Takanori Muroi

Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura et al.

Automated decision-making algorithms drive applications such as recommendation systems and search engines. These algorithms often rely on off-policy contextual bandits or off-policy learning (OPL). Conventionally, OPL selects actions that maximize the expected reward from an existing action set. However, in many real-world scenarios, actions, such as news articles or video content, change continuously, and the action space evolves over time after data collection. We define actions introduced after deploying the logging policy as new actions and focus on OPL with new actions. Existing OPL methods identify optimal actions from the existing set effectively but cannot learn and select new actions because no relevant data are logged. To address this limitation, we propose a new OPL method that leverages action features. We first introduce the Local Combination PseudoInverse (LCPI) estimator for the policy gradient, generalizing the PseudoInverse estimator initially proposed for off-policy evaluation of slate bandits. LCPI controls the trade-off between reward-modeling condition and the condition for data collection regarding the action features, capturing the interaction effects among different dimensions of action features. Furthermore, we propose a generalized algorithm called Policy Optimization for Effective New Actions (PONA), which integrates LCPI, a component specialized for new action selection, with Doubly Robust (DR), which excels at learning within existing actions. We define PONA as a weighted sum of the LCPI and DR estimators, optimizing both the selection of existing and new actions, and allowing the proportion of new action selections to be adjusted by the weight parameter. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that PONA efficiently selects new actions while maintaining the overall policy performance as opposed to most existing methods that cannot select new actions.

Koichi Tanaka, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi et al.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) is an important practical problem in algorithmic ranking systems, where the goal is to estimate the expected performance of a new ranking policy using only offline logged data collected under a different, logging policy. Existing estimators, such as the ranking-wise and position-wise inverse propensity score (IPS) estimators, require the data collection policy to be sufficiently stochastic and suffer from severe bias when the logging policy is fully deterministic. In this paper, we propose novel estimators, Click-based Inverse Propensity Score (CIPS), exploiting the intrinsic stochasticity of user click behavior to address this challenge. Unlike existing methods that rely on the stochasticity of the logging policy, our approach uses click probability as a new form of importance weighting, enabling low-bias OPE even under deterministic logging policies where existing methods incur substantial bias. We provide theoretical analyses of the bias and variance properties of the proposed estimators and show, through synthetic and real-world experiments, that our estimators achieve significantly lower bias compared to strong baselines, for a range of experimental settings with completely deterministic logging policies.

Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi et al.

We study the novel problem of future off-policy evaluation (F-OPE) and learning (F-OPL) for estimating and optimizing the future value of policies in non-stationary environments, where distributions vary over time. In e-commerce recommendations, for instance, our goal is often to estimate and optimize the policy value for the upcoming month using data collected by an old policy in the previous month. A critical challenge is that data related to the future environment is not observed in the historical data. Existing methods assume stationarity or depend on restrictive reward-modeling assumptions, leading to significant bias. To address these limitations, we propose a novel estimator named \textit{\textbf{O}ff-\textbf{P}olicy Estimator for the \textbf{F}uture \textbf{V}alue (\textbf{\textit{OPFV}})}, designed for accurately estimating policy values at any future time point. The key feature of OPFV is its ability to leverage the useful structure within time-series data. While future data might not be present in the historical log, we can leverage, for example, seasonal, weekly, or holiday effects that are consistent in both the historical and future data. Our estimator is the first to exploit these time-related structures via a new type of importance weighting, enabling effective F-OPE. Theoretical analysis identifies the conditions under which OPFV becomes low-bias. In addition, we extend our estimator to develop a new policy-gradient method to proactively learn a good future policy using only historical data. Empirical results show that our methods substantially outperform existing methods in estimating and optimizing the future policy value under non-stationarity for various experimental setups.