Arun Kumar Verma

Arun Verma, Zhongxiang Dai, Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely-used sequential method for zeroth-order optimization of complex and expensive-to-compute black-box functions. The existing BO methods assume that the function evaluation (feedback) is available to the learner immediately or after a fixed delay. Such assumptions may not be practical in many real-life problems like online recommendations, clinical trials, and hyperparameter tuning where feedback is available after a random delay. To benefit from the experimental parallelization in these problems, the learner needs to start new function evaluations without waiting for delayed feedback. In this paper, we consider the BO under stochastic delayed feedback problem. We propose algorithms with sub-linear regret guarantees that efficiently address the dilemma of selecting new function queries while waiting for randomly delayed feedback. Building on our results, we also make novel contributions to batch BO and contextual Gaussian process bandits. Experiments on synthetic and real-life datasets verify the performance of our algorithms.

Srijith Balakrishnan, Beatrice Cassottana, Arun Verma

Recent studies increasingly adopt simulation-based machine learning (ML) models to analyze critical infrastructure system resilience. For realistic applications, these ML models consider the component-level characteristics that influence the network response during emergencies. However, such an approach could result in a large number of features and cause ML models to suffer from the `curse of dimensionality'. We present a clustering-based method that simultaneously minimizes the problem of high-dimensionality and improves the prediction accuracy of ML models developed for resilience analysis in large-scale interdependent infrastructure networks. The methodology has three parts: (a) generation of simulation dataset, (b) network component clustering, and (c) dimensionality reduction and development of prediction models. First, an interdependent infrastructure simulation model simulates the network-wide consequences of various disruptive events. The component-level features are extracted from the simulated data. Next, clustering algorithms are used to derive the cluster-level features by grouping component-level features based on their topological and functional characteristics. Finally, ML algorithms are used to develop models that predict the network-wide impacts of disruptive events using the cluster-level features. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using an interdependent power-water-transport testbed. The proposed method can be used to develop decision-support tools for post-disaster recovery of infrastructure networks.

Arun Verma

This thesis considers sequential decision problems, where the loss/reward incurred by selecting an action may not be inferred from observed feedback. A major part of this thesis focuses on the unsupervised sequential selection problem, where one can not infer the loss incurred for selecting an action from observed feedback. We also introduce a new setup named Censored Semi Bandits, where the loss incurred for selecting an action can be observed under certain conditions. Finally, we study the channel selection problem in the communication networks, where the reward for an action is only observed when no other player selects that action to play in the round. These problems find applications in many fields like healthcare, crowd-sourcing, security, adaptive resource allocation, among many others. This thesis aims to address the above-described sequential decision problems by exploiting specific structures these problems exhibit. We develop provably optimal algorithms for each of these setups with weak feedback and validate their empirical performance on different problem instances derived from synthetic and real datasets.

Arun Verma

This thesis considers sequential decision problems, where the loss/reward incurred by selecting an action may not be inferred from observed feedback. A major part of this thesis focuses on the unsupervised sequential selection problem, where one can not infer the loss incurred for selecting an action from observed feedback. We also introduce a new setup named Censored Semi Bandits, where the loss incurred for selecting an action can be observed under certain conditions. Finally, we study the channel selection problem in the communication networks, where the reward for an action is only observed when no other player selects that action to play in the round. These problems find applications in many fields like healthcare, crowd-sourcing, security, adaptive resource allocation, among many others. This thesis aims to address the above-described sequential decision problems by exploiting specific structures these problems exhibit. We develop provably optimal algorithms for each of these setups with weak feedback and validate their empirical performance on different problem instances derived from synthetic and real datasets.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal

This paper studies a new variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandits problem where auxiliary information about the arm rewards is available in the form of control variates. In many applications like queuing and wireless networks, the arm rewards are functions of some exogenous variables. The mean values of these variables are known a priori from historical data and can be used as control variates. Leveraging the theory of control variates, we obtain mean estimates with smaller variance and tighter confidence bounds. We develop an upper confidence bound based algorithm named UCB-CV and characterize the regret bounds in terms of the correlation between rewards and control variates when they follow a multivariate normal distribution. We also extend UCB-CV to other distributions using resampling methods like Jackknifing and Splitting. Experiments on synthetic problem instances validate performance guarantees of the proposed algorithms.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal, Arun Rajkumar et al.

We consider the problem of sequentially allocating resources in a censored semi-bandits setup, where the learner allocates resources at each step to the arms and observes loss. The loss depends on two hidden parameters, one specific to the arm but independent of the resource allocation, and the other depends on the allocated resource. More specifically, the loss equals zero for an arm if the resource allocated to it exceeds a constant (but unknown) arm dependent threshold. The goal is to learn a resource allocation that minimizes the expected loss. The problem is challenging because the loss distribution and threshold value of each arm are unknown. We study this setting by establishing its `equivalence' to Multiple-Play Multi-Armed Bandits (MP-MAB) and Combinatorial Semi-Bandits. Exploiting these equivalences, we derive optimal algorithms for our problem setting using known algorithms for MP-MAB and Combinatorial Semi-Bandits. The experiments on synthetically generated data validate the performance guarantees of the proposed algorithms.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal, Csaba Szepesvári et al.

In this paper, we study Contextual Unsupervised Sequential Selection (USS), a new variant of the stochastic contextual bandits problem where the loss of an arm cannot be inferred from the observed feedback. In our setup, arms are associated with fixed costs and are ordered, forming a cascade. In each round, a context is presented, and the learner selects the arms sequentially till some depth. The total cost incurred by stopping at an arm is the sum of fixed costs of arms selected and the stochastic loss associated with the arm. The learner's goal is to learn a decision rule that maps contexts to arms with the goal of minimizing the total expected loss. The problem is challenging as we are faced with an unsupervised setting as the total loss cannot be estimated. Clearly, learning is feasible only if the optimal arm can be inferred (explicitly or implicitly) from the problem structure. We observe that learning is still possible when the problem instance satisfies the so-called 'Contextual Weak Dominance' (CWD) property. Under CWD, we propose an algorithm for the contextual USS problem and demonstrate that it has sub-linear regret. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets validate our algorithm.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal, Nandyala Hemachandra

Thompson Sampling has generated significant interest due to its better empirical performance than upper confidence bound based algorithms. In this paper, we study Thompson Sampling based algorithm for Unsupervised Sequential Selection (USS) problem. The USS problem is a variant of the stochastic multi-armed bandits problem, where the loss of an arm can not be inferred from the observed feedback. In the USS setup, arms are associated with fixed costs and are ordered, forming a cascade. In each round, the learner selects an arm and observes the feedback from arms up to the selected arm. The learner's goal is to find the arm that minimizes the expected total loss. The total loss is the sum of the cost incurred for selecting the arm and the stochastic loss associated with the selected arm. The problem is challenging because, without knowing the mean loss, one cannot compute the total loss for the selected arm. Clearly, learning is feasible only if the optimal arm can be inferred from the problem structure. As shown in the prior work, learning is possible when the problem instance satisfies the so-called `Weak Dominance' (WD) property. Under WD, we show that our Thompson Sampling based algorithm for the USS problem achieves near optimal regret and has better numerical performance than existing algorithms.

Debamita Ghosh, Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal

Recent advances in wireless radio frequency (RF) energy harvesting allows sensor nodes to increase their lifespan by remotely charging their batteries. The amount of energy harvested by the nodes varies depending on their ambient environment, and proximity to the source. The lifespan of the sensor network depends on the minimum amount of energy a node can harvest in the network. It is thus important to learn the least amount of energy harvested by nodes so that the source can transmit on a frequency band that maximizes this amount. We model this learning problem as a novel stochastic Maximin Multi-Armed Bandits (Maximin MAB) problem and propose an Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) based algorithm named Maximin UCB. Maximin MAB is a generalization of standard MAB and enjoys the same performance guarantee as that of the UCB1 algorithm. Experimental results validate the performance guarantees of our algorithm.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal, Arun Rajkumar et al.

In this paper, we study censored Semi-Bandits, a novel variant of the semi-bandits problem. The learner is assumed to have a fixed amount of resources, which it allocates to the arms at each time step. The loss observed from an arm is random and depends on the amount of resources allocated to it. More specifically, the loss equals zero if the allocation for the arm exceeds a constant (but unknown)threshold that can be dependent on the arm. Our goal is to learn a feasible allocation that minimizes the expected loss. The problem is challenging because the loss distribution and threshold value of each arm are unknown. We study this novel setting by establishing its `equivalence' to Multiple-Play Multi-Armed Bandits(MP-MAB) and Combinatorial Semi-Bandits. Exploiting these equivalences, we derive optimal algorithms for our setting using existing algorithms for MP-MABand Combinatorial Semi-Bandits. Experiments on synthetically generated data validate performance guarantees of the proposed algorithms.

Arun Verma, Manjesh K. Hanawal, Csaba Szepesvári et al.

In many security and healthcare systems, the detection and diagnosis systems use a sequence of sensors/tests. Each test outputs a prediction of the latent state and carries an inherent cost. However, the correctness of the predictions cannot be evaluated since the ground truth annotations may not be available. Our objective is to learn strategies for selecting a test that gives the best trade-off between accuracy and costs in such Unsupervised Sensor Selection (USS) problems. Clearly, learning is feasible only if ground truth can be inferred (explicitly or implicitly) from the problem structure. It is observed that this happens if the problem satisfies the 'Weak Dominance' (WD) property. We set up the USS problem as a stochastic partial monitoring problem and develop an algorithm with sub-linear regret under the WD property. We argue that our algorithm is optimal and evaluate its performance on problem instances generated from synthetic and real-world datasets.