We consider the problem of estimating social influence, the effect that a person's behavior has on the future behavior of their peers. The key challenge is that shared behavior between friends could be equally explained by influence or by two other confounding factors: 1) latent traits that caused people to both become friends and engage in the behavior, and 2) latent preferences for the behavior. This paper addresses the challenges of estimating social influence with three contributions. First, we formalize social influence as a causal effect, one which requires inferences about hypothetical interventions. Second, we develop Poisson Influence Factorization (PIF), a method for estimating social influence from observational data. PIF fits probabilistic factor models to networks and behavior data to infer variables that serve as substitutes for the confounding latent traits. Third, we develop assumptions under which PIF recovers estimates of social influence. We empirically study PIF with semi-synthetic and real data from Last.fm, and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We find that PIF estimates social influence most accurately compared to related methods and remains robust under some violations of its assumptions.
Andrea Della Vecchia, Kibidi Neocosmos, Daniel B. Larremore et al.
We present a physics-inspired method for inferring dynamic rankings in directed temporal networks - networks in which each directed and timestamped edge reflects the outcome and timing of a pairwise interaction. The inferred ranking of each node is real-valued and varies in time as each new edge, encoding an outcome like a win or loss, raises or lowers the node's estimated strength or prestige, as is often observed in real scenarios including sequences of games, tournaments, or interactions in animal hierarchies. Our method works by solving a linear system of equations and requires only one parameter to be tuned. As a result, the corresponding algorithm is scalable and efficient. We test our method by evaluating its ability to predict interactions (edges' existence) and their outcomes (edges' directions) in a variety of applications, including both synthetic and real data. Our analysis shows that in many cases our method's performance is better than existing methods for predicting dynamic rankings and interaction outcomes.
Alessandro Lonardi, Diego Baptista, Caterina De Bacco
In classification tasks, it is crucial to meaningfully exploit the information contained in data. While much of the work in addressing these tasks is devoted to building complex algorithmic infrastructures to process inputs in a black-box fashion, less is known about how to exploit the various facets of the data, before inputting this into an algorithm. Here, we focus on this latter perspective, by proposing a physics-inspired dynamical system that adapts Optimal Transport principles to effectively leverage color distributions of images. Our dynamics regulates immiscible fluxes of colors traveling on a network built from images. Instead of aggregating colors together, it treats them as different commodities that interact with a shared capacity on edges. The resulting optimal flows can then be fed into standard classifiers to distinguish images in different classes. We show how our method can outperform competing approaches on image classification tasks in datasets where color information matters.
Graphs are a powerful data structure for representing relational data and are widely used to describe complex real-world systems. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can both leverage graph-structured data, but their inherent functioning is different. The question is how do they compare in capturing the information contained in networked datasets? We address this objective by solving a link prediction task and we conduct three main experiments, on both synthetic and real networks: one focuses on how PGMs and GNNs handle input features, while the other two investigate their robustness to noisy features and increasing heterophily of the graph. PGMs do not necessarily require features on nodes, while GNNs cannot exploit the network edges alone, and the choice of input features matters. We find that GNNs are outperformed by PGMs when input features are low-dimensional or noisy, mimicking many real scenarios where node attributes might be scalar or noisy. Then, we find that PGMs are more robust than GNNs when the heterophily of the graph is increased. Finally, to assess performance beyond prediction tasks, we also compare the two frameworks in terms of their computational complexity and interpretability.
Community detection and hierarchy extraction are usually thought of as separate inference tasks on networks. Considering only one of the two when studying real-world data can be an oversimplification. In this work, we present a generative model based on an interplay between community and hierarchical structures. It assumes that each node has a preference in the interaction mechanism and nodes with the same preference are more likely to interact, while heterogeneous interactions are still allowed. The sparsity of the network is exploited for implementing a more efficient algorithm. We demonstrate our method on synthetic and real-world data and compare performance with two standard approaches for community detection and ranking extraction. We find that the algorithm accurately retrieves the overall node's preference in different scenarios, and we show that it can distinguish small subsets of nodes that behave differently than the majority. As a consequence, the model can recognize whether a network has an overall preferred interaction mechanism. This is relevant in situations where there is no clear "a priori" information about what structure explains the observed network datasets well. Our model allows practitioners to learn this automatically from the data.
Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim, Alessandro Lonardi, Caterina De Bacco
Modeling traffic distribution and extracting optimal flows in multilayer networks is of utmost importance to design efficient multi-modal network infrastructures. Recent results based on optimal transport theory provide powerful and computationally efficient methods to address this problem, but they are mainly focused on modeling single-layer networks. Here we adapt these results to study how optimal flows distribute on multilayer networks. We propose a model where optimal flows on different layers contribute differently to the total cost to be minimized. This is done by means of a parameter that varies with layers, which allows to flexibly tune the sensitivity to traffic congestion of the various layers. As an application, we consider transportation networks, where each layer is associated to a different transportation system and show how the traffic distribution varies as we tune this parameter across layers. We show an example of this result on the real 2-layer network of the city of Bordeaux with bus and tram, where we find that in certain regimes the presence of the tram network significantly unburdens the traffic on the road network. Our model paves the way to further analysis of optimal flows and navigability strategies in real multilayer networks.
Caterina De Bacco, Daniel B. Larremore, Cristopher Moore
We present a physically-inspired model and an efficient algorithm to infer hierarchical rankings of nodes in directed networks. It assigns real-valued ranks to nodes rather than simply ordinal ranks, and it formalizes the assumption that interactions are more likely to occur between individuals with similar ranks. It provides a natural statistical significance test for the inferred hierarchy, and it can be used to perform inference tasks such as predicting the existence or direction of edges. The ranking is obtained by solving a linear system of equations, which is sparse if the network is; thus the resulting algorithm is extremely efficient and scalable. We illustrate these findings by analyzing real and synthetic data, including datasets from animal behavior, faculty hiring, social support networks, and sports tournaments. We show that our method often outperforms a variety of others, in both speed and accuracy, in recovering the underlying ranks and predicting edge directions.