Andrew F. Ilersich

Andrew F. Ilersich, Kevin Course, Prasanth B. Nair

Modeling complex dynamical systems under varying conditions is computationally intensive, often rendering high-fidelity simulations intractable. Although reduced-order models (ROMs) offer a promising solution, current methods often struggle with stochastic dynamics and fail to quantify prediction uncertainty, limiting their utility in robust decision-making contexts. To address these challenges, we introduce a data-driven framework for learning continuous-time stochastic ROMs that generalize across parameter spaces and forcing conditions. Our approach, based on amortized stochastic variational inference, leverages a reparametrization trick for Markov Gaussian processes to eliminate the need for computationally expensive forward solvers during training. This enables us to jointly learn a probabilistic autoencoder and stochastic differential equations governing the latent dynamics, at a computational cost that is independent of the dataset size and system stiffness. Additionally, our approach offers the flexibility of incorporating physics-informed priors if available. Numerical studies are presented for three challenging test problems, where we demonstrate excellent generalization to unseen parameter combinations and forcings, and significant efficiency gains compared to existing approaches.

Andrew F. Ilersich, Prasanth B. Nair

The physical sciences are replete with dynamical systems that require the resolution of a wide range of length and time scales. This presents significant computational challenges since direct numerical simulation requires discretization at the finest relevant scales, leading to a high-dimensional state space. In this work, we propose an approach to learn stochastic multiscale models in the form of stochastic differential equations directly from observational data. Drawing inspiration from physics-based multiscale modeling approaches, we resolve the macroscale state on a coarse mesh while introducing a microscale latent state to explicitly model unresolved dynamics. We learn the parameters of the multiscale model using a simulator-free amortized variational inference method with a Product of Experts likelihood that enforces scale separation. We present detailed numerical studies to demonstrate that our learned multiscale models achieve superior predictive accuracy compared to under-resolved direct numerical simulation and closure-type models at equivalent resolution, as well as reduced-order modeling approaches.