Carlos Caicedo

Ziyi Zhao, Chen Luo, Jin Zhao et al.

The number of daily small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) operations in uncontrolled low altitude airspace is expected to reach into the millions. UAS Traffic Management (UTM) is an emerging concept aiming at the safe and efficient management of such very dense traffic, but few studies are addressing the policies to accommodate such demand and the required ground infrastructure in suburban or urban environments. Searching for the optimal air traffic management policy is a combinatorial optimization problem with intractable complexity when the number of sUAS and the constraints increases. As the demands on the airspace increase and traffic patterns get complicated, it is difficult to forecast the potential low altitude airspace hotspots and the corresponding ground resource requirements. This work presents a Multi-agent Air Traffic and Resource Usage Simulation (MATRUS) framework that aims for fast evaluation of different air traffic management policies and the relationship between policy, environment and resulting traffic patterns. It can also be used as a tool to decide the resource distribution and launch site location in the planning of a next-generation smart city. As a case study, detailed comparisons are provided for the sUAS flight time, conflict ratio, cellular communication resource usage, for a managed (centrally coordinated) and unmanaged (free flight) traffic scenario.

Ziyi Zhao, Zhao Jin, Wentian Bai et al.

The number of daily sUAS operations in uncontrolled low altitude airspace is expected to reach into the millions in a few years. Therefore, UAS density prediction has become an emerging and challenging problem. In this paper, a deep learning-based UAS instantaneous density prediction model is presented. The model takes two types of data as input: 1) the historical density generated from the historical data, and 2) the future sUAS mission information. The architecture of our model contains four components: Historical Density Formulation module, UAS Mission Translation module, Mission Feature Extraction module, and Density Map Projection module. The training and testing data are generated by a python based simulator which is inspired by the multi-agent air traffic resource usage simulator (MATRUS) framework. The quality of prediction is measured by the correlation score and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) between the predicted value and simulated value. The experimental results demonstrate outstanding performance of the deep learning-based UAS density predictor. Compared to the baseline models, for simplified traffic scenario where no-fly zones and safe distance among sUASs are not considered, our model improves the prediction accuracy by more than 15.2% and its correlation score reaches 0.947. In a more realistic scenario, where the no-fly zone avoidance and the safe distance among sUASs are maintained using A* routing algorithm, our model can still achieve 0.823 correlation score. Meanwhile, the AUROC can reach 0.951 for the hot spot prediction.