Christoph Hoelscher

2papers

2 Papers

18.1LGMay 8
Does Your Neural Network Extrapolate? Feature Engineering as Identifiability Bias for OOD Generalization

Leonel Aguilar, Jan Nagler, Christoph Hoelscher et al.

Successful deep neural networks discover salient features of data. We show when and why they fail to learn out-of-distribution (OOD)-relevant representations from an in-distribution (ID) training window. This requires decoupling feature learning from data-generating-process (DGP) identifiability. From a single training window, OOD extrapolation is non-identifiable: infinitely many DGPs are $\varepsilon$-observationally equivalent on the training data but diverge arbitrarily outside it, and no in-distribution criterion alone reliably breaks the tie. A structural commitment, the feature map, label map, and model class $(φ, ψ, \mathcal{M})$, dictates the assumed DGP and governs OOD generalization while leaving ID performance essentially unchanged. When architecture, pretraining, augmentation, input formats, or domain knowledge implicitly inject the missing commitment, the model succeeds. When it cannot infer OOD-relevant structure from ID evidence, it fails. Changing only the representation can make the same architecture, at the same in-distribution loss, differ by ${\sim}520\times$ out of distribution. When the commitment is correct and identifiable, OOD error vanishes. For example, Fourier coordinates turn periodic extrapolation into interpolation on $\mathbb{S}^1$. The same mechanism predicts outcomes in three natural-science settings (mass-action chemistry; Kepler's-third-law exoplanet prediction, $n=2{,}362$; and cross-species coding-DNA detection) and in a 264-run positional-encoding study across Transformer, Mamba, and S4D. Finally, a controlled study shows: correct features are necessary but not sufficient. The model class must express the target, and the transformed training data must cover the relevant representation space.

MAOct 2, 2019
Cognitive Agent Based Simulation Model For Improving Disaster Response Procedures

Rohit K. Dubey, Samuel S. Sohn, Christoph Hoelscher et al.

In the event of a disaster, saving human lives is of utmost importance. For developing proper evacuation procedures and guidance systems, behavioural data on how people respond during panic and stress is crucial. In the absence of real human data on building evacuation, there is a need for a crowd simulator to model egress and decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, we propose an agent-based simulation tool, which is grounded in human cognition and decision-making, for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of building evacuation procedures and guidance systems during a disaster. Specifically, we propose a predictive agent-wayfinding framework based on information theory that is applied at intersections with variable route choices where it fuses N dynamic information sources. The proposed framework can be used to visualize trajectories and prediction results (i.e., total evacuation time, number of people evacuated) for different combinations of reinforcing or contradicting information sources (i.e., signage, crowd flow, familiarity, and spatial layout). This tool can enable designers to recreate various disaster scenarios and generate simulation data for improving the evacuation procedures and existing guidance systems.