Maximilian Granz

Leon Sixt, Maximilian Granz, Tim Landgraf

Attribution methods aim to explain a neural network's prediction by highlighting the most relevant image areas. A popular approach is to backpropagate (BP) a custom relevance score using modified rules, rather than the gradient. We analyze an extensive set of modified BP methods: Deep Taylor Decomposition, Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP), Excitation BP, PatternAttribution, DeepLIFT, Deconv, RectGrad, and Guided BP. We find empirically that the explanations of all mentioned methods, except for DeepLIFT, are independent of the parameters of later layers. We provide theoretical insights for this surprising behavior and also analyze why DeepLIFT does not suffer from this limitation. Empirically, we measure how information of later layers is ignored by using our new metric, cosine similarity convergence (CSC). The paper provides a framework to assess the faithfulness of new and existing modified BP methods theoretically and empirically. For code see: https://github.com/berleon/when-explanations-lie

Manuel Heurich, Maximilian Granz, Tim Landgraf

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification for time series forecasting show that conformal prediction can provide reliable prediction intervals, yet standard conformal methods are often inefficient under temporal dependence, drift, and heterogeneous error behavior. Existing methods typically either update miscoverage rates over time or learn unconstrained calibration weights, without explicitly separating two central sources of nonstationarity: smoothly drifting error distributions and co-existing distinct error regimes. We introduce RareCP, a regime-aware retrieval method for adaptive conformal time series prediction. RareCP learns local calibration representations through a mixture of cosine-attention experts that each capture distinct error regimes, while a compact hypernetwork adapts the kernel parameters to track temporal drift. Given a new forecasting context, RareCP retrieves the top-k most relevant calibration examples, assigns similarity weights, and forms a weighted conformal quantile over their signed residuals, yielding asymmetric prediction intervals. The adaptive kernel is trained using a smooth interval score objective, with a parameter-space anchor to a lightweight teacher kernel to preserve stable local representations. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, RareCP improves interval efficiency over recent conformal baselines and foundation model uncertainty estimates while maintaining empirical coverage. Ablations confirm that regime-specific experts, drift-adaptive kernels, sparse retrieval, and teacher anchoring each contribute to the final performance.