Feras Saad

Abtin Molavi, Feras Saad, Aws Albarghouthi

Quantum error correction (QEC) enables reliable computation on noisy hardware by encoding logical information across many physical qubits and periodically measuring parities to detect errors. A decoder is the classical algorithm that uses these measurements to infer which error most likely occurred, so that the system can correct it. The decoder's accuracy-how rarely it makes the wrong guess-directly determines the scale of quantum computation that can be reliably executed. With a wealth of competing decoding algorithms, a QEC system designer needs reliable methods to evaluate them. Today, the dominant approach is to evaluate decoders using Monte Carlo simulation. However, simulation has several drawbacks such as requiring many samples to produce low variance estimates. In this work, we develop a new systematic analysis for evaluating decoders. We introduce a novel formal semantics of a core language for QEC programs that captures the de facto standard Stim circuit format, providing a principled theoretical foundation for the emerging space of fault-tolerant quantum systems design. Given a QEC program and a decoder, our verifier can quantify both the decoder accuracy and the decoder robustness to drift in physical error rate. Our approach has two key components: (i) a structured search over the space of possible errors; and (ii) a constrained polynomial optimization kernel. A thorough empirical evaluation of our approach suggests that it can outperform simulation, especially in low error rate regimes, and that it can be deployed to quantify decoder robustness over an interval of physical error rates.

Feras Saad, Jacob Burnim, Colin Carroll et al.

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in diverse applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As the scale of modern datasets increases, there is a growing need for statistical methods that are flexible enough to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and scalable enough to handle many observations. This article introduces the Bayesian Neural Field (BayesNF), a domain-general statistical model that infers rich spatiotemporal probability distributions for data-analysis tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and variography. BayesNF integrates a deep neural network architecture for high-capacity function estimation with hierarchical Bayesian inference for robust predictive uncertainty quantification. Evaluations against prominent baselines show that BayesNF delivers improvements on prediction problems from climate and public health data containing tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements. Accompanying the paper is an open-source software package (https://github.com/google/bayesnf) that runs on GPU and TPU accelerators through the JAX machine learning platform.

Geonho Hwang, Wonyeol Lee, Yeachan Park et al.

The classical universal approximation (UA) theorem for neural networks establishes mild conditions under which a feedforward neural network can approximate a continuous function $f$ with arbitrary accuracy. A recent result shows that neural networks also enjoy a more general interval universal approximation (IUA) theorem, in the sense that the abstract interpretation semantics of the network using the interval domain can approximate the direct image map of $f$ (i.e., the result of applying $f$ to a set of inputs) with arbitrary accuracy. These theorems, however, rest on the unrealistic assumption that the neural network computes over infinitely precise real numbers, whereas their software implementations in practice compute over finite-precision floating-point numbers. An open question is whether the IUA theorem still holds in the floating-point setting. This paper introduces the first IUA theorem for floating-point neural networks that proves their remarkable ability to perfectly capture the direct image map of any rounded target function $f$, showing no limits exist on their expressiveness. Our IUA theorem in the floating-point setting exhibits material differences from the real-valued setting, which reflects the fundamental distinctions between these two computational models. This theorem also implies surprising corollaries, which include (i) the existence of provably robust floating-point neural networks; and (ii) the computational completeness of the class of straight-line programs that use only floating-point additions and multiplications for the class of all floating-point programs that halt.

Feras Saad, Leonardo Casarsa, Vikash Mansinghka

Databases are widespread, yet extracting relevant data can be difficult. Without substantial domain knowledge, multivariate search queries often return sparse or uninformative results. This paper introduces an approach for searching structured data based on probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes. Users specify queries in a probabilistic language that combines standard SQL database search operators with an information theoretic ranking function called predictive relevance. Predictive relevance can be calculated by a fast sparse matrix algorithm based on posterior samples from CrossCat, a nonparametric Bayesian model for high-dimensional, heterogeneously-typed data tables. The result is a flexible search technique that applies to a broad class of information retrieval problems, which we integrate into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform for probabilistic data analysis. This paper demonstrates applications to databases of US colleges, global macroeconomic indicators of public health, and classic cars. We found that human evaluators often prefer the results from probabilistic search to results from a standard baseline.

Ulrich Schaechtle, Feras Saad, Alexey Radul et al.

There is a widespread need for techniques that can discover structure from time series data. Recently introduced techniques such as Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) provide a way to find structure within a single time series by searching through a space of covariance kernels that is generated using a simple grammar. While ABCD can identify a broad class of temporal patterns, it is difficult to extend and can be brittle in practice. This paper shows how to extend ABCD by formulating it in terms of probabilistic program synthesis. The key technical ideas are to (i) represent models using abstract syntax trees for a domain-specific probabilistic language, and (ii) represent the time series model prior, likelihood, and search strategy using probabilistic programs in a sufficiently expressive language. The final probabilistic program is written in under 70 lines of probabilistic code in Venture. The paper demonstrates an application to time series clustering that involves a non-parametric extension to ABCD, experiments for interpolation and extrapolation on real-world econometric data, and improvements in accuracy over both non-parametric and standard regression baselines.

Feras Saad, Vikash Mansinghka

Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabilistic programming, information theory, and non-parametric Bayes. It shows how to use Bayesian non-parametric modeling to (i) build an ensemble of joint probability models for all the variables; (ii) efficiently detect marginal independencies; and (iii) estimate the conditional mutual information between arbitrary subsets of variables, subject to a broad class of constraints. Users can access these capabilities using BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform for probabilistic data analysis, by writing queries in a simple, SQL-like language. This paper demonstrates empirically that the method can (i) detect context-specific (in)dependencies on challenging synthetic problems and (ii) yield improved sensitivity and specificity over baselines from statistics and machine learning, on a real-world database of over 300 sparsely observed indicators of macroeconomic development and public health.

Feras Saad, Vikash Mansinghka

Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, discriminative machine learning, clustering algorithms, dimensionality reduction, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We also demonstrate the integration of CGPMs into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that can express data analysis tasks using a modeling language and a structured query language. The practical value is illustrated in two ways. First, CGPMs are used in an analysis that identifies satellite data records which probably violate Kepler's Third Law, by composing causal probabilistic programs with non-parametric Bayes in under 50 lines of probabilistic code. Second, for several representative data analysis tasks, we report on lines of code and accuracy measurements of various CGPMs, plus comparisons with standard baseline solutions from Python and MATLAB libraries.