Vrettos Moulos

Vrettos Moulos

We study an extension of the classic stochastic multi-armed bandit problem which involves multiple plays and Markovian rewards in the rested bandits setting. In order to tackle this problem we consider an adaptive allocation rule which at each stage combines the information from the sample means of all the arms, with the Kullback-Leibler upper confidence bound of a single arm which is selected in round-robin way. For rewards generated from a one-parameter exponential family of Markov chains, we provide a finite-time upper bound for the regret incurred from this adaptive allocation rule, which reveals the logarithmic dependence of the regret on the time horizon, and which is asymptotically optimal. For our analysis we devise several concentration results for Markov chains, including a maximal inequality for Markov chains, that may be of interest in their own right. As a byproduct of our analysis we also establish asymptotically optimal, finite-time guarantees for the case of multiple plays, and i.i.d. rewards drawn from a one-parameter exponential family of probability densities. Additionally, we provide simulation results that illustrate that calculating Kullback-Leibler upper confidence bounds in a round-robin way, is significantly more efficient than calculating them for every arm at each round, and that the expected regrets of those two approaches behave similarly.

Vrettos Moulos

This paper develops a Hoeffding inequality for the partial sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$, where $\{X_k\}_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{> 0}}$ is an irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space $S$, and $f : S \to [a, b]$ is a real-valued function. Our bound is simple, general, since it only assumes irreducibility and finiteness of the state space, and powerful. In order to demonstrate its usefulness we provide two applications in multi-armed bandit problems. The first is about identifying an approximately best Markovian arm, while the second is concerned with regret minimization in the context of Markovian bandits.

Vrettos Moulos

We give a complete characterization of the sampling complexity of best Markovian arm identification in one-parameter Markovian bandit models. We derive instance specific nonasymptotic and asymptotic lower bounds which generalize those of the IID setting. We analyze the Track-and-Stop strategy, initially proposed for the IID setting, and we prove that asymptotically it is at most a factor of four apart from the lower bound. Our one-parameter Markovian bandit model is based on the notion of an exponential family of stochastic matrices for which we establish many useful properties. For the analysis of the Track-and-Stop strategy we derive a novel concentration inequality for Markov chains that may be of interest in its own right.