Dimitra Apostolopoulou

Constance Crozier, Dimitra Apostolopoulou, Malcolm McCulloch

Accurately predicting the future power demand of electric vehicles is important for developing policy and industrial strategy. Here we propose a method to create a representative set of electricity demand profiles using survey data from conventional vehicles. This is achieved by developing a model which maps journey and vehicle parameters to an energy consumption, and applying it individually to the entire data set. As a case study the National Travel Survey was used to create a set of profiles representing an entirely electric UK fleet of vehicles. This allowed prediction of the required electricity demand and sizing of the necessary vehicle batteries. Also, by inferring location information from the data, the effectiveness of various charging strategies was assessed. These results will be useful in both National planning, and as the inputs to further research on the impact of electric vehicles.

Matthew Deakin, Thomas Morstyn, Dimitra Apostolopoulou et al.

Reactive power has been proposed as a method of voltage control for distribution networks, providing a means of increasing the amount of energy transferred from distributed generators to the bulk transmission network. The value of reactive power can therefore be measured according to an increase in transferred energy, where the transferred energy is defined as the total generated energy, less the total network losses. If network losses are ignored, an error in the valuation of a given amount of reactive power will be observed (leading to reactive power provision being under- or over-valued). The non-linear analytic solution of a two-bus network is studied, and non-trivial upper and lower bounds are determined for this `valuation error'. The properties predicted by this two-bus network are demonstrated to hold on a three-phase unbalanced distribution test feeder with good accuracy. This allows for an analytic assessment of the importance of losses in the valuation of reactive power in arbitrary networks.

Matthew Deakin, Thomas Morstyn, Dimitra Apostolopoulou et al.

In this paper, the power flow solution of the two bus network is used to analytically characterise maximum power transfer limits of distribution networks, when subject to both thermal and voltage constraints. Traditional analytic methods are shown to reach contradictory conclusions on the suitability of reactive power for increasing power transfer. Therefore, a more rigorous analysis is undertaken, yielding two solutions, both fully characterised by losses. The first is the well-known thermal limit. The second we define as the `marginal loss-induced maximum power transfer limit'. This is a point at which the marginal increases in losses are greater than increases in generated power. The solution is parametrised in terms of the ratio of resistive to reactive impedance, and yields the reactive power required. The accuracy and existence of these solutions are investigated using the IEEE 34 bus distribution test feeder, and show good agreement with the two bus approximation. The work has implications for the analysis of reactive power interventions in distribution networks, and for the optimal sizing of distributed generation.

Azad Deihim, Eduardo Alonso, Dimitra Apostolopoulou

We present the Multi-Agent Transformer World Model (MATWM), a novel transformer-based world model designed for multi-agent reinforcement learning in both vector- and image-based environments. MATWM combines a decentralized imagination framework with a semi-centralized critic and a teammate prediction module, enabling agents to model and anticipate the behavior of others under partial observability. To address non-stationarity, we incorporate a prioritized replay mechanism that trains the world model on recent experiences, allowing it to adapt to agents' evolving policies. We evaluated MATWM on a broad suite of benchmarks, including the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge, PettingZoo, and MeltingPot. MATWM achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming both model-free and prior world model approaches, while demonstrating strong sample efficiency, achieving near-optimal performance in as few as 50K environment interactions. Ablation studies confirm the impact of each component, with substantial gains in coordination-heavy tasks.

Fatemeh Najibi, Dimitra Apostolopoulou, Eduardo Alonso

With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate forecasting mechanisms that address their inherent intermittency and variability. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to predict short-term PV output taking into account the uncertainty of weather. To this end, we make use of datasets that comprise of power output and meteorological data such as irradiance, temperature, zenith, and azimuth. First, we categorise the data into four groups based on solar output and time by using k-means clustering. Next, a correlation study is performed to choose the weather features which affect solar output to a greater extent. Finally, we determine a function that relates the aforementioned selected features with solar output by using Gaussian Process Regression and Matern 5/2 as a kernel function. We validate our method with five solar generation plants in different locations and compare the results with existing methodologies. More specifically, in order to test the proposed model, two different methods are used: (i) 5-fold cross-validation; and (ii) holding out 30 random days as test data. To confirm the model accuracy, we apply our framework 30 independent times on each of the four clusters. The average error follows a normal distribution, and with 95% confidence level, it takes values between -1.6% to 1.4%.