Aneesh C. Subramanian

Nidhin Harilal, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Aneesh Subramanian et al.

Supervised and unsupervised techniques have demonstrated the potential for temporal interpolation of video data. Nevertheless, most prevailing temporal interpolation techniques hinge on optical flow, which encodes the motion of pixels between video frames. On the other hand, geospatial data exhibits lower temporal resolution while encompassing a spectrum of movements and deformations that challenge several assumptions inherent to optical flow. In this work, we propose an unsupervised temporal interpolation technique, which does not rely on ground truth data or require any motion information like optical flow, thus offering a promising alternative for better generalization across geospatial domains. Specifically, we introduce a self-supervised technique of dual cycle consistency. Our proposed technique incorporates multiple cycle consistency losses, which result from interpolating two frames between consecutive input frames through a series of stages. This dual cycle consistent constraint causes the model to produce intermediate frames in a self-supervised manner. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at unsupervised temporal interpolation without the explicit use of optical flow. Our experimental evaluations across diverse geospatial datasets show that STint significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for unsupervised temporal interpolation.

Subhankar Ghosh, Shuai An, Arun Sharma et al.

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or deep learning to combine different climate projections. Such approaches are inadequate when different regions require different weighting schemes for accurate and reliable sea-level rise predictions. This paper proposes a zonal regression model which addresses spatial variability and model inter-dependency. Experimental results show more reliable predictions using the weights learned via this approach on a regional scale.

Subhankar Ghosh, Arun Sharma, Jayant Gupta et al.

Given coarser-resolution projections from global climate models or satellite data, the downscaling problem aims to estimate finer-resolution regional climate data, capturing fine-scale spatial patterns and variability. Downscaling is any method to derive high-resolution data from low-resolution variables, often to provide more detailed and local predictions and analyses. This problem is societally crucial for effective adaptation, mitigation, and resilience against significant risks from climate change. The challenge arises from spatial heterogeneity and the need to recover finer-scale features while ensuring model generalization. Most downscaling methods \cite{Li2020} fail to capture the spatial dependencies at finer scales and underperform on real-world climate datasets, such as sea-level rise. We propose a novel Kriging-informed Conditional Diffusion Probabilistic Model (Ki-CDPM) to capture spatial variability while preserving fine-scale features. Experimental results on climate data show that our proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art downscaling techniques.

Elizabeth G. Campolongo, Yuan-Tang Chou, Ekaterina Govorkova et al.

Scientific discoveries are often made by finding a pattern or object that was not predicted by the known rules of science. Oftentimes, these anomalous events or objects that do not conform to the norms are an indication that the rules of science governing the data are incomplete, and something new needs to be present to explain these unexpected outliers. The challenge of finding anomalies can be confounding since it requires codifying a complete knowledge of the known scientific behaviors and then projecting these known behaviors on the data to look for deviations. When utilizing machine learning, this presents a particular challenge since we require that the model not only understands scientific data perfectly but also recognizes when the data is inconsistent and out of the scope of its trained behavior. In this paper, we present three datasets aimed at developing machine learning-based anomaly detection for disparate scientific domains covering astrophysics, genomics, and polar science. We present the different datasets along with a scheme to make machine learning challenges around the three datasets findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). Furthermore, we present an approach that generalizes to future machine learning challenges, enabling the possibility of large, more compute-intensive challenges that can ultimately lead to scientific discovery.

Emam Hossain, Muhammad Hasan Ferdous, Jianwu Wang et al.

Traditional machine learning and deep learning techniques rely on correlation-based learning, often failing to distinguish spurious associations from true causal relationships, which limits robustness, interpretability, and generalizability. To address these challenges, we propose a causality-driven deep learning framework that integrates Multivariate Granger Causality (MVGC) and PCMCI+ causal discovery algorithms with a hybrid deep learning architecture. Using 43 years (1979-2021) of daily and monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) and ocean-atmospheric datasets, our approach identifies causally significant factors, prioritizes features with direct influence, reduces feature overhead, and improves computational efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that integrating causal features enhances the deep learning model's predictive accuracy and interpretability across multiple lead times. Beyond SIE prediction, the proposed framework offers a scalable solution for dynamic, high-dimensional systems, advancing both theoretical understanding and practical applications in predictive modeling.

Lucas Howard, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Gregory Thompson et al.

The continuous improvement in weather forecast skill over the past several decades is largely due to the increasing quantity of available satellite observations and their assimilation into operational forecast systems. Assimilating these observations requires observation operators in the form of radiative transfer models. Significant efforts have been dedicated to enhancing the computational efficiency of these models. Computational cost remains a bottleneck, and a large fraction of available data goes unused for assimilation. To address this, we used machine learning to build an efficient neural network based probabilistic emulator of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), applied to the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager. The trained NN emulator predicts brightness temperatures output by CRTM and the corresponding error with respect to CRTM. RMSE of the predicted brightness temperature is 0.3 K averaged across all channels. For clear sky conditions, the RMSE is less than 0.1 K for 9 out of 10 infrared channels. The error predictions are generally reliable across a wide range of conditions. Explainable AI methods demonstrate that the trained emulator reproduces the relevant physics, increasing confidence that the model will perform well when presented with new data.

Emam Hossain, Muhammad Hasan Ferdous, Devon Dunmire et al.

Causal modeling offers a principled foundation for uncovering stable, invariant relationships in time-series data, thereby improving robustness and generalization under distribution shifts. Yet its potential is underutilized in spatiotemporal Earth observation, where models often depend on purely correlational features that fail to transfer across heterogeneous domains. We propose RIC-TSC, a regionally-informed causal time-series classification framework that embeds lag-aware causal discovery directly into sequence modeling, enabling both predictive accuracy and scientific interpretability. Using multi-modal satellite and reanalysis data-including Sentinel-1 microwave backscatter, Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 optical reflectance, and CARRA meteorological variables-we leverage Joint PCMCI+ (J-PCMCI+) to identify region-specific and invariant predictors of supraglacial lake evolution in Greenland. Causal graphs are estimated globally and per basin, with validated predictors and their time lags supplied to lightweight classifiers. On a balanced benchmark of 1000 manually labeled lakes from two contrasting melt seasons (2018-2019), causal models achieve up to 12.59% higher accuracy than correlation-based baselines under out-of-distribution evaluation. These results show that causal discovery is not only a means of feature selection but also a pathway to generalizable and mechanistically grounded models of dynamic Earth surface processes.

Jiarong Wu, Pavel Perezhogin, David John Gagne et al.

Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea fluxes, which is missing in deterministic bulk algorithms. Assuming Gaussian distributions conditioned on the input variables, we use artificial neural networks and eddy-covariance measurement data to estimate the mean and variance by minimizing negative log-likelihood loss. The trained neural networks provide alternative mean flux estimates to existing bulk algorithms, and quantify the uncertainty around the mean estimates. Stochastic parameterization of air-sea turbulent fluxes can be constructed by sampling from the predicted distributions. Tests in a single-column forced upper-ocean model suggest that changes in flux algorithms influence sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth seasonally. The ensemble spread in stochastic runs is most pronounced during spring restratification.

David John Gagne, Hannah M. Christensen, Aneesh C. Subramanian et al.

Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant structural assumptions that can limit their scalability. Machine learning models, including neural networks, are able to represent a wide range of distributions and build optimized mappings between a large number of inputs and sub-grid forcings. Recent research on machine learning parameterizations has focused only on deterministic parameterizations. In this study, we develop a stochastic parameterization using the generative adversarial network (GAN) machine learning framework. The GAN stochastic parameterization is trained and evaluated on output from the Lorenz '96 model, which is a common baseline model for evaluating both parameterization and data assimilation techniques. We evaluate different ways of characterizing the input noise for the model and perform model runs with the GAN parameterization at weather and climate timescales. Some of the GAN configurations perform better than a baseline bespoke parameterization at both timescales, and the networks closely reproduce the spatio-temporal correlations and regimes of the Lorenz '96 system. We also find that in general those models which produce skillful forecasts are also associated with the best climate simulations.