Rishank Kanaparti

Rohan Sukumaran, Parth Patwa, T V Sethuraman et al.

It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed through diagnostic and antibody testing data. However, despite the increasing availability of COVID-19 testing, the required level has not been met in most parts of the globe, introducing a need for an alternative method for communities to determine disease prevalence. This is further complicated by the observation that COVID-19 prevalence and spread varies across different spatial, temporal, and demographics. In this study, we understand trends in the spread of COVID-19 by utilizing the results of self-reported COVID-19 symptoms surveys as an alternative to COVID-19 testing reports. This allows us to assess community disease prevalence, even in areas with low COVID-19 testing ability. Using individually reported symptom data from various populations, our method predicts the likely percentage of the population that tested positive for COVID-19. We do so with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.14 and Mean Relative Error (MRE) of 60.40\% with 95\% confidence interval as (60.12, 60.67). This implies that our model predicts +/- 1140 cases than the original in a population of 1 million. In addition, we forecast the location-wise percentage of the population testing positive for the next 30 days using self-reported symptoms data from previous days. The MAE for this method is as low as 0.15 (MRE of 23.61\% with 95\% confidence interval as (23.6, 13.7)) for New York. We present an analysis of these results, exposing various clinical attributes of interest across different demographics. Lastly, we qualitatively analyze how various policy enactments (testing, curfew) affect the prevalence of COVID-19 in a community.

Sheshank Shankar, Rishank Kanaparti, Ayush Chopra et al.

As we await a vaccine, social-distancing via efficient contact tracing has emerged as the primary health strategy to dampen the spread of COVID-19. To enable efficient digital contact tracing, we present a novel system to estimate pair-wise individual proximity, via a joint model of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) signals with other on-device sensors (accelerometer, magnetometer, gyroscope). We explore multiple ways of interpreting the sensor data stream (time-series, histogram, etc) and use several statistical and deep learning methods to learn representations for sensing proximity. We report the normalized Decision Cost Function (nDCF) metric and analyze the differential impact of the various input signals, as well as discuss various challenges associated with this task.

Ramesh Raskar, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar et al.

Containment, the key strategy in quickly halting an epidemic, requires rapid identification and quarantine of the infected individuals, determination of whom they have had close contact with in the previous days and weeks, and decontamination of locations the infected individual has visited. Achieving containment demands accurate and timely collection of the infected individual's location and contact history. Traditionally, this process is labor intensive, susceptible to memory errors, and fraught with privacy concerns. With the recent almost ubiquitous availability of smart phones, many people carry a tool which can be utilized to quickly identify an infected individual's contacts during an epidemic, such as the current 2019 novel Coronavirus crisis. Unfortunately, the very same first-generation contact tracing tools have been used to expand mass surveillance, limit individual freedoms and expose the most private details about individuals. We seek to outline the different technological approaches to mobile-phone based contact-tracing to date and elaborate on the opportunities and the risks that these technologies pose to individuals and societies. We describe advanced security enhancing approaches that can mitigate these risks and describe trade-offs one must make when developing and deploying any mass contact-tracing technology. With this paper, our aim is to continue to grow the conversation regarding contact-tracing for epidemic and pandemic containment and discuss opportunities to advance this space. We invite feedback and discussion.