Predicting the next visited location of an individual is a key problem in human mobility analysis, as it is required for the personalization and optimization of sustainable transport options. Here, we propose a transformer decoder-based neural network to predict the next location an individual will visit based on historical locations, time, and travel modes, which are behaviour dimensions often overlooked in previous work. In particular, the prediction of the next travel mode is designed as an auxiliary task to help guide the network's learning. For evaluation, we apply this approach to two large-scale and long-term GPS tracking datasets involving more than 600 individuals. Our experiments show that the proposed method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art next location prediction methods by a large margin (8.05% and 5.60% relative increase in F1-score for the two datasets, respectively). We conduct an extensive ablation study that quantifies the influence of considering temporal features, travel mode information, and the auxiliary task on the prediction results. Moreover, we experimentally determine the performance upper bound when including the next mode prediction in our model. Finally, our analysis indicates that the performance of location prediction varies significantly with the chosen next travel mode by the individual. These results show potential for a more systematic consideration of additional dimensions of travel behaviour in human mobility prediction tasks. The source code of our model and experiments is available at https://github.com/mie-lab/location-mode-prediction.
Accurate activity location prediction is a crucial component of many mobility applications and is particularly required to develop personalized, sustainable transportation systems. Despite the widespread adoption of deep learning models, next location prediction models lack a comprehensive discussion and integration of mobility-related spatio-temporal contexts. Here, we utilize a multi-head self-attentional (MHSA) neural network that learns location transition patterns from historical location visits, their visit time and activity duration, as well as their surrounding land use functions, to infer an individual's next location. Specifically, we adopt point-of-interest data and latent Dirichlet allocation for representing locations' land use contexts at multiple spatial scales, generate embedding vectors of the spatio-temporal features, and learn to predict the next location with an MHSA network. Through experiments on two large-scale GNSS tracking datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other state-of-the-art prediction models, and reveal the contribution of various spatio-temporal contexts to the model's performance. Moreover, we find that the model trained on population data achieves higher prediction performance with fewer parameters than individual-level models due to learning from collective movement patterns. We also reveal mobility conducted in the recent past and one week before has the largest influence on the current prediction, showing that learning from a subset of the historical mobility is sufficient to obtain an accurate location prediction result. We believe that the proposed model is vital for context-aware mobility prediction. The gained insights will help to understand location prediction models and promote their implementation for mobility applications.
Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in mobility prediction tasks, yet their intricate internal workings pose challenges for interpretability, especially in comprehending how various aspects of mobility behavior affect predictions. This study introduces a causal intervention framework to assess the impact of mobility-related factors on neural networks designed for next location prediction -- a task focusing on predicting the immediate next location of an individual. To achieve this, we employ individual mobility models to synthesize location visit sequences and control behavior dynamics by intervening in their data generation process. We evaluate the interventional location sequences using mobility metrics and input them into well-trained networks to analyze performance variations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness in producing location sequences with distinct mobility behaviors, thereby facilitating the simulation of diverse yet realistic spatial and temporal changes. These changes result in performance fluctuations in next location prediction networks, revealing impacts of critical mobility behavior factors, including sequential patterns in location transitions, proclivity for exploring new locations, and preferences in location choices at population and individual levels. The gained insights hold value for the real-world application of mobility prediction networks, and the framework is expected to promote the use of causal inference to enhance the interpretability and robustness of neural networks in mobility applications.
Nina Wiedemann, Ourania Kounadi, Martin Raubal et al.
Concerns about data privacy are omnipresent, given the increasing usage of digital applications and their underlying business model that includes selling user data. Location data is particularly sensitive since they allow us to infer activity patterns and interests of users, e.g., by categorizing visited locations based on nearby points of interest (POI). On top of that, machine learning methods provide new powerful tools to interpret big data. In light of these considerations, we raise the following question: What is the actual risk that realistic, machine learning based privacy attacks can obtain meaningful semantic information from raw location data, subject to inaccuracies in the data? In response, we present a systematic analysis of two attack scenarios, namely location categorization and user profiling. Experiments on the Foursquare dataset and tracking data demonstrate the potential for abuse of high-quality spatial information, leading to a significant privacy loss even with location inaccuracy of up to 200m. With location obfuscation of more than 1 km, spatial information hardly adds any value, but a high privacy risk solely from temporal information remains. The availability of public context data such as POIs plays a key role in inference based on spatial information. Our findings point out the risks of ever-growing databases of tracking data and spatial context data, which policymakers should consider for privacy regulations, and which could guide individuals in their personal location protection measures.
Alexander Timans, Nina Wiedemann, Nishant Kumar et al.
Despite the strong predictive performance of deep learning models for traffic prediction, their widespread deployment in real-world intelligent transportation systems has been restrained by a lack of interpretability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods provide an approach to induce probabilistic reasoning, improve decision-making and enhance model deployment potential. To gain a comprehensive picture of the usefulness of existing UQ methods for traffic prediction and the relation between obtained uncertainties and city-wide traffic dynamics, we investigate their application to a large-scale image-based traffic dataset spanning multiple cities and time periods. We compare two epistemic and two aleatoric UQ methods on both temporal and spatio-temporal transfer tasks, and find that meaningful uncertainty estimates can be recovered. We further demonstrate how uncertainty estimates can be employed for unsupervised outlier detection on changes in city traffic dynamics. We find that our approach can capture both temporal and spatial effects on traffic behaviour in a representative case study for the city of Moscow. Our work presents a further step towards boosting uncertainty awareness in traffic prediction tasks, and aims to highlight the value contribution of UQ methods to a better understanding of city traffic dynamics.
Urban land use classification and mapping are critical for urban planning, resource management, and environmental monitoring. Existing remote sensing techniques often lack precision in complex urban environments due to the absence of ground-level details. Unlike aerial perspectives, street view images provide a ground-level view that captures more human and social activities relevant to land use in complex urban scenes. Existing street view-based methods primarily rely on supervised classification, which is challenged by the scarcity of high-quality labeled data and the difficulty of generalizing across diverse urban landscapes. This study introduces an unsupervised contrastive clustering model for street view images with a built-in geographical prior, to enhance clustering performance. When combined with a simple visual assignment of the clusters, our approach offers a flexible and customizable solution to land use mapping, tailored to the specific needs of urban planners. We experimentally show that our method can generate land use maps from geotagged street view image datasets of two cities. As our methodology relies on the universal spatial coherence of geospatial data ("Tobler's law"), it can be adapted to various settings where street view images are available, to enable scalable, unsupervised land use mapping and updating. The code will be available at https://github.com/lin102/CCGP.
Advances in traffic forecasting technology can greatly impact urban mobility. In the traffic4cast competition, the task of short-term traffic prediction is tackled in unprecedented detail, with traffic volume and speed information available at 5 minute intervals and high spatial resolution. To improve generalization to unknown cities, as required in the 2021 extended challenge, we propose to predict small quadratic city sections, rather than processing a full-city-raster at once. At test time, breaking down the test data into spatially-cropped overlapping snippets improves stability and robustness of the final predictions, since multiple patches covering one cell can be processed independently. With the performance on the traffic4cast test data and further experiments on a validation set it is shown that patch-wise prediction indeed improves accuracy. Further advantages can be gained with a Unet++ architecture and with an increasing number of patches per sample processed at test time. We conclude that our snippet-based method, combined with other successful network architectures proposed in the competition, can leverage performance, in particular on unseen cities. All source code is available at https://github.com/NinaWie/NeurIPS2021-traffic4cast.
Understanding and modeling human mobility is central to challenges in transport planning, sustainable urban design, and public health. Despite decades of effort, simulating individual mobility remains challenging because of its complex, context-dependent, and exploratory nature. Here, we present MobilityGen, a deep generative model that produces realistic mobility trajectories spanning days to weeks at large spatial scales. By linking behavioral attributes with environmental context, MobilityGen reproduces key patterns such as scaling laws for location visits, activity time allocation, and the coupled evolution of travel mode and destination choices. It reflects spatio-temporal variability and generates diverse, plausible, and novel mobility patterns consistent with the built environment. Beyond standard validation, MobilityGen yields insights not attainable with earlier models, including how access to urban space varies across travel modes and how co-presence dynamics shape social exposure and segregation. Our work establishes a new framework for mobility simulation, paving the way for fine-grained, data-driven studies of human behavior and its societal implications.
Detecting travel modes from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) trajectories is essential for understanding individual travel behavior and a prerequisite for achieving sustainable transport systems. While studies have acknowledged the benefits of incorporating geospatial context information into travel mode detection models, few have summarized context modeling approaches and analyzed the significance of these context features, hindering the development of an efficient model. Here, we identify context representations from related work and propose an analytical pipeline to assess the contribution of geospatial context information for travel mode detection based on a random forest model and the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. Through experiments on a large-scale GNSS tracking dataset, we report that features describing relationships with infrastructure networks, such as the distance to the railway or road network, significantly contribute to the model's prediction. Moreover, features related to the geospatial point entities help identify public transport travel, but most land-use and land-cover features barely contribute to the task. We finally reveal that geospatial contexts have distinct contributions in identifying different travel modes, providing insights into selecting appropriate context information and modeling approaches. The results from this study enhance our understanding of the relationship between movement and geospatial context and guide the implementation of effective and efficient transport mode detection models.
Detecting, predicting, and alleviating traffic congestion are targeted at improving the level of service of the transportation network. With increasing access to larger datasets of higher resolution, the relevance of deep learning for such tasks is increasing. Several comprehensive survey papers in recent years have summarised the deep learning applications in the transportation domain. However, the system dynamics of the transportation network vary greatly between the non-congested state and the congested state -- thereby necessitating the need for a clear understanding of the challenges specific to congestion prediction. In this survey, we present the current state of deep learning applications in the tasks related to detection, prediction, and alleviation of congestion. Recurring and non-recurring congestion are discussed separately. Our survey leads us to uncover inherent challenges and gaps in the current state of research. Finally, we present some suggestions for future research directions as answers to the identified challenges.