and an empirical Bernstein bound for larger ones. We derive an approximate threshold, based on the sample size and how informative the inputs are, that governs which bound to deploy. Finally, we apply majority voting to aggregate confidence sets from random subsamples, boosting both stability and region size. We prove that even per-input aggregated intervals retain their simultaneous coverage guarantee. These refinements are also validated through numerical experiments.

Ambrus Tamás, Szabolcs Szentpéteri, Balázs Csanád Csáji

Stochastic multi-armed bandits (MABs) provide a fundamental reinforcement learning model to study sequential decision making in uncertain environments. The upper confidence bounds (UCB) algorithm gave birth to the renaissance of bandit algorithms, as it achieves near-optimal regret rates under various moment assumptions. Up until recently most UCB methods relied on concentration inequalities leading to confidence bounds which depend on moment parameters, such as the variance proxy, that are usually unknown in practice. In this paper, we propose a new distribution-free, data-driven UCB algorithm for symmetric reward distributions, which needs no moment information. The key idea is to combine a refined, one-sided version of the recently developed resampled median-of-means (RMM) method with UCB. We prove a near-optimal regret bound for the proposed anytime, parameter-free RMM-UCB method, even for heavy-tailed distributions.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, László Györfi, Ambrus Tamás et al.

In this paper we revisit the classical method of partitioning classification and study its convergence rate under relaxed conditions, both for observable (non-privatised) and for privatised data. We consider the problem of classification in a $d$ dimensional Euclidean space. Previous results on the partitioning classifier worked with the strong density assumption, which is restrictive, as we demonstrate through simple examples. Here, we study the problem under much milder assumptions. We presuppose that the distribution of the inputs is a mixture of an absolutely continuous and a discrete distribution, such that the absolutely continuous component is concentrated to a $d_a$ dimensional subspace. In addition to the standard Lipschitz and margin conditions, a novel characteristic of the absolutely continuous component is introduced, by which the exact convergence rate of the classification error probability is computed, both for the binary and for the multi-label cases. Interestingly, this rate of convergence depends only on the intrinsic dimension of the inputs, $d_a$. The privacy constraints mean that the independent identically distributed data cannot be directly observed, and the classifiers are functions of the randomised outcome of a suitable local differential privacy mechanism. In this paper we add Laplace distributed noises to the discontinuations of all possible locations of the feature vector and to its label. Again, tight upper bounds on the rate of convergence of the classification error probability are derived, without the strong density assumption, such that this rate depends on $2d_a$.

Ambrus Tamás, Balázs Csanád Csáji

In this paper we suggest two statistical hypothesis tests for the regression function of binary classification based on conditional kernel mean embeddings. The regression function is a fundamental object in classification as it determines both the Bayes optimal classifier and the misclassification probabilities. A resampling based framework is presented and combined with consistent point estimators of the conditional kernel mean map, in order to construct distribution-free hypothesis tests. These tests are introduced in a flexible manner allowing us to control the exact probability of type I error for any sample size. We also prove that both proposed techniques are consistent under weak statistical assumptions, i.e., the type II error probabilities pointwise converge to zero.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Ambrus Tamás

The paper studies binary classification and aims at estimating the underlying regression function which is the conditional expectation of the class labels given the inputs. The regression function is the key component of the Bayes optimal classifier, moreover, besides providing optimal predictions, it can also assess the risk of misclassification. We aim at building non-asymptotic confidence regions for the regression function and suggest three kernel-based semi-parametric resampling methods. We prove that all of them guarantee regions with exact coverage probabilities and they are strongly consistent.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Krisztián Balázs Kis

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measurement noise, such as it is being symmetric or exchangeable. We show, by building on recent results from finite-sample system identification, that by perturbing the residuals in the gradient of the objective function, information can be extracted about the amount of uncertainty our model has. Particularly, we provide an algorithm to build exact, non-asymptotically guaranteed, distribution-free confidence regions for ideal, noise-free representations of the function we try to estimate. For the typical convex quadratic problems and symmetric noises, the regions are star convex centered around a given nominal estimate, and have efficient ellipsoidal outer approximations. Finally, we illustrate the ideas on typical kernel methods, such as LS-SVC, KRR, $\varepsilon$-SVR and kernelized LASSO.

Balázs Csanád Csáji

A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for economics and finance. GARCH models are typically estimated by the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) method, which works under mild statistical assumptions. Here, we suggest a finite sample approach, called ScoPe, to construct distribution-free confidence regions around the QML estimate, which have exact coverage probabilities, despite no additional assumptions about moments are made. ScoPe is inspired by the recently developed Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) method, which however cannot be applied in the GARCH case. ScoPe works by perturbing the score function using randomly permuted residuals. This produces alternative samples which lead to exact confidence regions. Experiments on simulated and stock market data are also presented, and ScoPe is compared with the asymptotic theory and bootstrap approaches.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, Zsolt Kemény, Gianfranco Pedone et al.

As urbanization proceeds at an astonishing rate, cities have to continuously improve their solutions that affect the safety, health and overall wellbeing of their residents. Smart city projects worldwide build on advanced sensor, information and communication technologies to help dealing with issues like air pollution, waste management, traffic optimization, and energy efficiency. The paper reports about the prototype of a smart city initiative in Budapest which applies various sensors installed on the public lighting system and a cloud-based analytical module. While the installed wireless multi-sensor network gathers information about a number of stressors, the module integrates and statistically processes the data. The module can handle inconsistent, missing and noisy data and can extrapolate the measurements in time and space, namely, it can create short-term forecasts and smoothed maps, both accompanied by reliability estimates. The resulting database uses geometric representations and can serve as an information centre for public services.

László Monostori, Paul Valckenaers, Alexandre Dolgui et al.

Classical applications of control engineering and information and communication technology (ICT) in production and logistics are often done in a rigid, centralized and hierarchical way. These inflexible approaches are typically not able to cope with the complexities of the manufacturing environment, such as the instabilities, uncertainties and abrupt changes caused by internal and external disturbances, or a large number and variety of interacting, interdependent elements. A paradigm shift, e.g., novel organizing principles and methods, is needed for supporting the interoperability of dynamic alliances of agile and networked systems. Several solution proposals argue that the future of manufacturing and logistics lies in network-like, dynamic, open and reconfigurable systems of cooperative autonomous entities. The paper overviews various distributed approaches and technologies of control engineering and ICT that can support the realization of cooperative structures from the resource level to the level of networked enterprises. Standard results as well as recent advances from control theory, through cooperative game theory, distributed machine learning to holonic systems, cooperative enterprise modelling, system integration, and autonomous logistics processes are surveyed. A special emphasis is put on the theoretical developments and industrial applications of Robustly Feasible Model Predictive Control (RFMPC). Two case studies are also discussed: i) a holonic, PROSA-based approach to generate short-term forecasts for an additive manufacturing system by means of a delegate multi-agent system (D-MAS); and ii) an application of distributed RFMPC to a drinking water distribution system.

Balázs Csanád Csáji, László Monostori

The paper investigates stochastic resource allocation problems with scarce, reusable resources and non-preemtive, time-dependent, interconnected tasks. This approach is a natural generalization of several standard resource management problems, such as scheduling and transportation problems. First, reactive solutions are considered and defined as control policies of suitably reformulated Markov decision processes (MDPs). We argue that this reformulation has several favorable properties, such as it has finite state and action spaces, it is aperiodic, hence all policies are proper and the space of control policies can be safely restricted. Next, approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods, such as fitted Q-learning, are suggested for computing an efficient control policy. In order to compactly maintain the cost-to-go function, two representations are studied: hash tables and support vector regression (SVR), particularly, nu-SVRs. Several additional improvements, such as the application of limited-lookahead rollout algorithms in the initial phases, action space decomposition, task clustering and distributed sampling are investigated, too. Finally, experimental results on both benchmark and industry-related data are presented.