Herbert Lee

Rui Meng, Braden Soper, Herbert Lee et al.

We propose multivariate nonstationary Gaussian processes for jointly modeling multiple clinical variables, where the key parameters, length-scales, standard deviations and the correlations between the observed output, are all time dependent. We perform posterior inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also provide methods for obtaining computationally efficient gradient-based maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates. We validate our model on synthetic data as well as on electronic health records (EHR) data from Kaiser Permanente (KP). We show that the proposed model provides better predictive performance over a stationary model as well as uncovers interesting latent correlation processes across vitals which are potentially predictive of patient risk.

Rui Meng, Soper Braden, Jan Nygard et al.

Hidden Markov jump processes are an attractive approach for modeling clinical disease progression data because they are explainable and capable of handling both irregularly sampled and noisy data. Most applications in this context consider time-homogeneous models due to their relative computational simplicity. However, the time homogeneous assumption is too strong to accurately model the natural history of many diseases. Moreover, the population at risk is not homogeneous either, since disease exposure and susceptibility can vary considerably. In this paper, we propose a piece-wise stationary transition matrix to explain the heterogeneity in time. We propose a hierarchical structure for the heterogeneity in population, where prior information is considered to deal with unbalanced data. Moreover, an efficient, scalable EM algorithm is proposed for inference. We demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of our model on a cervical cancer screening dataset from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Experiments show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art recurrent neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy and significantly outperforms a standard hidden Markov jump process in generating Kaplan-Meier estimators.

Rui Meng, Herbert Lee, Soper Braden et al.

Gaussian processes are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric modelling approach that has been widely applied but poses computational challenges. To address the poor scaling of exact inference methods, approximation methods based on sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) are attractive. An issue faced by SGP, especially in latent variable models, is the inefficient learning of the inducing inputs, which leads to poor model prediction. We propose a regularization approach by balancing the reconstruction performance of data and the approximation performance of the model itself. This regularization improves both inference and prediction performance. We extend this regularization approach into latent variable models with SGPs and show that performing variational inference (VI) on those models is equivalent to performing VI on a related empirical Bayes model.