Alex Rogers

Nipun Batra, Oliver Parson, Mario Berges et al.

Non intrusive load monitoring (NILM), or energy disaggregation, is the process of separating the total electricity consumption of a building as measured at single point into the building's constituent loads. Previous research in the field has mostly focused on residential buildings, and although the potential benefits of applying this technology to commercial buildings have been recognised since the field's conception, NILM in the commercial domain has been largely unexplored by the academic community. As a result of the heterogeneity of this section of the building stock (i.e., encompassing buildings as diverse as airports, malls and coffee shops), and hence the loads within them, many of the solutions developed for residential energy disaggregation do not apply directly. In this paper we highlight some insights for NILM in the commercial domain using data collected from a large smart meter deployment within an educational campus in Delhi, India, of which a subset of the data has been released for public use. We present an empirical characterisation of loads in commercial buildings, highlighting the differences in energy consumption and load characteristics between residential and commercial buildings. We assess the validity of the assumptions generally made by NILM solutions for residential buildings when applied to measurements from commercial facilities. Based on our observations, we discuss the required traits for a NILM system for commercial buildings, and run benchmark residential NILM algorithms on our data set to confirm our observations. To advance the research in commercial buildings energy disaggregation, we release a subset of our data set, called COMBED (commercial building energy data set).

Dongge Han, Michael Wooldridge, Alex Rogers et al.

Submodular functions have been a powerful mathematical model for a wide range of real-world applications. Recently, submodular functions are becoming increasingly important in machine learning (ML) for modelling notions such as information and redundancy among entities such as data and features. Among these applications, a key question is payoff allocation, i.e., how to evaluate the importance of each entity towards the collective objective? To this end, classic solution concepts from cooperative game theory offer principled approaches to payoff allocation. However, despite the extensive body of game-theoretic literature, payoff allocation in submodular games are relatively under-researched. In particular, an important notion that arises in the emerging submodular applications is redundancy, which may occur from various sources such as abundant data or malicious manipulations where a player replicates its resource and act under multiple identities. Though many game-theoretic solution concepts can be directly used in submodular games, naively applying them for payoff allocation in these settings may incur robustness issues against replication. In this paper, we systematically study the replication manipulation in submodular games and investigate replication robustness, a metric that quantitatively measures the robustness of solution concepts against replication. Using this metric, we present conditions which theoretically characterise the robustness of semivalues, a wide family of solution concepts including the Shapley and Banzhaf value. Moreover, we empirically validate our theoretical results on an emerging submodular ML application, i.e., the ML data market.

Dongge Han, Wendelin Boehmer, Michael Wooldridge et al.

In a multi-agent system, an agent's optimal policy will typically depend on the policies chosen by others. Therefore, a key issue in multi-agent systems research is that of predicting the behaviours of others, and responding promptly to changes in such behaviours. One obvious possibility is for each agent to broadcast their current intention, for example, the currently executed option in a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework. However, this approach results in inflexibility of agents if options have an extended duration and are dynamic. While adjusting the executed option at each step improves flexibility from a single-agent perspective, frequent changes in options can induce inconsistency between an agent's actual behaviour and its broadcast intention. In order to balance flexibility and predictability, we propose a dynamic termination Bellman equation that allows the agents to flexibly terminate their options. We evaluate our model empirically on a set of multi-agent pursuit and taxi tasks, and show that our agents learn to adapt flexibly across scenarios that require different termination behaviours.

Steven Reece, Stephen Roberts, Siddhartha Ghosh et al.

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially when closed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world problems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a new sparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency, as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic or near periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate one generative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generated from Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses these priors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings and show that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We also apply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are modelled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs. Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can reduce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of the nearest rival approach which is the resonator model.

James McInerney, Alex Rogers, Nicholas R. Jennings

In many developing countries, half the population lives in rural locations, where access to essentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to standard road delivery) in which the existing mobility habits of a local population are leveraged to deliver aid, which raises two technical challenges in the areas optimisation and learning. For optimisation, a standard Markov decision process applied to this problem is intractable, so we provide an exact formulation that takes advantage of the periodicities in human location behaviour. To learn such behaviour models from sparse data (i.e., cell tower observations), we develop a Bayesian model of human mobility. Using real cell tower data of the mobility behaviour of 50,000 individuals in Ivory Coast, we find that our model outperforms the state of the art approaches in mobility prediction by at least 25% (in held-out data likelihood). Furthermore, when incorporating mobility prediction with our MDP approach, we find a 81.3% reduction in total delivery time versus routine planning that minimises just the number of participants in the solution path.

Long Tran-Thanh, Archie Chapman, Alex Rogers et al.

In budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, the learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget. Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variants of MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. Given this, we develop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii) fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performance up to 40% in our experimental settings, the latter is computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmic upper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differ from the best possible regret by a constant factor).