Reham Badawy

Yordan P. Raykov, Luc J. W. Evers, Reham Badawy et al.

Passive monitoring in daily life may provide invaluable insights about a person's health throughout the day. Wearable sensor devices are likely to play a key role in enabling such monitoring in a non-obtrusive fashion. However, sensor data collected in daily life reflects multiple health and behavior related factors together. This creates the need for structured principled analysis to produce reliable and interpretable predictions that can be used to support clinical diagnosis and treatment. In this work we develop a principled modelling approach for free-living gait (walking) analysis. Gait is a promising target for non-obtrusive monitoring because it is common and indicative of various movement disorders such as Parkinson's disease (PD), yet its analysis has largely been limited to experimentally controlled lab settings. To locate and characterize stationary gait segments in free living using accelerometers, we present an unsupervised statistical framework designed to segment signals into differing gait and non-gait patterns. Our flexible probabilistic framework combines empirical assumptions about gait into a principled graphical model with all of its merits. We demonstrate the approach on a new video-referenced dataset including unscripted daily living activities of 25 PD patients and 25 controls, in and around their own houses. We evaluate our ability to detect gait and predict medication induced fluctuations in PD patients based on modelled gait. Our evaluation includes a comparison between sensors attached at multiple body locations including wrist, ankle, trouser pocket and lower back.

Max A. Little, Reham Badawy

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements are not from controlled experimental (interventional) settings, since cause and effect can be obscured by spurious, indirect influences. Modern predictive techniques from machine learning are capable of capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear relationships between variables while relying on few parametric or probabilistic model assumptions. However, since these techniques are associational, applied to observational data they are prone to picking up spurious influences from non-experimental (observational) data, making their predictions unreliable. Techniques from causal inference, such as probabilistic causal diagrams and do-calculus, provide powerful (nonparametric) tools for drawing causal inferences from such observational data. However, these techniques are often incompatible with modern, nonparametric machine learning algorithms since they typically require explicit probabilistic models. Here, we develop causal bootstrapping for augmenting classical nonparametric bootstrap resampling with information on the causal relationship between variables. This makes it possible to resample observational data such that, if it is possible to identify an interventional relationship from that data, new data representing that relationship can be simulated from the original observational data. In this way, we can use modern machine learning algorithms unaltered to make statistically powerful, yet causally-robust, predictions. We develop several causal bootstrapping algorithms for drawing interventional inferences from observational data, for classification and regression problems, and demonstrate, using synthetic and real-world examples, the value of this approach.