Hira Saleem

Declan J. Curran, Sanaa Hobeichi, Hira Saleem et al.

Downscaling is essential for generating the high-resolution climate data needed for local planning, but traditional methods remain computationally demanding. Recent years have seen impressive results from AI downscaling models, particularly diffusion models, which have attracted attention due to their ability to generate ensembles and overcome the smoothing problem common in other AI methods. However, these models typically remain computationally intensive. We introduce a Hierarchical Diffusion Downscaling (HDD) model, which introduces an easily-extensible hierarchical sampling process to the diffusion framework. A coarse-to-fine hierarchy is imposed via a simple downsampling scheme. HDD achieves competitive accuracy on ERA5 reanalysis datasets and CMIP6 models, significantly reducing computational load by running on up to half as many pixels with competitive results. Additionally, a single model trained at 0.25° resolution transfers seamlessly across multiple CMIP6 models with much coarser resolution. HDD thus offers a lightweight alternative for probabilistic climate downscaling, facilitating affordable large-ensemble high-resolution climate projections. See a full code implementation at: https://github.com/HDD-Hierarchical-Diffusion-Downscaling/HDD-Hierarchical-Diffusion-Downscaling.

Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac Purcell

Operational weather prediction has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP), whose accuracy comes at the cost of substantial compute and complex simulation workflows. Recent transformer-based forecasters offer efficient data-driven alternatives, however transformers are physics-agnostic models. Additionally, standard transformer encoders evolve representations through discrete layer updates that may be less suited to modeling smooth latent dynamics. In this work, we propose a continuous-depth transformer encoder for weather forecasting that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) dynamics within each encoder block. Specifically, we replace discrete residual updates with ODE-based updates solved using adaptive numerical integration. We also introduce a two-branch attention module that combines conventional patch-wise self-attention with an auxiliary branch that applies a derivative operator to attention logits, providing an additional change-sensitive interaction signal. To further align forecasts with governing principles, we propose a customized physics-informed training objective that enforces physical consistency as a soft constraint. We evaluate the proposed method against a standard discrete transformer baseline and an existing continuous-time Neural ODE forecasting variant, demonstrating the importance of PINN-Cast in short term weather forecasting.

Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac Purcell

Operational weather forecasting system relies on computationally expensive physics-based models. Recently, transformer based models have shown remarkable potential in weather forecasting achieving state-of-the-art results. However, transformers are discrete and physics-agnostic models which limit their ability to learn the continuous spatio-temporal features of the dynamical weather system. We address this issue with STC-ViT, a Spatio-Temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for weather forecasting. STC-ViT incorporates the continuous time Neural ODE layers with multi-head attention mechanism to learn the continuous weather evolution over time. The attention mechanism is encoded as a differentiable function in the transformer architecture to model the complex weather dynamics. Further, we define a customised physics informed loss for STC-ViT which penalize the model's predictions for deviating away from physical laws. We evaluate STC-ViT against operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and several deep learning based weather forecasting models. STC-ViT, trained on 1.5-degree 6-hourly data, demonstrates computational efficiency and competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art data-driven models trained on higher-resolution data for global forecasting.

Declan Curran, Hira Saleem, Sanaa Hobeichi et al.

Understanding future weather changes at regional and local scales is crucial for planning and decision-making, particularly in the context of extreme weather events, as well as for broader applications in agriculture, insurance, and infrastructure development. However, the computational cost of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs) to the fine resolutions needed for such applications presents a significant barrier. Drawing on advancements in weather forecasting models, this study introduces a cost-efficient downscaling method using a pretrained Earth Vision Transformer (Earth ViT) model. Initially trained on ERA5 data to downscale from 50 km to 25 km resolution, the model is then tested on the higher resolution BARRA-SY dataset at a 3 km resolution. Remarkably, it performs well without additional training, demonstrating its ability to generalize across different resolutions. This approach holds promise for generating large ensembles of regional climate simulations by downscaling GCMs with varying input resolutions without incurring additional training costs. Ultimately, this method could provide more comprehensive estimates of potential future changes in key climate variables, aiding in effective planning for extreme weather events and climate change adaptation strategies.

Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac Purcell

Physics based numerical climate models serve as critical tools for evaluating the effects of climate change and projecting future climate scenarios. However, the reliance on numerical simulations of physical equations renders them computationally intensive and inefficient. While deep learning methodologies have made significant progress in weather forecasting, they are still unstable for longer roll-out climate emulation task. Here, we propose PACER, a relatively lightweight 2.1M parameter Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate EmulatoR. PACER is trained across is trained across varying spatial resolutions and physics based climate models, enabling faithful and stable emulation of temperature fields at multiple surface levels over a 10 year horizon. We propose an auto-regressive ODE-SDE framework for climate emulation that integrates the fundamental physical law of advection, while being trained under a negative log-likelihood objective to enable principled uncertainty quantification of stochastic variability. We show PACER's emulation performance across 20 climate models outperforming relevant baselines and advancing towards explicit physics infusion in ML emulator.