David Danks

Mohammadsajad Abavisani, David Danks, Sergey Plis

Graphical structures estimated by causal learning algorithms from time series data can provide misleading causal information if the causal timescale of the generating process fails to match the measurement timescale of the data. Existing algorithms provide limited resources to respond to this challenge, and so researchers must either use models that they know are likely misleading, or else forego causal learning entirely. Existing methods face up-to-four distinct shortfalls, as they might 1) require that the difference between causal and measurement timescales is known; 2) only handle very small number of random variables when the timescale difference is unknown; 3) only apply to pairs of variables; or 4) be unable to find a solution given statistical noise in the data. This research addresses these challenges. Our approach combines constraint programming with both theoretical insights into the problem structure and prior information about admissible causal interactions to achieve multiple orders of magnitude in speed-up. The resulting system maintains theoretical guarantees while scaling to significantly larger sets of random variables (>100) without knowledge of timescale differences. This method is also robust to edge misidentification and can use parametric connection strengths, while optionally finding the optimal solution among many possible ones.

Mauricio Gonzalez Soto, David Danks, Hugo J. Escalante Balderas et al.

Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a formal criterion for rational choice using associative information: maximize expected utility. There is an ongoing debate around the origin of probabilities involved in such calculation. In this work, we will show how the probabilities for decision-making can be grounded in causal models by considering decision problems in which the available actions and consequences are causally connected. In this setting, actions are regarded as an intervention over a causal model. Then, we extend a previous causal decision-making result, which relies on a known causal model, to the case in which the causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational decision-maker. In this way, action-outcome probabilities can be grounded in causal models in known and unknown cases. Finally, as an application, we extend the well-known concept of Nash Equilibrium to the case in which the players of a strategic game consider causal information.

Georgios Bakirtzis, Andrea Aler Tubella, Andreas Theodorou et al.

Sociotechnical requirements shape the governance of artificially intelligent (AI) systems. In an era where embodied AI technologies are rapidly reshaping various facets of contemporary society, their inherent dynamic adaptability presents a unique blend of opportunities and challenges. Traditional regulatory mechanisms, often designed for static -- or slower-paced -- technologies, find themselves at a crossroads when faced with the fluid and evolving nature of AI systems. Moreover, typical problems in AI, for example, the frequent opacity and unpredictability of the behaviour of the systems, add additional sociotechnical challenges. To address these interconnected issues, we introduce the concept of dynamic certification, an adaptive regulatory framework specifically crafted to keep pace with the continuous evolution of AI systems. The complexity of these challenges requires common progress in multiple domains: technical, socio-governmental, and regulatory. Our proposed transdisciplinary approach is designed to ensure the safe, ethical, and practical deployment of AI systems, aligning them bidirectionally with the real-world contexts in which they operate. By doing so, we aim to bridge the gap between rapid technological advancement and effective regulatory oversight, ensuring that AI systems not only achieve their intended goals but also adhere to ethical standards and societal values.

Qiyue Gao, Xinyu Pi, Kevin Liu et al. · cmu

Internal world models (WMs) enable agents to understand the world's state and predict transitions, serving as the basis for advanced deliberative reasoning. Recent large Vision-Language Models (VLMs), such as OpenAI o3, GPT-4o and Gemini, exhibit potential as general-purpose WMs. While the latest studies have evaluated and shown limitations in specific capabilities such as visual understanding, a systematic evaluation of VLMs' fundamental WM abilities remains absent. Drawing on comparative psychology and cognitive science, we propose a two-stage framework that assesses Perception (visual, spatial, temporal, quantitative, and motion) and Prediction (mechanistic simulation, transitive inference, compositional inference) to provide an atomic evaluation of VLMs as WMs. Guided by this framework, we introduce WM-ABench, a large-scale benchmark comprising 23 fine-grained evaluation dimensions across 6 diverse simulated environments with controlled counterfactual simulations. Through 660 experiments on 15 latest commercial and open-source VLMs, we find that these models exhibit striking limitations in basic world modeling abilities. For instance, almost all models perform at near-random accuracy when distinguishing motion trajectories. Additionally, they lack disentangled understanding -- e.g., some models tend to believe blue objects move faster than green ones. More rich results and analyses reveal significant gaps between VLMs and human-level world modeling.

Jennifer Chien, David Danks

The applications of personalized recommender systems are rapidly expanding: encompassing social media, online shopping, search engine results, and more. These systems offer a more efficient way to navigate the vast array of items available. However, alongside this growth, there has been increased recognition of the potential for algorithmic systems to exhibit and perpetuate biases, risking unfairness in personalized domains. In this work, we explicate the inherent tension between personalization and conventional implementations of fairness. As an alternative, we propose equity to achieve fairness in the context of epistemic utility. We provide a mapping between goals and practical implementations and detail policy recommendations across key stakeholders to forge a path towards achieving fairness in personalized systems.

Nandhini Swaminathan, David Danks

As quantum machine learning (QML) emerges as a promising field at the intersection of quantum computing and artificial intelligence, it becomes crucial to address the biases and challenges that arise from the unique nature of quantum systems. This research includes work on identification, diagnosis, and response to biases in Quantum Machine Learning. This paper aims to provide an overview of three key topics: How does bias unique to Quantum Machine Learning look? Why and how can it occur? What can and should be done about it?

Nigel Doering, Rahath Malladi, Arshia Sangwan et al.

Theory of mind (ToM) enables AI systems to infer agents' hidden goals and mental states, but existing approaches focus mainly on small human understandable gridworld spaces. We introduce HiVAE, a hierarchical variational architecture that scales ToM reasoning to realistic spatiotemporal domains. Inspired by the belief-desire-intention structure of human cognition, our three-level VAE hierarchy achieves substantial performance improvements on a 3,185-node campus navigation task. However, we identify a critical limitation: while our hierarchical structure improves prediction, learned latent representations lack explicit grounding to actual mental states. We propose self-supervised alignment strategies and present this work to solicit community feedback on grounding approaches.

Nandhini Swaminathan, David Danks

This study offers an in-depth analysis of the application and implications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology's AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF) within the domain of surveillance technologies, particularly facial recognition technology. Given the inherently high-risk and consequential nature of facial recognition systems, our research emphasizes the critical need for a structured approach to risk management in this sector. The paper presents a detailed case study demonstrating the utility of the NIST AI RMF in identifying and mitigating risks that might otherwise remain unnoticed in these technologies. Our primary objective is to develop a comprehensive risk management strategy that advances the practice of responsible AI utilization in feasible, scalable ways. We propose a six-step process tailored to the specific challenges of surveillance technology that aims to produce a more systematic and effective risk management practice. This process emphasizes continual assessment and improvement to facilitate companies in managing AI-related risks more robustly and ensuring ethical and responsible deployment of AI systems. Additionally, our analysis uncovers and discusses critical gaps in the current framework of the NIST AI RMF, particularly concerning its application to surveillance technologies. These insights contribute to the evolving discourse on AI governance and risk management, highlighting areas for future refinement and development in frameworks like the NIST AI RMF.

Daniel Trusilo, David Danks

This paper presents a theoretical analysis and practical approach to the moral responsibilities when developing AI systems for non-military applications that may nonetheless be used for conflict applications. We argue that AI represents a form of crossover technology that is different from previous historical examples of dual- or multi-use technology as it has a multiplicative effect across other technologies. As a result, existing analyses of ethical responsibilities around dual-use technologies do not necessarily work for AI systems. We instead argue that stakeholders involved in the AI system lifecycle are morally responsible for uses of their systems that are reasonably foreseeable. The core idea is that an agent's moral responsibility for some action is not necessarily determined by their intentions alone; we must also consider what the agent could reasonably have foreseen to be potential outcomes of their action, such as the potential use of a system in conflict even when it is not designed for that. In particular, we contend that it is reasonably foreseeable that: (1) civilian AI systems will be applied to active conflict, including conflict support activities, (2) the use of civilian AI systems in conflict will impact applications of the law of armed conflict, and (3) crossover AI technology will be applied to conflicts that fall short of armed conflict. Given these reasonably foreseeably outcomes, we present three technically feasible actions that developers of civilian AIs can take to potentially mitigate their moral responsibility: (a) establishing systematic approaches to multi-perspective capability testing, (b) integrating digital watermarking in model weight matrices, and (c) utilizing monitoring and reporting mechanisms for conflict-related AI applications.

Mohammadsajad Abavisani, Kseniya Solovyeva, David Danks et al.

Learning graphical causal structures from time series data presents significant challenges, especially when the measurement frequency does not match the causal timescale of the system. This often leads to a set of equally possible underlying causal graphs due to information loss from sub-sampling (i.e., not observing all possible states of the system throughout time). Our research addresses this challenge by incorporating the effects of sub-sampling in the derivation of causal graphs, resulting in more accurate and intuitive outcomes. We use a constraint optimization approach, specifically answer set programming (ASP), to find the optimal set of answers. ASP not only identifies the most probable underlying graph, but also provides an equivalence class of possible graphs for expert selection. In addition, using ASP allows us to leverage graph theory to further prune the set of possible solutions, yielding a smaller, more accurate answer set significantly faster than traditional approaches. We validate our approach on both simulated data and empirical structural brain connectivity, and demonstrate its superiority over established methods in these experiments. We further show how our method can be used as a meta-approach on top of established methods to obtain, on average, 12% improvement in F1 score. In addition, we achieved state of the art results in terms of precision and recall of reconstructing causal graph from sub-sampled time series data. Finally, our method shows robustness to varying degrees of sub-sampling on realistic simulations, whereas other methods perform worse for higher rates of sub-sampling.

Praveen Nair, Payal Bhandari, Mohammadsajad Abavisani et al.

In many causal learning problems, variables of interest are often not all measured over the same observations, but are instead distributed across multiple datasets with overlapping variables. Tillman et al. (2008) presented the first algorithm for enumerating the minimal equivalence class of ground-truth DAGs consistent with all input graphs by exploiting local independence relations, called ION. In this paper, this problem is formulated as a more computationally efficient answer set programming (ASP) problem, which we call ION-C, and solved with the ASP system clingo. The ION-C algorithm was run on random synthetic graphs with varying sizes, densities, and degrees of overlap between subgraphs, with overlap having the largest impact on runtime, number of solution graphs, and agreement within the output set. To validate ION-C on real-world data, we ran the algorithm on overlapping graphs learned from data from two successive iterations of the European Social Survey (ESS), using a procedure for conducting joint independence tests to prevent inconsistencies in the input.

Nandhini Swaminathan, David Danks

One strategy in response to pluralistic values in a user population is to personalize an AI system: if the AI can adapt to the specific values of each individual, then we can potentially avoid many of the challenges of pluralism. Unfortunately, this approach creates a significant ethical issue: if there is an external measure of success for the human-AI team, then the adaptive AI system may develop strategies (sometimes deceptive) to compensate for its human teammate. This phenomenon can be viewed as a form of social compensation, where the AI makes decisions based not on predefined goals but on its human partner's deficiencies in relation to the team's performance objectives. We provide a practical ethical analysis of the conditions in which such compensation may nonetheless be justifiable.

Jennifer Chien, David Danks

Algorithmic harms are commonly categorized as either allocative or representational. This study specifically addresses the latter, focusing on an examination of current definitions of representational harms to discern what is included and what is not. This analysis motivates our expansion beyond behavioral definitions to encompass harms to cognitive and affective states. The paper outlines high-level requirements for measurement: identifying the necessary expertise to implement this approach and illustrating it through a case study. Our work highlights the unique vulnerabilities of large language models to perpetrating representational harms, particularly when these harms go unmeasured and unmitigated. The work concludes by presenting proposed mitigations and delineating when to employ them. The overarching aim of this research is to establish a framework for broadening the definition of representational harms and to translate insights from fairness research into practical measurement and mitigation praxis.

Mauricio Gonzalez Soto, David Danks, Hugo J. Escalante Balderas et al.

Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a formal criterion for rational choice using associative information: maximize expected utility. There is an ongoing debate around the origin of probabilities involved in such calculation. In this work, we will show how the probabilities for decision-making can be grounded in causal models by considering decision problems in which the available actions and consequences are causally connected. In this setting, actions are regarded as an intervention over a causal model. Then, we extend a previous causal decision-making result, which relies on a known causal model, to the case in which the causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational decision-maker. In this way, action-outcome probabilities can be grounded in causal models in known and unknown cases. Finally, as an application, we extend the well-known concept of Nash Equilibrium to the case in which the players of a strategic game consider causal information.

Antti Hyttinen, Sergey Plis, Matti Järvisalo et al.

This paper focuses on causal structure estimation from time series data in which measurements are obtained at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. Previous work has shown that such subsampling can lead to significant errors about the system's causal structure if not properly taken into account. In this paper, we first consider the search for the system timescale causal structures that correspond to a given measurement timescale structure. We provide a constraint satisfaction procedure whose computational performance is several orders of magnitude better than previous approaches. We then consider finite-sample data as input, and propose the first constraint optimization approach for recovering the system timescale causal structure. This algorithm optimally recovers from possible conflicts due to statistical errors. More generally, these advances allow for a robust and non-parametric estimation of system timescale causal structures from subsampled time series data.

David Danks, Clark Glymour

It is "well known" that in linear models: (1) testable constraints on the marginal distribution of observed variables distinguish certain cases in which an unobserved cause jointly influences several observed variables; (2) the technique of "instrumental variables" sometimes permits an estimation of the influence of one variable on another even when the association between the variables may be confounded by unobserved common causes; (3) the association (or conditional probability distribution of one variable given another) of two variables connected by a path or trek can be computed directly from the parameter values associated with each edge in the path or trek; (4) the association of two variables produced by multiple treks can be computed from the parameters associated with each trek; and (5) the independence of two variables conditional on a third implies the corresponding independence of the sums of the variables over all units conditional on the sums over all units of each of the original conditioning variables.These properties are exploited in search procedures. It is also known that properties (2)-(5) do not hold for all Bayes nets with binary variables. We show that (1) holds for all Bayes nets with binary variables and (5) holds for all singly trek-connected Bayes nets of that kind. We further show that all five properties hold for Bayes nets with any DAG and binary variables parameterized with noisy-or and noisy-and gates.