Alberto Corigliano

Francesco Maria Mancinelli, Matteo Torzoni, Domenico Maisto et al.

Active Inference is an emerging framework providing a quantitative account of behavioral processes in neuroscience and a principled approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Its application to agency problems is natural, offering an autopoietic interpretation of action while addressing classical challenges such as the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Recently, Active Inference has been applied to digital twin scenarios for adaptive and predictive modeling of complex systems. In this work, we extend Active Inference to multi-agent digital twins in which agents interact within a shared environment while maintaining decentralized generative models. Our multi-agent framework features two innovations: (i) contextual inference to improve adaptability in dynamic environments, and (ii) the integration of streaming machine learning within agents' generative structures, enabling tunable goal-oriented behavior while preserving efficiency and scalability. The framework is illustrated through a Cournot competition example, providing a digital twin representation of a socio-economic system and highlighting its potential for coordinated decision-making in multi-agent contexts.

Matteo Torzoni, Domenico Maisto, Andrea Manzoni et al.

Digital twins are transforming engineering and applied sciences by enabling real-time monitoring, simulation, and predictive analysis of physical systems and processes. However, conventional digital twins rely primarily on passive data assimilation, which limits their adaptability in uncertain and dynamic environments. This paper introduces the active digital twin paradigm, based on active inference. Active inference is a neuroscience-inspired Bayesian framework for probabilistic reasoning and predictive modeling that unifies inference, decision-making, and learning under a single free energy minimization objective. By modeling the dynamics of the coupled physical--digital system as a partially observable Markov decision process, active digital twins autonomously balance pragmatic exploitation (maximizing goal-directed utility) and epistemic exploration (actively resolving uncertainty). As action becomes an integral part of the inference process, active digital twins actively seek information to maintain synchronization with, and learn from their physical counterparts. The proposed framework is assessed through virtual experiments of structural health monitoring and predictive maintenance of a railway bridge. The application showcases the step-by-step construction of a generative model enabling bidirectional perception--action interaction. The results demonstrate that active digital twins exhibit superior exploration capabilities compared to traditional reactive approaches, enabling enhanced autonomy and resilience.

Luca Rosafalco, Matteo Torzoni, Andrea Manzoni et al.

Within a structural health monitoring (SHM) framework, we propose a simulation-based classification strategy to move towards online damage localization. The procedure combines parametric Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques and Fully Convolutional Networks (FCNs) to analyze raw vibration measurements recorded on the monitored structure. First, a dataset of possible structural responses under varying operational conditions is built through a physics-based model, allowing for a finite set of predefined damage scenarios. Then, the dataset is used for the offline training of the FCN. Because of the extremely large number of model evaluations required by the dataset construction, MOR techniques are employed to reduce the computational burden. The trained classifier is shown to be able to map unseen vibrational recordings, e.g. collected on-the-fly from sensors placed on the structure, to the actual damage state, thus providing information concerning the presence and also the location of damage. The proposed strategy has been validated by means of two case studies, concerning a 2D portal frame and a 3D portal frame railway bridge; MOR techniques have allowed us to respectively speed up the analyses about 30 and 420 times. For both the case studies, after training the classifier has attained an accuracy greater than 85%.

Luca Rosafalco, Andrea Manzoni, Stefano Mariani et al.

We propose a novel approach to Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), aiming at the automatic identification of damage-sensitive features from data acquired through pervasive sensor systems. Damage detection and localization are formulated as classification problems, and tackled through Fully Convolutional Networks (FCNs). A supervised training of the proposed network architecture is performed on data extracted from numerical simulations of a physics-based model (playing the role of digital twin of the structure to be monitored) accounting for different damage scenarios. By relying on this simplified model of the structure, several load conditions are considered during the training phase of the FCN, whose architecture has been designed to deal with time series of different length. The training of the neural network is done before the monitoring system starts operating, thus enabling a real time damage classification. The numerical performances of the proposed strategy are assessed on a numerical benchmark case consisting of an eight-story shear building subjected to two load types, one of which modeling random vibrations due to low-energy seismicity. Measurement noise has been added to the responses of the structure to mimic the outputs of a real monitoring system. Extremely good classification capacities are shown: among the nine possible alternatives (represented by the healthy state and by a damage at any floor), damage is correctly classified in up to 95% of cases, thus showing the strong potential of the proposed approach in view of the application to real-life cases.