Nathan Ng

Juhan Bae, Nathan Ng, Alston Lo et al. · utoronto

Influence functions efficiently estimate the effect of removing a single training data point on a model's learned parameters. While influence estimates align well with leave-one-out retraining for linear models, recent works have shown this alignment is often poor in neural networks. In this work, we investigate the specific factors that cause this discrepancy by decomposing it into five separate terms. We study the contributions of each term on a variety of architectures and datasets and how they vary with factors such as network width and training time. While practical influence function estimates may be a poor match to leave-one-out retraining for nonlinear networks, we show they are often a good approximation to a different object we term the proximal Bregman response function (PBRF). Since the PBRF can still be used to answer many of the questions motivating influence functions, such as identifying influential or mislabeled examples, our results suggest that current algorithms for influence function estimation give more informative results than previous error analyses would suggest.

Nathan Ng, Neha Hulkund, Kyunghyun Cho et al.

Developing and deploying machine learning models safely depends on the ability to characterize and compare their abilities to generalize to new environments. Although recent work has proposed a variety of methods that can directly predict or theoretically bound the generalization capacity of a model, they rely on strong assumptions such as matching train/test distributions and access to model gradients. In order to characterize generalization when these assumptions are not satisfied, we propose neighborhood invariance, a measure of a classifier's output invariance in a local transformation neighborhood. Specifically, we sample a set of transformations and given an input test point, calculate the invariance as the largest fraction of transformed points classified into the same class. Crucially, our measure is simple to calculate, does not depend on the test point's true label, makes no assumptions about the data distribution or model, and can be applied even in out-of-domain (OOD) settings where existing methods cannot, requiring only selecting a set of appropriate data transformations. In experiments on robustness benchmarks in image classification, sentiment analysis, and natural language inference, we demonstrate a strong and robust correlation between our neighborhood invariance measure and actual OOD generalization on over 4,600 models evaluated on over 100 unique train/test domain pairs.

Nathan Ng, Roger Grosse, Marzyeh Ghassemi

Estimating the uncertainty of a model's prediction on a test point is a crucial part of ensuring reliability and calibration under distribution shifts. A minimum description length approach to this problem uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) distribution, which considers every possible label for a data point, and decreases confidence in a prediction if other labels are also consistent with the model and training data. In this work we propose IF-COMP, a scalable and efficient approximation of the pNML distribution that linearizes the model with a temperature-scaled Boltzmann influence function. IF-COMP can be used to produce well-calibrated predictions on test points as well as measure complexity in both labelled and unlabelled settings. We experimentally validate IF-COMP on uncertainty calibration, mislabel detection, and OOD detection tasks, where it consistently matches or beats strong baseline methods.

Kyra Yee, Nathan Ng, Yann N. Dauphin et al.

Previous work on neural noisy channel modeling relied on latent variable models that incrementally process the source and target sentence. This makes decoding decisions based on partial source prefixes even though the full source is available. We pursue an alternative approach based on standard sequence to sequence models which utilize the entire source. These models perform remarkably well as channel models, even though they have neither been trained on, nor designed to factor over incomplete target sentences. Experiments with neural language models trained on billions of words show that noisy channel models can outperform a direct model by up to 3.2 BLEU on WMT'17 German-English translation. We evaluate on four language-pairs and our channel models consistently outperform strong alternatives such right-to-left reranking models and ensembles of direct models.

Nathan Ng, Kyra Yee, Alexei Baevski et al.

This paper describes Facebook FAIR's submission to the WMT19 shared news translation task. We participate in two language pairs and four language directions, English <-> German and English <-> Russian. Following our submission from last year, our baseline systems are large BPE-based transformer models trained with the Fairseq sequence modeling toolkit which rely on sampled back-translations. This year we experiment with different bitext data filtering schemes, as well as with adding filtered back-translated data. We also ensemble and fine-tune our models on domain-specific data, then decode using noisy channel model reranking. Our submissions are ranked first in all four directions of the human evaluation campaign. On En->De, our system significantly outperforms other systems as well as human translations. This system improves upon our WMT'18 submission by 4.5 BLEU points.