Asmeret Naugle

Scott T Steinmetz, Asmeret Naugle, Paul Schutte et al.

Recent proliferation of powerful AI systems has created a strong need for capabilities that help users to calibrate trust in those systems. As AI systems grow in scale, information required to evaluate their trustworthiness becomes less accessible, presenting a growing risk of using these systems inappropriately. We propose the Trust Calibration Maturity Model (TCMM) to characterize and communicate information about AI system trustworthiness. The TCMM incorporates five dimensions of analytic maturity: Performance Characterization, Bias & Robustness Quantification, Transparency, Safety & Security, and Usability. The TCMM can be presented along with system performance information to (1) help a user to appropriately calibrate trust, (2) establish requirements and track progress, and (3) identify research needs. Here, we discuss the TCMM and demonstrate it on two target tasks: using ChatGPT for high consequence nuclear science determinations, and using PhaseNet (an ensemble of seismic models) for categorizing sources of seismic events.

Asmeret Naugle, Saeed Langarudi, Timothy Clancy

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and artificial intelligence, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics.