Ileana Montoya Perez

H. Ahmed, R. Shende, I. Perez et al.

Reliable performance metrics are necessary prerequisites to building large-scale end-to-end integrated workflows for collaborative scientific research, particularly within context of use-inspired decision making platforms with many concurrent users and when computing real-time and urgent results using large data. This work is a building block for the National Data Platform, which leverages multiple use-cases including the WIFIRE Data and Model Commons for wildfire behavior modeling and the EarthScope Consortium for collaborative geophysical research. This paper presents an artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) approach to performance assessment and optimization of scientific workflows. An associated early AI/ML framework spanning performance data collection, prediction and optimization is applied to wildfire science applications within the WIFIRE BurnPro3D (BP3D) platform for proactive fire management and mitigation.

Ileana Montoya Perez, Parisa Movahedi, Valtteri Nieminen et al.

Background: Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution for sharing anonymized versions of sensitive biomedical datasets. Ideally, synthetic data should preserve the structure and statistical properties of the original data, while protecting the privacy of the individual subjects. Differential privacy (DP) is currently considered the gold standard approach for balancing this trade-off. Objectives: To investigate the reliability of group differences identified by independent sample tests on DP-synthetic data. The evaluation is conducted in terms of the tests' Type I and Type II errors. The former quantifies the tests' validity i.e. whether the probability of false discoveries is indeed below the significance level, and the latter indicates the tests' power in making real discoveries. Methods: We evaluate the Mann-Whitney U test, Student's t-test, chi-squared test and median test on DP-synthetic data. The private synthetic datasets are generated from real-world data, including a prostate cancer dataset (n=500) and a cardiovascular dataset (n=70 000), as well as on bivariate and multivariate simulated data. Five different DP-synthetic data generation methods are evaluated, including two basic DP histogram release methods and MWEM, Private-PGM, and DP GAN algorithms. Conclusion: A large portion of the evaluation results expressed dramatically inflated Type I errors, especially at privacy budget levels of $ε\leq 1$. This result calls for caution when releasing and analyzing DP-synthetic data: low p-values may be obtained in statistical tests simply as a byproduct of the noise added to protect privacy. A DP smoothed histogram-based synthetic data generation method was shown to produce valid Type I error for all privacy levels tested but required a large original dataset size and a modest privacy budget ($ε\geq 5$) in order to have reasonable Type II error.

Ileana Montoya Perez, Antti Airola, Peter J. Boström et al.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is widely used for evaluating diagnostic systems. Recent studies have shown that estimating an area under ROC curve (AUC) with standard cross-validation methods suffers from a large bias. The leave-pair-out (LPO) cross-validation has been shown to correct this bias. However, while LPO produces an almost unbiased estimate of AUC, it does not provide a ranking of the data needed for plotting and analyzing the ROC curve. In this study, we propose a new method called tournament leave-pair-out (TLPO) cross-validation. This method extends LPO by creating a tournament from pair comparisons to produce a ranking for the data. TLPO preserves the advantage of LPO for estimating AUC, while it also allows performing ROC analyses. We have shown using both synthetic and real world data that TLPO is as reliable as LPO for AUC estimation, and confirmed the bias in leave-one-out cross-validation on low-dimensional data. As a case study on ROC analysis, we also evaluate how reliably sensitivity and specificity can be estimated from TLPO ROC curves.