Mucun Tian

2papers

2 Papers

IRJul 19, 2020
Counterfactual Learning to Rank using Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation

Mucun Tian, Chun Guo, Vito Ostuni et al.

Learning-to-Rank (LTR) models trained from implicit feedback (e.g. clicks) suffer from inherent biases. A well-known one is the position bias -- documents in top positions are more likely to receive clicks due in part to their position advantages. To unbiasedly learn to rank, existing counterfactual frameworks first estimate the propensity (probability) of missing clicks with intervention data from a small portion of search traffic, and then use inverse propensity score (IPS) to debias LTR algorithms on the whole data set. These approaches often assume the propensity only depends on the position of the document, which may cause high estimation variance in applications where the search context (e.g. query, user) varies frequently. While context-dependent propensity models reduce variance, accurate estimations may require randomization or intervention on a large amount of traffic, which may not be realistic in real-world systems, especially for long tail queries. In this work, we employ heterogeneous treatment effect estimation techniques to estimate position bias when intervention click data is limited. We then use such estimations to debias the observed click distribution and re-draw a new de-biased data set, which can be used for any LTR algorithms. We conduct simulations with varying experiment conditions and show the effectiveness of the proposed method in regimes with long tail queries and sparse clicks.

IRJan 26, 2020
Estimating Error and Bias in Offline Evaluation Results

Mucun Tian, Michael D. Ekstrand

Offline evaluations of recommender systems attempt to estimate users' satisfaction with recommendations using static data from prior user interactions. These evaluations provide researchers and developers with first approximations of the likely performance of a new system and help weed out bad ideas before presenting them to users. However, offline evaluation cannot accurately assess novel, relevant recommendations, because the most novel items were previously unknown to the user, so they are missing from the historical data and cannot be judged as relevant. We present a simulation study to estimate the error that such missing data causes in commonly-used evaluation metrics in order to assess its prevalence and impact. We find that missing data in the rating or observation process causes the evaluation protocol to systematically mis-estimate metric values, and in some cases erroneously determine that a popularity-based recommender outperforms even a perfect personalized recommender. Substantial breakthroughs in recommendation quality, therefore, will be difficult to assess with existing offline techniques.